EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

[Category5Kaiju]

All I have to say after watching the events unfold is, poor Pamela.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1448264290411024387

[aspen]

The magnitude in which Pamela under-performed is incredible. With a peak of just 70kt/985mb (and even that might be a little high), Pamela fell 35kt under the highest peak given to it by the NHC (105kt), 45-50kt under the maximum winds modeled or suggested by the HWRF and GFS (120-125kt), and was 30-50mb weaker than both models’ forecast pressure. Remember, the GFS was consistently showing 940s and 930s for days.

No other storm this year gets anywhere close to Pamela’s under-performance. Larry fell 15kt below the highest forecast peak the NHC gave it, but the HWRF was spot-on with pressure and winds. Victor fell 15-30kt below the NHC peak and HWRF estimates, but it was only a single category difference instead of two or three. Guillermo and Kevin also busted badly in the same region, but I don’t think the NHC was as aggressive with them as they were with Pamela.

The GFS is pretty bad for intensity, you know this, right? The GFS has been spinning up phantom EPAC storm all year, right? EPAC storms are always harder to forecast, perhaps due to lack of good data, so I'm not shocked at all. EPAC can be pretty exciting because intensity predictions are so historically poor.

I know. It’s still quite remarkable as to how badly the GFS performed with Pamela; I remember it showing <5kt of shear and RH>90% just a few days out, when Pamela was a forming TD. This is the worst case of GFS EPac over-estimation I can recall off the top of my head, but I’m pretty sure there are some more examples from other -ENSO years. Does anyone remember what the GFS was showing for storms like Genevieve, Enrique, Guillermo, and Kevin within 120hr?

[zeehag]

poor pamela you guys say..hahaha at 0700 the water was shut off. lights on and off all night with popping w ires. i am in colonia 20 nov, mazatlan, mexico, one of the older neighborhoods in mazatlan. it has been wickedly windy and wonderfully rainy all night with a time out from rain for about 1.5 hours during which time lots of popping wires..some from 2 doors down from me.. lightning and thunder, almost as much as patricia gave us when she hit barra/colimilla in 2014. could feel and hear the intensification of this storm. the cats were fully insane. not happy lil campers. even bubba, my patricia veteran, was unhappy and restless. chico has been a nightmare.
we are looking forward to resumption of normal living here, whenever that maybe. after nora, no water in this colonia for 10 days..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1448298089249390605

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to
Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane.
To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the
Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There
was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who
measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to
20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall
location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears
reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around
Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since
the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is
likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to have decreased to 55 kt.

The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this
morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further
acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains
embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough
over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over
the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast
period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model
consensus solutions.

Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over
the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are
expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be
advected northeastward into the south-central United States.
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later
today and on Thursday for these areas.


Key Messages:

1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this
morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia
Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still
expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the
Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit
through today. This will pose a threat of significant and
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today
into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Pamela Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

As Pamela has moved further inland over the high, rugged terrain of
west-central Mexico, its satellite structure has deteriorated
markedly. Inland surface observations also suggest that the
system's low-level circulation is becoming ill-defined. Following
the typical rapid rate of decay of tropical cyclones over this
portion of Mexico, the maximum sustained winds are quickly
lowering, now estimated at 30 kt this advisory, making
Pamela a tropical depression.

The estimated motion continues to accelerate, now at 045/24 kt.
This motion and heading should continue until the system
dissipates over the higher terrain of Central Mexico this
evening. A 12 hour point in this forecast has been provided for
continuity purposes though the surface center will likely dissipate
beforehand. This track also represents where the remnant mid-level
vorticity maximum of Pamela will continue to propagate
northeastward. This feature is also associated with a deep-layer
moisture plume that is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall and
flooding impacts over the south-central United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding associated with
Pamela will be diminishing through tonight over Mexico.

2. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through
Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 26.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 28.6N 100.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin

[wxman57]

Pamela is gone. No more LLC. Can't pass across such high mountains as it did this morning and survive. A very generous designation of a depression by the NHC. Some rain for TX tomorrow. Not much here in Houston, it appears.

[aspen]

Nina-enhanced mid level shear came to Mexico’s rescue here. Yeah the heavy rains are dangerous no matter the intensity, but it’s better than Cat 3/4 winds on top of it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

This is bringing in Showers & Storms to Texas & Oklahoma

[Teban54]

Anyone wanna bet if this is going down in the record books or not?

Post #2 of the thread.

NOPE.

Well, maybe record books for the greatest underachievers.

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone wanna bet if this is going down in the record books or not?

Post #2 of the thread.

NOPE.

Well, maybe record books for the greatest underachievers.

Outside of maybe Ernesto, I don’t think I remember a bigger bust than this globally tbh.

[Yellow Evan]

The magnitude in which Pamela under-performed is incredible. With a peak of just 70kt/985mb (and even that might be a little high), Pamela fell 35kt under the highest peak given to it by the NHC (105kt), 45-50kt under the maximum winds modeled or suggested by the HWRF and GFS (120-125kt), and was 30-50mb weaker than both models’ forecast pressure. Remember, the GFS was consistently showing 940s and 930s for days.

No other storm this year gets anywhere close to Pamela’s under-performance. Larry fell 15kt below the highest forecast peak the NHC gave it, but the HWRF was spot-on with pressure and winds. Victor fell 15-30kt below the NHC peak and HWRF estimates, but it was only a single category difference instead of two or three. Guillermo and Kevin also busted badly in the same region, but I don’t think the NHC was as aggressive with them as they were with Pamela.

The GFS is pretty bad for intensity, you know this, right? The GFS has been spinning up phantom EPAC storm all year, right? EPAC storms are always harder to forecast, perhaps due to lack of good data, so I'm not shocked at all. EPAC can be pretty exciting because intensity predictions are so historically poor.

I know. It’s still quite remarkable as to how badly the GFS performed with Pamela; I remember it showing <5kt of shear and RH>90% just a few days out, when Pamela was a forming TD. This is the worst case of GFS EPac over-estimation I can recall off the top of my head, but I’m pretty sure there are some more examples from other -ENSO years. Does anyone remember what the GFS was showing for storms like Genevieve, Enrique, Guillermo, and Kevin within 120hr?

Genevieve was at least a Category 4 so it’s not really a bust. Enrique/Kevin never had consistent GFS aggressiveness anywhere near this extent (GFS had this dropping sub-970 for 36 straight runs), and not too long before genesis occurred, it was clear Guillermo’s large size would be an issue.

[hurricanetrack]

Here is neat time lapse from our GoPro that we set up in Mazatlan late last night. The lightning was insane - almost constant at one point. It was due to the dry air mixing in and creating instability and lots of ice crystals for those discharges to build up on I guess. The wind never got too strong - solid strong tropical storm here, not sure if I could say hurricane conditions but then again, I was not out and about. My lowest pressure reading in Mazatlan was 993.21 MB at practically sea level.

Anyhow - enjoy the time lapse!

[youtube]https://youtu.be/J69NCjzTGiQ[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Pamela Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Pamela has
dissipated over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico.
Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Pamela.

Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated
with Pamela's remnants will continue to spread over the
south-central United States. As a result, heavy rainfall is
expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma
through Thursday. These rains may contribute to considerable flash
and urban flooding impacts. For additional information on the heavy
rainfall and flood potential, please consult products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 27.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF PAMELA
12H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[aspen]

Pamela will go down in history for being the polar opposite of Patricia and one of the biggest model busts of all time.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/IBW5sIA.png
Pamela will go down in history for being the polar opposite of Patricia and one of the biggest model busts of all time.

This is more like "Model Expectations vs Reality"

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1448775165815541763