2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
With only 672 hours remaining in October after today...a sprint for the finish line isn't far off, especially here in the tampa bay area where we are about to celebrate a century of no MH hits. My gut has been pinging "we're good" but i could be confusing what i want with what is most probable. Water temps locally are warm and dearth of frontal activity is preserving that warmth with higher humidity bringing a return of very warm nights...but the clock is relentless.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
not to mention, La Ni ... oops - La Shear 

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Andy D
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
CFS is continuing to show two distinct storms after mid-October--one a Mitch-esque track around the same time frame and another originating in the central Caribbean in November and taking a Lenny-1999/Klaus-1984/Omar-2008 type track, strengthening as it enters the Atlantic.
It looks like, if anything, we're more likely to see a 2016-like season for the rest of the year, where we could have a few strong systems, rather than anything resembling last October/November.
It looks like, if anything, we're more likely to see a 2016-like season for the rest of the year, where we could have a few strong systems, rather than anything resembling last October/November.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Hammy wrote:CFS is continuing to show two distinct storms after mid-October--one a Mitch-esque track around the same time frame and another originating in the central Caribbean in November and taking a Lenny-1999/Klaus-1984/Omar-2008 type track, strengthening as it enters the Atlantic.
It looks like, if anything, we're more likely to see a 2016-like season for the rest of the year, where we could have a few strong systems, rather than anything resembling last October/November.
I mean, if we see anything like last year, we would end with 9 major hurricanes this year after the season finishes. Yeah, I usually tend to be a bullish tracker, but even I think this year won't feature activity like last year in October and November with all those major hurricanes and landfalls in what should be the winddown period of hurricane season. Now I still think we will likely see around 2 more majors before the season ends, and while it's very far out in time it would be very interesting if we get another eastward moving hurricane in the Caribbean this year. Clearly that is a very unusual track to take
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
The 2021-10-03 00Z CFSv2 run shows multiple possible storms from October to December. While the December storms might be the CFSv2 snorting more cocaine than Pablo Escobar ever sold, if they continue, 2021 could have a very 2005-esque end to its season.
The first storm mentioned heads out to sea; however, it almost impacts the East Coast. Given its presentation on the model as well as its location, it will likely peak at as a moderate tropical storm or weak Category I if this even develops.
The second storm mentioned is a similar story; however, there have been situations, such as Ophelia (2017) and Epsilon (2020) in which storms in the subtropics during mid-October developed into Category III hurricanes. so it could become a Category III hurricane.
The third storm mentioned is an odd-ball, for it would be a climatological first: a Cape Verde storm in late October. Given its presentation on the model, if it develops at all, it would probably be nothing but a tropical fish storm.
The fourth storm mentioned is a similar story; its weak presence on the CFSv2 indicates at most a tropical storm.
The fifth storm mentioned could become a powerful major hurricane. Given its location and presentation on the model, as well as given a La Nina, this storm could become a Category III, Category IV, or Category V hurricane. People in Central America, the Gulf Coast, and the Antilles should takes notes on this system.
The sixth storm mentioned develops from a similar trough as the fifth storm mentioned; however, its presentation of the model as well as its located support a moderate tropical storm intensity.
The seventh storm mentioned develops from a subtropical source near Morocco. It is typical for tropical storms of such nature to develop in this part of the world during this time of year: Delta (2005), Pablo (2019), and Theta (2020) just to name a few. Its presentation on the model, as well as constant suboptimal SSTs in the region do not support anything more than a Category I hurricane.
The eight storm mentioned is a similar story to the third storm mentioned; it would be a climatological first, for there has never been a Cape Verde system this late in a season. However, its presentation on the model supports a moderate tropical storm.
The ninth storm mentioned is almost a carbon copy of Omar (2008). It develops in the Caribbean and continues into the subtropics, impacting Hispaniola. Like Omar (2008), this system could develop into a strong major hurricane (perhaps of Category IV) intensity, and its model presentation could indicate such a scenario.
