2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AlphaToOmega]

The 12Z EPS is pretty much a snooze-fest, which is a good thing of course.

How far out in time does the EPS go?

240 hours

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS is pretty much a snooze-fest, which is a good thing of course.

How far out in time does the EPS go?

240 hours

Nope, EPS goes out to near 360 hrs but only 240 on some of the free sites.

[aspen]

Perhaps the strong front next week could spin up something over the central Atlantic. The GFS has been trying to spin something out of it all day.

[Category5Kaiju]

GEFS ensembles show a fungal spore-like eruption of strong members over the vicinity of Puerto Rico in the first few days of November

[kevin]

The EPAC vs. NATL ensembles right now:

[Europa non è lontana]

Past two UKMet runs (00z, 12z) have shown possible development in the central/eastern Med about 108 hours out. It may be an artefact, but it could be something to watch in the coming days, if more runs show it and other models get on board.

[Category5Kaiju]

I will literally laugh if the most recent GFS run verifies and generates a flurry of NSs in the Atlantic by the month's end into November

[AlphaToOmega]

Someone must have flipped a switch at NCEP (still too early to make a definitive judgement: NOTHING is ever certain in weather)

[aspen]

Someone must have flipped a switch at NCEP (still too early to make a definitive judgement: NOTHING is ever certain in weather)
https://i.postimg.cc/GtMPDRJF/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-384.gif

I still think that front or cutoff low in the 180-240hr range has the best shot of producing something. Seems like deep tropics activity might be done for the year due to the abnormal placement of the monsoon trough, unless it moves out of the way.

[Ubuntwo]

Over 40% of 12z Euro ensemble members have development, almost exclusively beyond day 10. Mostly in the subtropics with a fair few members in the Caribbean.

[Category5Kaiju]

The AOI in the Atlantic is highlighted in the recent CPC Hazards Outlook, but the GEFS ensembles have been very consistent on a Caribbean system by the end of this month going into November. Interestingly there has been some very solid consistency in those ensemble members that this potential storm could become quite potent and take one of those weird late-season eastward moving tracks (kind of like Omar or Lenny). We'll see what happens.

[aspen]

Several more frontal spin-ups next week on the 18z GFS. Let’s see if future runs hone in on something specific.

[cycloneye]

What was that? Never seen it before about landfall in SA.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS giving us a Major Hurricane bobbing around the Caribbean days 8-16...

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, if that most recent GFS run holds any truth to it (meaning we get a powerful major early November WCAR storm), I am going to remember 2021 as the most troll season.

[Iceresistance]

Ok, if that most recent GFS run holds any truth to it (meaning we get a powerful major early November WCAR storm), I am going to remember 2021 as the most troll season.

Or as the one who defies the most logic.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/lVIrtP2.gif
06z GFS giving us a Major Hurricane bobbing around the Caribbean days 8-16...

Wow that is one of the weirdest Atlantic GFS run tracks I have ever seen. A major hurricane landfall in the ABC islands is practically unheard of.

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/lVIrtP2.gif
06z GFS giving us a Major Hurricane bobbing around the Caribbean days 8-16...

Just one run of course, but this would be a 'top 5 weirdest TC ever' candidate if it would verify.

[aspen]

06z GEFS ensembles are really lighting up in the eastern Caribbean in the 8-11 day range, and are also active in the eastern MDR around the same time.

[Category5Kaiju]

It would really be something if this season's November ended up more active NS-wise and quality-wise than October alone.