This poll is to concern 16E—future Pamela—in the EPAC. By all indications it looks to become a formidable system—possibly a historic one, given -ENSO.
Moderators, please turn this thread into a poll with the following options:
* < 96 kt (sub-major)
* 96 – 112 kt
* 113 – 125 kt
* 126 – 138 kt
* 139 – 151 kt
* ≥ 152 kt
My preliminary “guess”: 139 – 151 kt (to be precise, 140 kt).
How strong will 16E/Pamela get?
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How strong will 16E/Pamela get?
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- cycloneye
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?
Made the poll for the members to vote and it will close on Sunday at 1:03 PM EDT.
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?
Probably rather early to guess, but I’ll conservatively go with 115-120 kt. Yellow Evan brought up Genevieve ‘20 due to also having an extremely favorable forecast environment, but it never reached its full potential and capped out as a low-end Cat 4. Perhaps Pamela could be the same due to this also being a -ENSO year.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?
I am going to go with a 125 or 130 mph peak.
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?
Based on current organisational and modelled trends, UL divergence could remain favourable through landfall, heightening the potential ceiling.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: How strong will 16E/Pamela get?
Based on current organizational looks and trends in dry air and shear, I have a decent feeling that the previous models and thoughts that a major, powerful hurricane will hit Mexico are going to not verify. I myself fall into this category.
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- galaxy401
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Re: How strong will 16E/Pamela get?
Looks like the -ENSO pattern prevails as Pamela is probably going to bust nearly all the forecasts. Looks like only 2 people were correct here.
I was not on board that Pamela was going to be a historic storm at all. The background state just isn't very favorable. Still, I thought Pamela was going to be a little stronger then right now...
I was not on board that Pamela was going to be a historic storm at all. The background state just isn't very favorable. Still, I thought Pamela was going to be a little stronger then right now...
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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