The tenth storm mentioned is almost a carbon copy of Lili (1984) or Zeta (2005). Its look on the model supports tropical storm intensity initially. However, later on, it could become a Category I hurricane.
The eleventh storm mentioned is almost a carbon copy of Epsilon (2005). It looks like a potent storm on the CFSv2, and it could become a Category I or Category II hurricane.
The twelfth storm mentioned is a similar story; it could become a hurricane, and it could also bring impacts to Portugal.
Please take this post with the entire world supply of salt; we will know what will happen once it happens.
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on October 16 that almost impacts the East Coast
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on October 16 that heads out to sea
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on October 22 near Cape Verde
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on October 23 that forms in the Western Main Development region
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on October 25 that impacts Belize (!)
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on October 30 that heads out to sea
- A potential tropical/subtropical cyclone forming on November 2 near Morocco
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on November 9 near Cape Verde
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on November 11 that impacts Hispaniola (!)
- A potential tropical cyclone forming on December 5 that heads out to sea
- A potential tropical/subtropical cyclone forming on December 9 near Portugal
- A potential tropical/subtropical cyclone forming on December 25 near Portugal (!)
The first storm mentioned heads out to sea; however, it almost impacts the East Coast. Given its presentation on the model as well as its location, it will likely peak at as a moderate tropical storm or weak Category I if this even develops.
The second storm mentioned is a similar story; however, there have been situations, such as Ophelia (2017) and Epsilon (2020) in which storms in the subtropics during mid-October developed into Category III hurricanes. so it could become a Category III hurricane.
The third storm mentioned is an odd-ball, for it would be a climatological first: a Cape Verde storm in late October. Given its presentation on the model, if it develops at all, it would probably be nothing but a tropical fish storm.
The fourth storm mentioned is a similar story; its weak presence on the CFSv2 indicates at most a tropical storm.
The fifth storm mentioned could become a powerful major hurricane. Given its location and presentation on the model, as well as given a La Nina, this storm could become a Category III, Category IV, or Category V hurricane. People in Central America, the Gulf Coast, and the Antilles should takes notes on this system.
The sixth storm mentioned develops from a similar trough as the fifth storm mentioned; however, its presentation of the model as well as its located support a moderate tropical storm intensity.
The seventh storm mentioned develops from a subtropical source near Morocco. It is typical for tropical storms of such nature to develop in this part of the world during this time of year: Delta (2005), Pablo (2019), and Theta (2020) just to name a few. Its presentation on the model, as well as constant suboptimal SSTs in the region do not support anything more than a Category I hurricane.
The eight storm mentioned is a similar story to the third storm mentioned; it would be a climatological first, for there has never been a Cape Verde system this late in a season. However, its presentation on the model supports a moderate tropical storm.
The ninth storm mentioned is almost a carbon copy of Omar (2008). It develops in the Caribbean and continues into the subtropics, impacting Hispaniola. Like Omar (2008), this system could develop into a strong major hurricane (perhaps of Category IV) intensity, and its model presentation could indicate such a scenario.
The tenth storm mentioned is almost a carbon copy of Lili (1984) or Zeta (2005). Its look on the model supports tropical storm intensity initially. However, later on, it could become a Category I hurricane.
The eleventh storm mentioned is almost a carbon copy of Epsilon (2005). It looks like a potent storm on the CFSv2, and it could become a Category I or Category II hurricane.
The twelfth storm mentioned is a similar story; it could become a hurricane, and it could also bring impacts to Portugal.
Please take this post with the entire world supply of salt; we will know what will happen once it happens.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
AlphaToOmega wrote:The third storm mentioned is an odd-ball, for it would be a climatological first: a Cape Verde storm in late October. Given its presentation on the model, if it develops at all, it would probably be nothing but a tropical fish storm.
