WPAC: INVEST 94W

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 211007 0000 15.6N 137.7E WPAC 15 0
94W INVEST 211007 0600 15.8N 137.0E WPAC 15 1003

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS MULTIPLE VORTEXES ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, A
070401Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS SOME FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES
WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION
AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 070600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 14N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Almost there but not convinced there’s a well defined center.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ28 KNES 080007
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 15.1N

D. 139.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 4.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET IS EQUAL TO
1.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 2.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS AS FT IS LIMITED
TO CHANGE OF +0.5 IN FIRST 24 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Note that 94W is Kompasu. JMA decided to pick a midpoint between 93W and 94W for the center. TS winds are 380nm NE of their center for Kompasu. There are no squalls anywhere near JMA's center. JMA is moving the center location northeast to where 94W is located.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN22 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521Z OCT 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1N 134.1E TO 19.2N 129.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 133.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY
680 NM EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED >90NM TO THE EAST, EXTENDING
EQUATORWARD. A 081657Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND AN OVERALL ABSENCE OF
ORGANIZATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
LIGHT (<15 KNOTS) WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, AND A LARGE SWATH OF 25-30
KT WINDS DISPLACED >60 NM TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT
OVER THE MAIN CONVECTION, AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE WITH WARM
(30-31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (>100 KJ PER SQUARE CM). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TWO DOMINANT VORTEX CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVESTS 93W AND 94W) WILL STEADILY ORBIT ONE
ANOTHER AND MERGE DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY (ABOUT 250 NM).
DURING THIS CONSOLIDATION PHASE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
GAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE (WARM-CORE) CHARACTERISTICS WITH IMPROVED
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS LESS THAN 100NM.
NUMERICAL MODELS FURTHER AGREE ON A SLOW, GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHICH STORM
WILL GAIN THE DOMINANT CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 131.9E.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Well now

24W.INVEST