ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[FireRat]

Just read that Sam is tied with Edouard 1996 for 4th most consecutive days as a major hurricane! Truly remarkable!

[Extratropical94]

Farewell Sam!

53.75 ACE
12.00 TS days
11.00 hurricane days
9.75 cat 2 days
7.75 major hurricane days
6.75 cat 4 days

AL, 18, 2021100506, , BEST, 0, 500N, 393W, 70, 965, EX, 34, NEQ, 240, 270, 400, 300, 1012, 600, 60, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021100506, , BEST, 0, 500N, 393W, 70, 965, EX, 50, NEQ, 120, 150, 150, 60, 1012, 600, 60, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021100506, , BEST, 0, 500N, 393W, 70, 965, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 70, 70, 0, 1012, 600, 60, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[aspen]

Sam-I-am is now Sam-I-am-not.

That was fun to track, except last Sunday’s infuriating recon schedule. Also, Sam is currently the strongest storm of the satellite era to not get a Wikipedia article.

[cycloneye]

Ends at #5.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1445375025222127618

[WiscoWx02]

And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

[ElectricStorm]

And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 5... This is likely going to age extremely poorly

[Iceresistance]

And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 4... This is likely going to age extremely poorly

Maybe the end of the Cape Verde Hurricane season? I know that the Caribbean might develop storms through November/December . . .

[WiscoWx02]

And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 5... This is likely going to age extremely poorly

Can't cancel a season that has already been one hell of one, curtsey of Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas, and Sam

[InfernoFlameCat]

And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 5... This is likely going to age extremely poorly

Can't cancel a season that has already been one hell of one, curtsey of Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas, and Sam

This season is FAR from over.

[aspen]

I’m interested to see what CrazyC83’s proposed best track will be like and what changes he’d make.

[tomatkins]

Ends at #5.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1445375025222127618

Doesnt start with I, so of course it didnt crack the Mount Rushmore of Atlantic ACE champs.

[WiscoWx02]

Ends at #5.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1445375025222127618

Doesnt start with I, so of course it didnt crack the Mount Rushmore of Atlantic ACE champs.

All hail the dreaded I name...that's honestly hilarious in a way. It's always the I name.....

[ElectricStorm]

This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1445514169248202758

[KirbyDude25]

This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough

I agree completely! On a related note, where can I get a good image of Hurricane Sam at its peak(s)? I'd like to use it as my avatar.

[Ubuntwo]

This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough

I agree completely! On a related note, where can I get a good image of Hurricane Sam at its peak(s)? I'd like to use it as my avatar.

Here is one I saved.


A loop. This is when Sam's eye was its driest.

[KirbyDude25]

This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough

I agree completely! On a related note, where can I get a good image of Hurricane Sam at its peak(s)? I'd like to use it as my avatar.

Here is one I saved.
https://i.imgur.com/AMQzfND.jpg

A loop. This is when Sam's eye was its driest.
https://imgur.com/xo3pjJE

Thanks! It's my avatar now

[AnnularCane]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1445514169248202758

Sam is still showing off.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Here is my thinking on the BT for Sam.