AlphaToOmega wrote:The eight storm mentioned is a similar story to the third storm mentioned; it would be a climatological first, for there has never been a Cape Verde system this late in a season. However, its presentation on the model supports a moderate tropical storm.
Just want to add, neither of these would be unprecedented. There are quite a few MDR/CV TCs in the historical record for November and December. The latest formed December 7th (two cases).
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
I think people really need to start specifying what exactly they consider the MDR when they post about it, because I'm confused by this talk of unprecedented MDR activity in late October like it's never happened. Tomas formed in late October east of the Windward islands in 2010. The MDR winds down as we march later into the season, but it doesn't mean it can't produce.
I think because the threat to the CONUS from MDR storms decreases the farther we get into September and now into October, some call for the MDR to completely die. The MDR can still produce, especially in a more favorable season. The chances of getting an Irma in early October is a lot less than in early September, but a storm doesn't have to be a major or a CONUS threat to count towards MDR production.
I think because the threat to the CONUS from MDR storms decreases the farther we get into September and now into October, some call for the MDR to completely die. The MDR can still produce, especially in a more favorable season. The chances of getting an Irma in early October is a lot less than in early September, but a storm doesn't have to be a major or a CONUS threat to count towards MDR production.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Chris90 wrote:I think people really need to start specifying what exactly they consider the MDR when they post about it, because I'm confused by this talk of unprecedented MDR activity in late October like it's never happened. Tomas formed in late October east of the Windward islands in 2010. The MDR winds down as we march later into the season, but it doesn't mean it can't produce.
I think because the threat to the CONUS from MDR storms decreases the farther we get into September and now into October, some call for the MDR to completely die. The MDR can still produce, especially in a more favorable season. The chances of getting an Irma in early October is a lot less than in early September, but a storm doesn't have to be a major or a CONUS threat to count towards MDR production.
I said CAPE VERDE, not MDR activity.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
AlphaToOmega wrote:Chris90 wrote:I think people really need to start specifying what exactly they consider the MDR when they post about it, because I'm confused by this talk of unprecedented MDR activity in late October like it's never happened. Tomas formed in late October east of the Windward islands in 2010. The MDR winds down as we march later into the season, but it doesn't mean it can't produce.
I think because the threat to the CONUS from MDR storms decreases the farther we get into September and now into October, some call for the MDR to completely die. The MDR can still produce, especially in a more favorable season. The chances of getting an Irma in early October is a lot less than in early September, but a storm doesn't have to be a major or a CONUS threat to count towards MDR production.
I said CAPE VERDE, not MDR activity.
This might fall as slightly off topic, but when you look up "Main Development Region", most of those maps include a decent chunk or even the entire Caribbean Sea as the MDR, which I honestly did not know until now. So I think a good rule of thumb is to say "The MDR becomes less favorable from east to west overtime, because the western part of the MDR can still be highly favorable in October as last year showed us.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
WiscoWx02 wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:Chris90 wrote:I think people really need to start specifying what exactly they consider the MDR when they post about it, because I'm confused by this talk of unprecedented MDR activity in late October like it's never happened. Tomas formed in late October east of the Windward islands in 2010. The MDR winds down as we march later into the season, but it doesn't mean it can't produce.
I think because the threat to the CONUS from MDR storms decreases the farther we get into September and now into October, some call for the MDR to completely die. The MDR can still produce, especially in a more favorable season. The chances of getting an Irma in early October is a lot less than in early September, but a storm doesn't have to be a major or a CONUS threat to count towards MDR production.
I said CAPE VERDE, not MDR activity.
This might fall as slightly off topic, but when you look up "Main Development Region", most of those maps include a decent chunk or even the entire Caribbean Sea as the MDR, which I honestly did not know until now. So I think a good rule of thumb is to say "The MDR becomes less favorable from east to west overtime, because the western part of the MDR can still be highly favorable in October as last year showed us.
