EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

[aspen]

Clearly, mid-level shear is something the models still struggle with and need improvement on. This is the worst mid level shear-related bust I can recall. Delta doesn’t count, because it was already a Cat 5 undergoing ERI before the unexpected shear hit, and it was able to recover later on. The mid level shear Pamela is struggling with has been far more persistent.

[Teban54]

Welp, FL winds in the NE quad are not even close to hurricane-force FL, much less hurricane-force surface winds. Shouldn't be surprising that the SE quad is the strongest given Pamela's current structure.

[cycloneye]

Down to 60 kts.

EP, 16, 2021101218, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1093W, 60, 989, TS

[Teban54]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Patricia_2015-10-23_1730Z.jpg/800px-Patricia_2015-10-23_1730Z.jpg
She is back

If Pamela does bomb out into a pinhole Cat 5 like Patricia, hopefully it’s at the perfect time for recon and increasing shear weakens Pamela before landfall.

So much for the perfectly timed recon

[aspen]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Patricia_2015-10-23_1730Z.jpg/800px-Patricia_2015-10-23_1730Z.jpg
She is back

If Pamela does bomb out into a pinhole Cat 5 like Patricia, hopefully it’s at the perfect time for recon and increasing shear weakens Pamela before landfall.

So much for the perfectly timed recon

At least there wasn’t a crazy peak that recon would miss lol

[Yellow Evan]

Shades of 2011-15 Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1447988564365484032

[SconnieCane]

Clearly, mid-level shear is something the models still struggle with and need improvement on. This is the worst mid level shear-related bust I can recall. Delta doesn’t count, because it was already a Cat 5 undergoing ERI before the unexpected shear hit, and it was able to recover later on. The mid level shear Pamela is struggling with has been far more persistent.

Delta never made it to Cat. 5. 125kt operational peak, revised down to 120kt in TCR.

[aspen]

Clearly, mid-level shear is something the models still struggle with and need improvement on. This is the worst mid level shear-related bust I can recall. Delta doesn’t count, because it was already a Cat 5 undergoing ERI before the unexpected shear hit, and it was able to recover later on. The mid level shear Pamela is struggling with has been far more persistent.

Delta never made it to Cat. 5. 125kt operational peak, revised down to 120kt in TCR.

Typo, sorry. But the point still stands because Delta was already a major that exceeded expectations before the mid-level shear came.

[KWT]

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 109.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

The NHC keeps it at 70kt while recon only supports 50-55kt

Do you think dropping to 55 and then potentially going up to 65 is good messaging for a storm near land?

No but keeping it at 70kts when its clearly not at all close to that sort of level is a poor call clearly.

The GFS has so far severely busted on this one. With that being said its not impossible for it to still undergo rapid strengthening into landfall if the shear does ease up at any point.

[Kingarabian]

Pamela is the cherry on top of the models struggles this year for this general area box. They never were able to diagnose the shear in this area correctly.

[Ubuntwo]

From four days ago:

the Euro never develops a proper anticyclone over 91E leading to a sheared, struggling system (maybe a function of developing a different lobe of the monsoon trough?) Hmm... guess we'll see in a couple days.

Looks like the Euro was right about one thing

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

I’m sorry Stewart, but this isn’t gonna intensify much anymore. There’s literally no core with less than 24 hours before landfall. Dmax with the 31C SSTs could help Pamela out, but I doubt it’ll do much.

[Chris90]

I feel like the tropics just wanted to troll Josh Morgerman. He refers to tropical storms as slop quite frequently and says they're not worth chasing, so the tropics decided to fake him out and get their revenge.

Since Pam is headed for land I'm glad she's been riding the struggle bus so far. Hopefully she continues and it's not a big impact.

I'm hoping the EPAC serves it up next year. I'm ready for big long trackers that rack up ACE and head out to sea.

[grapealcoholic]

I’m sorry Stewart, but this isn’t gonna intensify much anymore. There’s literally no core with less than 24 hours before landfall. Dmax with the 31C SSTs could help Pamela out, but I doubt it’ll do much.

Eh, I disagree. 31C in October is basically in the upper 99th percentile of thermodynamic favorability (aside from like WPAC in November). Shear will fight it but thermodynamics should win out here -- just unsure how quickly it could deepen.

[ncforecaster89]

I fully anticipate some decent intensification once it makes a further eastward turn towards a more direct NE heading. This will give Pamela the benefit of a much more favorable trough interaction whereby the shear should diminish a bit, as well increasing upper-level divergence. That, combined with anomalous SSTs, should allow Pamela to get to the 75-85 kt range.

[aspen]

She's trying


Mexico dodged a massive bullet this time. Pamela will still be an unpleasant experience and a dangerous storm, but definitely far better than a 105-120kt major at landfall like the NHC was forecasting and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON showed.

[Yellow Evan]

From four days ago:

the Euro never develops a proper anticyclone over 91E leading to a sheared, struggling system (maybe a function of developing a different lobe of the monsoon trough?) Hmm... guess we'll see in a couple days.

Looks like the Euro was right about one thing

The shear is coming from mid-levels though. A proper ULAC did become established so ECMWF wasn’t exactly right.

[cycloneye]

EP, 16, 2021101300, , BEST, 0, 215N, 1089W, 60, 989, TS