AJC3 wrote:This post bridges the Global Models and Tropical Waves threads. Currently, there's a wave over west-central Africa that all of the global models pick up on as it exits the coast during the next 3-4 days. Between days 4 and 10 days it tracks westward through the MDR with very little fanfare. In fact, the ECMWF dampens this wave out to the point that it's no longer identifiable in about 6-7 days. However, the CMC and GFS show this wave reaching the eastern Caribbean Sea by day 10.
https://i.imgur.com/6V0pHpp.png Looking further out well into the fantasy-land time frame, the GFS spins this wave up a tropical cyclone just south of Puerto Rico, then has it moving it WNW near the larger islands of the GA at 384hr. Sure, the extended range caveats apply, but I found it mildly interesting nonetheless. I attached a Current METEOSAT image of the wave next to the last panel of the 00Z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/NN3QSwJ.png
Since there's really not much at all to talk about in the Atlantic basin right now...as a REALLY late follow-up to my post from exactly a week ago, the low-latitude, low amplitude t-wave mentioned above is apparent on satellite this morning moving past 45W toward the Windward Islands. It's been tracked in the TWDAT since it moved off the COA several days ago. It has some pretty decent convection about its axis although the model guidance doesn't really do anything with it.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave along the coast of west Africa is along 16W
from 03N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from
12N-18N.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Oct 04 2021
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: all the
nearby precipitation is to the north and south of the monsoon
trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 20W and
40W.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 05 2021
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: The majority
of the widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
precipitation, that is near the ITCZ also, is within 240 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 440 nm to the west of
the tropical wave, from 04N to 11N.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 06 2021
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and widely
scattered strong is from the ITCZ to 14N between 36W and 50W.