Texas Fall 2021
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
First watch went up a couple of hours ago, expect to see the rest of Oklahoma and Texas fill in over the evening.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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- bubba hotep
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- Posts: 5610
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
- bubba hotep
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- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2021
70 - 80+ mph wind gust being reported with this line moving through DFW..
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
2.3 Inches from the Rain Gauge, but it's likely between 2.5 & 2.75 inches since most of the rain was windblown
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Typical squall line, nothing too crazy IMBY. But, nice to see rain and thunder again. Edit to add: looked a models and still looking good for heavy rain this week in DFW. Just hope Pamela doesn't decide to go a different route. We are in dire need up here.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Now eyes on the EPAC. Pamela's remnants will track Northeastward across Texas. 3-5 inches in its path easily.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Got 1.9" at the airport here. A nice over achiever
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Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
rwfromkansas wrote:Typical squall line, nothing too crazy IMBY. But, nice to see rain and thunder again. Edit to add: looked a models and still looking good for heavy rain this week in DFW. Just hope Pamela doesn't decide to go a different route. We are in dire need up here.
It was a nice line of storms - doesn't appear to have caused much in the way of damage, didn't spit an outflow and collapse as it moved into DFW, provided a really nice long light show as it approached, widespread rain, cleared out quickly and left us a really nice day today.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Ntxw wrote:Now eyes on the EPAC. Pamela's remnants will track Northeastward across Texas. 3-5 inches in its path easily.
Yep, enjoy the nice weather today b/c it's going to be a wet week. Looks like Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the main event.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
Its not just you. I agree with you.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Looking out into the longer range, ensembles are in pretty good agreement that ridging will be focused up north over Canada with a West Coast trough. That should deliver seasonable temps for most of Texas with the periodic chances of rain as individual disturbances kick out from the mean trough and slide under the ridge.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
Its not just you. I agree with you.
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
Its not just you. I agree with you.
Severe weather, in terms of tornado outbreaks, imo can be even tougher to forecast than cold blast and winter storms. In reality only a small percentage of folks are ever really directly effected even in the largest outbreaks. We have more tools available now to a broader public so model output can sometimes produce WOW factors for certain parameters but they are still only models and it takes a lot to get the right ingredients together at the right time.
SPC and NWS did a good job and even weather models for this round. There was a large region that went severe, noted with isolated tornadoes embedded within these lines. The area put under moderate in Oklahoma yielded a few good storms that did produce tornadoes. It's all about interpretation and context. Just because a model has an amazing graph or chart showing the atmosphere with explosive potential, but it's just that, potential. You need good timing and the right kind of storms to produce.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Iceresistance wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
Its not just you. I agree with you.
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
It's panned out many times since 2013
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Boomer Sooner!
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
It's panned out many times since 2013
But 2013 was a very notable one, & of course I forget 2019
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
It's panned out many times since 2013
Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Cpv17 wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
It's panned out many times since 2013
Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.
It has probably cycled downward, it's going to ramp back up again, but when is the question
Winter became generally milder after 2010-2011 Winter, but after that, I knew that Winter was going to wake up soon, but when was the question. The 2020-2021 Winter showed that pattern.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Iceresistance wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
Its not just you. I agree with you.
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
Huh?
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