Yeah the MDR is a very variable term that doesn't seem to have a clear west definition (almost all sources do stick to the 10N - 20N rule). Usually when the MDR is mentioned on Storm2k, the eastern part of the MDR is meant so east of the islands. The regions to the west of it are commonly referred to as the WCar and (the less frequently used) ECar. We probably make this distinction because the open ocean MDR and the Caribbean have fundamentally different TC formation patterns (long trackers vs. late season bombs), peak phases etc. so it makes more sense to classify them seperately. The definition that includes the Caribbean would f.e. make Wilma or Iota an 'MDR' storm, even though I think most people on this forum would not associate those storms with the MDR. But yeah there doesn't really seem to be a single definition (unless some of the sources are just wrong), so the confusion is very understandable.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
With Sam and Victor on their way out we may have our first true lull in the season since August 2nd. This assumes that the Bahamas AOI doesn't amount to anything and nothing else comes into the picture soon. It's hard to really emphasize how remarkable a >2 month no lull period really is. Even 2020 didn't have such an extended period with trackable features.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Woofde wrote:With Sam and Victor on their way out we may have our first true lull in the season since August 2nd. This assumes that the Bahamas AOI doesn't amount to anything and nothing else comes into the picture soon. It's hard to really emphasize how remarkable a >2 month no lull period really is. Even 2020 didn't have such an extended period with trackable features.
I gotta say, at this point in time, 2021 has featured much more tremendous quality than 2020, with its long-tracked Sam and Larry especially. 2021 has definitely felt like a more typical La Nina season than 2020 by this point in time, if anything. While in terms of CONUS impacts 2021 has so far not been as bad as 2020 in terms of quantity of hurricane and TS hits on the US by this point in time thankfully (although we still cannot discount the massive horrors of Ida), you cannot argue against how 2021's ACE count had been performing very well and has arguably seen the best MDR Cape Verde performance since 2017 or 2018. Now what will October hold? I still think we are not out of the woods yet, but we'll have to wait and find out.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Confession: I've started consuming my hurricane season supplies. after such a terrifying late August, the lack of landfall threats in september and so far in october....this season is no longer feared for me. Let's unring the bell and tempt fate! remainder season cancel!....semi satire but mostly not..
(this post may age very poorly...or not)..
(this post may age very poorly...or not)..
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
psyclone wrote:Confession: I've started consuming my hurricane season supplies. after such a terrifying late August, the lack of landfall threats in september and so far in october....this season is no longer feared for me. Let's unring the bell and tempt fate! remainder season cancel!....semi satire but mostly not..
(this post may age very poorly...or not)..
I’m right there with you seeing as the models are lackluster at best into the heart of West Caribbean season. The GFS is even trying to bait us with the retrograding storm into the Space Coast again

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
psyclone wrote:Confession: I've started consuming my hurricane season supplies. after such a terrifying late August, the lack of landfall threats in september and so far in october....this season is no longer feared for me. Let's unring the bell and tempt fate! remainder season cancel!....semi satire but mostly not..
(this post may age very poorly...or not)..
Could age poorly, but I think more unlikely than likely at this point. I'll be shocked to see anything substantial after Sam to tell you the truth. The Western Pacific signal is getting stronger, and I think that is where the main forcing is going to be located. This La Nina is not behaving like a normal La Nina in my opinion cause of all the TUTTS we have had in the Atlantic this year(Andy Hazelton and others have discussed this), the warm fall pattern ahead across the US that is typical of El Nino years and Western Pacific activity potential. No much is currently screaming active October or November like it was a few weeks ago IMO.
Yeah the SSTA's are something, but SSTA's alone are meaningless if you don't have a favorable kinematic/thermodynamic environment to support rising air in the Atlantic. Yes, some Kelvin Waves may track through, but if they come through when the Western Pacific is still rolling, it's gonna be hard to get that focus we need in the Atlantic to see a bigger ticket storm. Just my opinion. My post could age poorly too so we'll go down together if this ends up being wrong. My bold prediction, if we do see anything over the next month or two, it will be more subtropical based and strung out to heck.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
WiscoWx02 wrote:psyclone wrote:Confession: I've started consuming my hurricane season supplies. after such a terrifying late August, the lack of landfall threats in september and so far in october....this season is no longer feared for me. Let's unring the bell and tempt fate! remainder season cancel!....semi satire but mostly not..
