EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

[Teban54]

So now even Stewart no longer expects Pamela to become a major before landfall, which shouldn't be surprising.

There's still a chance Pamela pulls a Michael and intensify despite shear, or pulls a Grace or Ida and RI at the last minute after people have given up. But not sure if anyone is willing to bet money on either outcome.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1447955479876063239

[aspen]

I don’t think recon will find a hurricane. It seems that the LLC is becoming exposed again, and that microwave pass Teban posted is awful.

This has got to be one of the worst model busts ever — consensus for a major and a very favorable environment, but mid-level shear becomes a far bigger factor than most models show, and the system will likely not even get close to MH status now. Pamela truly is the anti-Patricia, falling far below expectations instead of far above expectations while having an almost identical track, timing, and SSTAs to work with, but occurring in opposite ENSO states.

[Ubuntwo]

So now even Stewart no longer expects Pamela to become a major before landfall, which shouldn't be surprising.

There's still a chance Pamela pulls a Michael and intensify despite shear, or pulls a Grace or Ida and RI at the last minute after people have given up. But not sure if anyone is willing to bet money on either outcome.

Difference being Michael’s shear was in its direction of motion, while it is directly perpendicular to Pamela’s motion (and in the mid levels). Grace and Ida were both in excellent environments for RI. Intensification with Pamela should be more steady and diurnal pulsed.

[Yellow Evan]

$1000 question: Why is or isn’t La Niña to blame for non-uniform flow inducing below outflow shear? In theory, that’s a process that isn’t controlled by ENSO yet there are several comments in this thread blaming it for this being an all time bust, perhaps the biggest in my 16 years tracking this basin.

[NDG]

Not very healthy due to the mid level westerly shear, LLC is well west of the deep convection. I doubt it will get stronger than a strong Cat 1 prior to landfall.

[NDG]

Oh an October hurricane in the Pacific in -ENSO year, how could that be?

Had this not been a -ENSO Pamela would had been a MH by now. IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

This is a mid to high end tropical storm per Recon though NHC will keep this as a hurricane for continuity purposes.

[ElectricStorm]

I haven't really been following this very closely due to the severe weather threats but I will say this looks like a bust to me. Not expecting much from this. Which is great news for Mexico

[NDG]

This is a mid to high end tropical storm per Recon though NHC will keep this as a hurricane for continuity purposes.

I am giving it the benefit of doubt that the Cat 1 winds might be in the NE quadrant, we shall see, but I am probably been too optimistic with it.

[NDG]

Extrap pressure by recon is higher than estimated.

170030 2023N 10921W 6971 03074 9884 +163 +093 209004 007 018 002 00

[NDG]

Recon confirms that the LLC is well NW of the deep convection.

[NDG]

Dropsonde only 991mb, I doubt it is a Cat 1.

[cycloneye]

Big bust for the models but maybe ECMWF had it right at the start with a weaker solution.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Climatology really does a number on storms.

[Teban54]

Big bust for the models but maybe ECMWF had it right at the start with a weaker solution.

More likely to be just resolution issues and Euro's low bias with intensity, rather than it being right about a weak Pamela. A broken bell is right twice a day.

Pamela's current intensity would probably be reflected as 1000 mb on a low-res Euro run.

[Yellow Evan]

Climatology really does a number on storms.

This makes no sense whatsoever as the present day weather and climatology itself are not connected.

[Yellow Evan]

Big bust for the models but maybe ECMWF had it right at the start with a weaker solution.

I’d be more impressed if the ECMWF got the mid level shear being an issue right. Otherwise, broken clock moment.

[zzh]

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 109.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

The NHC keeps it at 70kt while recon only supports 50-55kt

[Yellow Evan]

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 109.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

The NHC keeps it at 70kt while recon only supports 50-55kt

Do you think dropping to 55 and then potentially going up to 65 is good messaging for a storm near land?