2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

These two possible Caribbean systems remind me of Gamma and Delta: consecutive WCar systems with one forming very close to the Yucatán before making landfall, then a second forming in the central Caribbean from an AEW and moving into the WCar after the first system.

[gatorcane]

18z Gefs did increase though…

Saved loop, getting more active:

[SFLcane]

Something is potentially coming to SFL whether it’s some rain or a Cat 1 hurricane which seems to be the ceiling here who knows.

Again gfs is solo here

[SFLcane]

Could form in 5-6 days “ IF “ the Gefs and gfs are right which again I remain very skeptical.

[aspen]

If both systems remains on the ensembles or operational models or both by this time Friday, and the time frames haven’t shifted to later in the month, it’ll probably be safe to say that at least one of them isn’t a phantom. Or maybe both do attempt to develop, but the first one remains too close to land and fails to become a TC.

[lhpfish]

Getting married in islamorada next Saturday

Reschedule from 2020

[skyline385]

Something is potentially coming to SFL whether it’s some rain or a Cat 1 hurricane which seems to be the ceiling here who knows.

Again gfs is solo here

https://i.postimg.cc/hP4YdbGs/5-F38-FE3 ... F0-CAB.jpg

Doesn't GFS still have the ghost CAG system issue? Also there still aren't many ensemble members showing it and i think a majority seem to dodge SFL

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS still has a moderate signal for a potential W Caribbean genesis mid to late next week that then heads NE.

[aspen]

00z GFS has even more EPac bias, with two TCs consolidating on the Pacific side of Central America. This solution can be tossed out.

The precursor wave to the second Caribbean system is quite strong on the 06z GFS, but it gets very close to South America and the GFS finds a way to rip it apart after 240hrs. The time frame remains constant (Oct22-23), however.

[SFLcane]

Inconsistency with the gfs continues quite honestly I am not onboard with anything developing yet let alone it’s the only model with this idea.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... Still showing some activity, one Major skimming SFL...

[Category5Kaiju]

Subject to change of course, but some of the long range GEFS ensemble members with that very powerful WCAR system zeroing in on Cuba and originating in the MDR kind of remind me of the 1932 Cuba Hurricane, especially with regards to track and time of year.

[SFLcane]

GFS definitely backing off any development. Looks like your typical Caribbean convective bias.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS definitely backing off any development. Looks like your typical Caribbean convective bias.

Yeah well it’s also spinning a detectable vorticity right off the Central American coast on the EPAC side, so I’m pretty sure there’s some convective EPAC bias going on here though. GFS otherwise has been consistent with the general idea that a gyre or broad area of spin would set up around next week, I personally do not think that has changed

[CourierPR]

Here is a very recent tweet by Meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

"the 3 month period we are is inthe most active 90 days of the year. to see a complete shutdown in mid October is extreme, Pacifc basins well below ave this year I do not believe we are done in the atlantic. JMA VV and week 2 precip indicate carribean Fla/Bahamas place to watch"

[aspen]

The GFS continues to show the precursor wave next weekend, but still tries to shut down the Atlantic and develop at least one TC on the EPac side of Central America. Clearly it’s suffering from severe bias. We’re now officially in a La Niña atmosphere so any EPac development is next to impossible.

[Ubuntwo]

The GFS continues to show the precursor wave next weekend, but still tries to shut down the Atlantic and develop at least one TC on the EPac side ofCentral America. Clearly it’s suffering from severe bias. We’re now officially in a La Niña atmosphere so any EPac development is next to impossible.

Not really sure it can be tied to a bias. The past few runs have had stronger ridging driving the wave into Central America and the Pacific. Even without development Pacific side, that would limit Atlantic development. The euro has a similar progression.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS continues to show the precursor wave next weekend, but still tries to shut down the Atlantic and develop at least one TC on the EPac side ofCentral America. Clearly it’s suffering from severe bias. We’re now officially in a La Niña atmosphere so any EPac development is next to impossible.

Not really sure it can be tied to a bias. The past few runs have had stronger ridging driving the wave into Central America and the Pacific. Even without development Pacific side, that would limit Atlantic development. The euro has a similar progression.

But that is precisely the issue though, the GFS has a robustly strengthening EPAC system next week or so merely miles off the west coast of Guatemala and Mexico. I personally find this to not be realistic

[aspen]

The wave won’t reach the Lesser Antilles for another 8-10 days. We’ve got plenty of time to watch this. It could get shoved too far south, or the models could trend to weaker ridging and a developing storm. If we do get a TC from this wave, it might not be until the last week of the month.

[Ubuntwo]

But that is precisely the issue though, the GFS has a robustly strengthening EPAC system next week or so merely miles off the west coast of Guatemala and Mexico. I personally find this to not be realistic

From the same wave earlier runs developed in the Western Caribbean. The wave only ends up in the Pacific stronger ridging is modeled. Hard for a wave outside tbe basin to develop Atlantic side So this is an issue of steering and synoptics.