(this post may age very poorly...or not)..
Could age poorly, but I think more unlikely than likely at this point. I'll be shocked to see anything substantial after Sam to tell you the truth. The Western Pacific signal is getting stronger, and I think that is where the main forcing is going to be located. This La Nina is not behaving like a normal La Nina in my opinion cause of all the TUTTS we have had in the Atlantic this year(Andy Hazelton and others have discussed this), the warm fall pattern ahead across the US that is typical of El Nino years and Western Pacific activity potential. No much is currently screaming active October or November like it was a few weeks ago IMO.
Yeah the SSTA's are something, but SSTA's alone are meaningless if you don't have a favorable kinematic/thermodynamic environment to support rising air in the Atlantic. Yes, some Kelvin Waves may track through, but if they come through when the Western Pacific is still rolling, it's gonna be hard to get that focus we need in the Atlantic to see a bigger ticket storm. Just my opinion. My post could age poorly too so we'll go down together if this ends up being wrong. My bold prediction, if we do see anything over the next month or two, it will be more subtropical based and strung out to heck.
I would be downcasting as well, if it wasn’t for how September really turned around with Sam once a weak Kelvin Wave came in. It just goes to show that you should never underestimate a Kelvin Wave when climo favors the Atlantic. Maybe the WPac activity will keep a lid on things, but we’ll see. Could just be a ton of monsoon slop over there.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Question if anybody remembers from tracking those seasons in particular, but how well did models foresee late season storms like Nate, Michael, Delta, or Eta?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
I don't think WPac activity really puts a lid on Atlantic. Eta formed and RI'ed at virtually the same time as Goni hit T8.0, and two weeks after that we still had Iota. Mindulle and Sam are virtually identical in terms of timing, intensity and evolution as well.
EPac (particularly the eastern part of the basin) is the one that can really hurt the Atlantic. But still, Cat 1 Nora and Cat 4 Ida coexisted, and given how EPac has been performing, if we do see anything, it is way more likely to be a Nora than a Patricia/Willa.
Remember, people were seriously suggesting the possibility of nothing in late September, 5 days before Sam formed.
EPac (particularly the eastern part of the basin) is the one that can really hurt the Atlantic. But still, Cat 1 Nora and Cat 4 Ida coexisted, and given how EPac has been performing, if we do see anything, it is way more likely to be a Nora than a Patricia/Willa.
Remember, people were seriously suggesting the possibility of nothing in late September, 5 days before Sam formed.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Category5Kaiju wrote:Question if anybody remembers from tracking those seasons in particular, but how well did models foresee late season storms like Nate, Michael, Delta, or Eta?
From NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT - HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL142018):

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Teban54 wrote:I don't think WPac activity really puts a lid on Atlantic. Eta formed and RI'ed at virtually the same time as Goni hit T8.0, and two weeks after that we still had Iota. Mindulle and Sam are virtually identical in terms of timing, intensity and evolution as well.
EPac (particularly the eastern part of the basin) is the one that can really hurt the Atlantic. But still, Cat 1 Nora and Cat 4 Ida coexisted, and given how EPac has been performing, if we do see anything, it is way more likely to be a Nora than a Patricia/Willa.
Remember, people were seriously suggesting the possibility of nothing in late September, 5 days before Sam formed.
WPAC activity does not limit the Atlantic directly. MJO phase can, and for the first half of October the MJO will be in phases 5-6 (inhibiting the ATL and amplifying the WPAC). There's pretty good agreement on a rising branch developing over the Atlantic after that. The current suppressive Kelvin wave should also move out by mid month.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
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