EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:02 pm

This isn’t looking primed for RI much anymore because of higher shear than expected. Typical of a -ENSO EPac.
I also don’t think Pamela will intensify until landfall like in the NHC forecast due to the potential for the jet streak to start shearing it instead of ventilating it after the turn to the NE. Pamela’s window of opportunity between building an inner core and the increase in shear might not be enough time.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:16 pm

My “Pamela won’t intensify into landfall” comments might age very poorly, given how insistent the GFS, HMON, and HWRF are on such a solution. The 18z GFS has a 942mb landfall on Wednesday night.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:57 pm

18z HWRF is the weakest run yet. It looks like an eyewall is unable to fully wrap around, possibly due to shear from the SW. It’s probably too early to judge what Pamela’s peak could be, but if the storm does not improve over the next 24 hours, the NHC’s forecast could be spot-on.

I did doubt Ida’s RI though, and look how well that aged.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:06 pm

aspen wrote:18z HWRF is the weakest run yet. It looks like an eyewall is unable to fully wrap around, possibly due to shear from the SW. It’s probably too early to judge what Pamela’s peak could be, but if the storm does not improve over the next 24 hours, the NHC’s forecast could be spot-on.

I did doubt Ida’s RI though, and look how well that aged.


Image

Might be HWRF overdoing mid level shear again but I’m not super confident.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:12 pm

A new CDO has developed closer to the center and outflow is expanding to the northeast. Slow intensification is underway.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:13 pm

TXPZ29 KNES 102358
TCSENP

A. 16E (PAMELA)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 15.6N

D. 106.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING AROUND A LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET
IS 2.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT SINCE CLOUD FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT AND A
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:21 pm

Yellow Evan. What do they mean about pattern adjustment?
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yellow Evan. What do they mean about pattern adjustment?


No idea. DT was 2.5 from using the Dvorak curved band pattern each of the last two cycles.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:49 pm

Image

GFS showing mid-level shear of around 25-30 knots yet it intensifies Pamela rapidly anyway with minimal vortex tilt. Shades of Delta here, which I’ll remind you still got to 120 knots.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:54 pm

If all that mid-level shear verifies — which it probably will given the ENSO state — Pamela will probably end up as an ugly low-end major through landfall. The worst of both worlds, essentially; a storm that’s not pleasant to look at and one that brings very significant impacts to land.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:00 pm

EP, 16, 2021101100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1064W, 45, 1002, TS
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:01 pm

Image

No inner core yet.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:08 pm

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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:32 pm

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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:42 pm

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Satellite images indicate that Pamela is continuing to strengthen.
The low-level center is on the northern edge of a growing area of
deep convection, although there is still a fair bit of northerly
shear as indicated by the V-shape to the cloud tops on infrared
satellite imagery. Intensity estimates are rising, so the wind
speed is set to 45 kt, closest to the latest TAFB classification.

The current moderate shear is forecast to relax some tomorrow as
Pamela moves closer to the center of an upper-level high. Combined
with the very warm waters in the path of the storm, this should set
the stage for continued strengthening. Rapid intensification is
also possible in a day or so when Pamela is in a shear minimum and
likely has a better-developed inner core. The intensity forecast is
raised from the previous one, although it remains below the
corrected- consensus guidance. This could be a conservative
forecast if the favorable environment shown by the GFS model
materializes.

Pamela has slowed some tonight, now 295/10 kt. The steering
pattern seems well defined for the next day or so with a ridge
controlling the storm's motion in a west-northwest to northwest
direction. A broad mid-latitude trough causes the ridge to erode in
a couple of days, forcing the cyclone to turn northward and
northeastward by late Tuesday and move faster. The most significant
guidance change is that more of the models are showing a quicker
progression toward the coast of west-central Mexico. This makes
meteorological sense as well, with a more powerful hurricane likely
feeling the stronger upper-level southwesterly winds. The new
forecast is adjusted toward the northeast beyond 24 hours, near or
just behind the model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could
bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous
winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should
monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place.

2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or
early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to
the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be
required for portions of this area early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby grapealcoholic » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:32 pm

Raw T up to 3.5
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:47 pm

Image

Classic T3.5 based on shear pattern. Convective burst that was rotating upshear seems to have stalled, however.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:27 am

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:30 am

Image

0z GFS peaks this right at landfall and pushes landfall up a bit.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:13 am

TXPZ29 KNES 110556
TCSENP

A. 16E (PAMELA)

B. 11/0530Z

C. 16.0N

D. 107.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING AROUND A LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS
3.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS ALSO EQUAL TO 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE
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