ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[zzh]

AL, 93, 2021101012, , BEST, 0, 106N, 500W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 046, SPAWNINVEST, al712021 to al932021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk

[Iceresistance]

That was unexpected

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wut. It doesnt have an area of formation. If I had to guess though it is probably that blob in the middle of the tropic Atlantic.

[Stormybajan]

This wave is looking good on visible currently. However windshear seems to be screaming ahead of it so it shouldnt become much, atleast east of us in the islands. However I am hoping for 93L to give us a bit more rain than we've had over the weekend

[InfernoFlameCat]

It looks amazing. Death by 50knots though is pretty painful.

[MarioProtVI]

SHIPS only has shear at 10-15 kt before peaking at 25 kt then dropping to ~15 kt later in the period. RH is fairly good so the only problem will be shear. Hopefully it can fight the shear off and maybe become a brief hurricane even.

[InfernoFlameCat]

SHIPS only has shear at 10-15 kt before peaking at 25 kt then dropping to ~15 kt later in the period. RH is fairly good so the only problem will be shear. Hopefully it can fight the shear off and maybe become a brief hurricane even.

If it does that would not be good. Because it would become dominant over its environment and then be in a bathtub of 31C temps and some of the highest OHC in the world.

[AutoPenalti]

lol that was quick.

[aspen]

This looks to be the precursor to the “Omar-like” (although not Omar-like but I kept calling it that) storm the GFS had for a few days then dropped.

[Stormybajan]

20-30% Can 93L surprise us?

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous
tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development
of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the
central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early
Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, the system will produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[abajan]

20-30% Can 93L surprise us?

I wonder if 1780 was a La Niña year too.

[Teban54]

20-30% Can 93L surprise us?

I wonder if 1780 was a La Niña year too.

Holy crap...

The system ultimately strengthened and expanded as it tracked slowly westward; affecting Barbados late on October 9. Late on October 10, the worst of the hurricane passed over the island, with at least one estimate of winds as high as 200 mph (320 km/h) during landfall, which is higher than any other 1-minute sustained wind speed in recorded Atlantic basin history.

[ouragans]

Invest 93L
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 10, 2021:

Location: 10.7°N 50.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 40 nm

[chaser1]

This vigorous disturbance is clearly spinning at some level. Development odds look a tad closer to 60-70% to me. "Shocker", and not a model saw this little flower bloom lol. Whether this will or will not fend off the shear remains to be seen but what is evident to me, is that the season is NOT over or likely to remain quiet for that much longer. More party favors coming.

[wxman57]

Every single scatterometer has missed it today. The circulation is probably in the mid-levels. Heading for increasing shear if it tracks any farther to the north.

[chaser1]

Every single scatterometer has missed it today. The circulation is probably in the mid-levels. Heading for increasing shear if it tracks any farther to the north.

Mid-level only? I can't refute that possibility or that it clearly appears to be approaching shear. It's small size and apparant vigorous vorticity suggests to me that may well be near the surface. I agree that it's small size would generally leave it to be that much more defenseless against increasing shear though. Question is, would such a vigorous mid level low necessarily unwind within 2-4 days given unfavorable upper level conditions? I would think "inhibit" might well apply to further near-term development - but for how long?

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Do you guys think this can develop and surprise Barbados

[Teban54]

Two big fat hot towers recently popped up, but they're way north of the MLC. Looks like the MLC is already being pulled north though, let's see if it manages to consolidate north and form an LLC there.