ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 92, 2021100706, , BEST, 0, 310N, 793W, 20, 1016, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 044,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Sciencerocks]

[zzh]

[syfr]

Certainly is pumping humidity into EC NC today.

[HurricaneEnzo]

If they named Odette this should at least have a decent chance of being a TD or something. Looks as good or maybe slightly better than Ode with a small area of 30kts winds. Needs to persist longer though that will be the key.

[MarioProtVI]

Visible imagery suggests a far different picture then ASCAT. Looks extremely broad and ill-defined with no clear center. Not sold at all on this developing.

[Sciencerocks]

[OuterBanker]

This thing has been meandering for what seems like forever. A naked swirl where upper level winds have decimated its chances. There could be a brief period between the shear zones in which something could spin something up. All models are showing heavy rains and near tropical storm winds on the OBX tomorrow. Whatever happens it will be something of a hybrid and will probably not get named. It would be nice to end the name list this weekend.

[abajan]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located a couple of hundred miles east of the coast
of South Carolina is gradually becoming better defined. Although
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions could briefly become
marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical
characteristics by Saturday night and early Sunday. By early next
week, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary,
which should end the opportunity for any subtropical or tropical
formation. The low is forecast to meander offshore the Carolinas
today, and then slowly move back toward the west-northwest and
northwest on Saturday, bringing the system closer to the coast of
North Carolina. Interests along the coast of North and South
Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty
winds will affect eastern portions of the Carolinas through the
weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

I definitely has a short window until 0z Monday to do something.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/8E1tjIm1hcM[/youtube]

[Ubuntwo]

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located about 200
miles southeast of Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina,
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could briefly
become marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical
characteristics through early Sunday. However, by late Sunday and
Monday, environmental conditions should become unfavorable for any
further development. The low is forecast to move slowly
northwestward during the next day or so, and approach the North
Carolina coast tonight and early Sunday. Therefore, interests along
the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this
system.

Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy
rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions
of North Carolina during the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[xironman]

The possibility of sub-tropical development seems to be improving

[Ubuntwo]

The GFS has been insisting on a convective burst tonight working its way to surface and driving pressure falls -> TCG. The 12z run doubles down and brings this down to 996. Might be overdoing it but the mesoscale models have a similar progression.


Not long after, upper level winds shear the cloud tops away leading to weakening and multiple vorts. Would be another "shortie"

[xironman]

@BigJoeBastardi
How is this non tropical? Its over 83 degree water and has been tracked out of the tropics for 7 days for goodness sakes, anyone want to bet the 1000-500 thk is not warmed at the center vs surroundings give pressure falls.
{…}
It makes no sense. If its well defined it means the pressures at the center alone given the upper pattern with the trough away from it has to make it warmer at the center. Why is that even a mention? You want to name ANA and Bob and not this? over colder water earlier?

It is mostly baroclinic forcing and tropical on the side. Hence a sub-tropical system at best. I am not sure what he is angry about other than the larger issues and the position in which he takes that are clearly mistaken. Sad to see. Looks like mainly a northeaster to me, with a twist of tropical

[chaser1]

Any truth to the rumor that Joe was spotted in Vegas betting the "over" on exhausting this year's standard name list? J/K of course Perhaps Joe's ire stems from some deep-seeded belief that NHC forecasters now receive "commission" for naming tropical storms? Hey, there are times when I shake my head thinking ".... whelp, that should never have been named" LOL! Of course the realty is that NHC (and Joe) ARE professionals and simply differ on which set of facts need be considered (or dismissed) as they apply to T.D. or T.S. classification.

The only takeaway from Bastardi's rant that I could agree with, is "You wanted to name Ana & Bob...." ? (but THAT Chupacabra or horse has been long beaten dead already).

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

Recon has the winds, and the things seem to be consolidating due south of Hatteras. It probably should be an STS