AL182021, SAM, 58,
20210921, 1800, , LO, 9.3N, 28.6W, 25, 1011,
20210922, 0000, , LO, 9.5N, 29.5W, 30, 1010,
20210922, 0600, , LO, 9.7N, 30.5W, 35, 1008,
20210922, 1200, , LO, 9.9N, 31.6W, 35, 1008,
20210922, 1800, , TS, 10.1N, 33.0W, 35, 1008,
20210923, 0000, , TS, 10.2N, 34.3W, 40, 1007,
20210923, 0600, , TS, 10.4N, 35.8W, 45, 1005,
20210923, 1200, , TS, 10.6N, 37.4W, 50, 1003,
20210923, 1800, , TS, 10.9N, 38.9W, 55, 1001,
20210924, 0000, , TS, 11.1N, 40.3W, 60, 999,
20210924, 0600, , HU, 11.4N, 41.7W, 65, 997,
20210924, 1200, , HU, 11.6N, 43.1W, 70, 994,
20210924, 1800, , HU, 11.9N, 44.3W, 75, 991,
20210925, 0000, , HU, 12.3N, 45.4W, 85, 984,
20210925, 0600, , HU, 12.6N, 46.3W, 95, 976,
20210925, 1200, , HU, 12.8N, 47.2W, 105, 966,
20210925, 1800, , HU, 13.1N, 48.1W, 115, 954,
20210926, 0000, , HU, 13.4N, 48.7W, 125, 943,
20210926, 0600, , HU, 13.7N, 49.4W, 130, 939,
20210926, 1200, , HU, 13.9N, 50.0W, 135, 931,
20210926, 1800, , HU, 14.1N, 50.3W, 135, 927,
20210927, 0000, , HU, 14.5N, 50.6W, 125, 941,
20210927, 0600, , HU, 15.0N, 51.1W, 115, 952,
20210927, 1200, , HU, 15.4N, 51.7W, 100, 965,
20210927, 1800, , HU, 15.9N, 52.3W, 105, 958,
20210928, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 52.9W, 110, 955,
20210928, 0600, , HU, 17.0N, 53.5W, 115, 953,
20210928, 1200, , HU, 17.3N, 54.1W, 120, 950,
20210928, 1800, , HU, 17.7N, 54.7W, 120, 947,
20210929, 0000, , HU, 18.1N, 55.3W, 115, 949,
20210929, 0600, , HU, 18.6N, 55.9W, 110, 951,
20210929, 1200, , HU, 19.1N, 56.6W, 110, 953,
20210929, 1800, , HU, 19.7N, 57.3W, 115, 945,
20210930, 0000, , HU, 20.3N, 58.0W, 120, 940,
20210930, 0600, , HU, 21.0N, 58.8W, 125, 937,
20210930, 1200, , HU, 22.0N, 59.6W, 125, 938,
20210930, 1800, , HU, 23.0N, 60.4W, 125, 939,
20211001, 0000, , HU, 24.3N, 61.0W, 130, 936,
20211001, 0600, , HU, 25.8N, 61.6W, 135, 934,
20211001, 1200, , HU, 27.6N, 61.9W, 135, 932,
20211001, 1800, , HU, 29.2N, 61.9W, 130, 936,
20211002, 0000, , HU, 30.7N, 61.5W, 125, 941,
20211002, 0600, , HU, 32.1N, 61.0W, 120, 944,
20211002, 1200, , HU, 33.4N, 59.9W, 110, 949,
20211002, 1800, , HU, 34.8N, 58.7W, 105, 952,
20211003, 0000, , HU, 35.9N, 57.7W, 95, 956,
20211003, 0600, , HU, 36.7N, 56.6W, 85, 963,
20211003, 1200, , HU, 37.3N, 55.4W, 85, 961,
20211003, 1800, , HU, 38.0N, 53.8W, 90, 955,
20211004, 0000, , HU, 38.7N, 52.2W, 100, 947,
20211004, 0600, , HU, 39.8N, 49.9W, 95, 950,
20211004, 1200, , HU, 41.4N, 47.1W, 90, 952,
20211004, 1800, , HU, 43.8N, 43.6W, 80, 956,
20211005, 0000, , HU, 46.3N, 40.8W, 75, 957,
20211005, 0600, , EX, 49.7N, 39.6W, 70, 958,
20211005, 1200, , EX, 51.5N, 39.5W, 70, 956,
20211005, 1800, , EX, 51.0N, 39.3W, 75, 951,
20211006, 0000, , EX, 50.3N, 38.8W, 70, 955,
20211006, 0600, , EX, 49.4N, 36.9W, 65, 962,

* Genesis is basically unchanged. However, due to ASCAT passes and Dvorak readings at the time, I believe it was immediately a tropical storm.

* The early life of Sam is basically unchanged as well, other than a few minor tweaks to smooth things out.

* The first Recon flight supported the Dvorak intensity at the time (125 kt - T6.5) hence I am also assuming that, until the first major ERC (after that time) the satellite intensities were accurate.

* The initial peak of 135 kt (first of two such peaks) I believe was at 18Z on September 26. An argument could be made for 140 kt, although I don't see conclusive enough data to support going that high. The minimum pressure, which I analyzed at 927 mb, I believe occurred just before Recon got there and confirmed 929 mb at about 2130Z (with winds supporting 130 kt at the time based on 140 kt FL winds and SFMR of 133 kt but with a slightly degraded satellite).

* The first ERC meant significant structural changes took place. There was a major drop in pressure (from 927 mb to 965 mb in 18 hours) with winds I believe falling to 100 kt. After that, Recon consistently found winds stronger than the satellite signature suggested.

* Fluctuations took place from September 27 to 30, but it remained a major hurricane throughout.

* A second strengthening took place on October 1. At about 0600Z, the FL winds were 147 kt, and the next flight around 1500Z, they were 152 kt. SFMR readings peaked around 128 kt just before that 152 kt reading. All that lends itself to a second peak of 135 kt. Slow weakening followed, but it remained a major hurricane on October 2.

* After further weakening, a final strengthening episode occurred late on October 3. Discussions suggested that Sam was over a warm eddy and very warm water for its latitude. Dvorak estimates were around T5.0-5.5 and given the earlier trends, I believe the high end. That means, at 38.7N, I think Sam (briefly) became a major hurricane once again at 00Z on October 4 with 100 kt winds.

* The extratropical track is based on the movement relative to the trough it absorbed.