2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

What was that? Never seen it before about landfall in SA.

That’s just beyond ridiculous.

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GFS run shows Wanda and Adria forming by October 31, which (in a very very hypothetical event) would completely shatter the idea that this October would be storm-free.

[dexterlabio]

What was that? Never seen it before about landfall in SA.

That’s just beyond ridiculous.

I thought that track looked similar with Matthew's.

[skyline385]

Latest GFS run shows Wanda and Adria forming by October 31, which (in a very very hypothetical event) would completely shatter the idea that this October would be storm-free.

I mean it's the GFS 11 days out, maybe one of them happens but very unlikely of the GFS being true this far out for two potential systems especially when it's been flip flopping every run. Went from a major in the S Caribbean to a weak TS zooming off north in just one run. And note that even the ensembles have been flip flopping around, i can't even remember a recent run where the operational model showed some agreement with the ensembles...

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GFS run shows Wanda and Adria forming by October 31, which (in a very very hypothetical event) would completely shatter the idea that this October would be storm-free.

I mean it's the GFS 11 days out, maybe one of them happens but very unlikely of the GFS being true this far out for two potential systems especially when it's been flip flopping every run. Went from a major in the S Caribbean to a weak TS zooming off north in just one run. And note that even the ensembles have been flip flopping around, i can't even remember a recent run where the operational model showed some agreement with the ensembles...

Yeah it's window wipers effect. Honestly the GEFS ensembles imho have been the easiest to follow given they have been very consistent so far, and their general idea is that there's a chance we could see a potent Caribbean Sea storm form by the end of October or very early next month. As for track some have it taking a Omar/Lenny eastward track while others have it going due north toward Jamaica or even west into the WCAR, but I think especially with the favorable MJO coming in by then as well as CPC Hazards noting the Caribbean as a moderate risk zone of some TC formation two weeks from now, I think this potential disturbance *could* finally end the long inactivity in the Atlantic this past several weeks.

[MHC Tracking]

I'll wait until the precursor low forms for this disturbance, but if it does, I will become more interested in its future. 06z GFS sure was something you don't see every day

[Ubuntwo]

The incipient disturbance looks to be a tropical wave interacting with a trough. On the 6z run ridging built back in after the trough, trapping the system in the Caribbean. Most runs follow the trough out to sea, which ensembles have favored. A minority get trapped and deepen.

[Category5Kaiju]

The incipient disturbance looks to be a tropical wave interacting with a trough. On the 6z run ridging built back in after the trough, trapping the system in the Caribbean. Most runs follow the trough out to sea, which ensembles have favored. A minority get trapped and deepen.

Ah yes, no wonder why a decent number of the ensembles have this system going due east or northeast, the dynamics are similar to what we saw with Lenny and Omar

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

[Teban54]

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board

[skyline385]

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif

Nothing on the ensembles, probably just another ghost storm

[aspen]

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif

Way too early to predict this possible system’s intensity, but it would appear there’s the potential for a very complicated steering setup that could either send it OTS, or block it and force it to stay around the islands. As mentioned earlier in the thread, genesis appears to be spawned by a wave interacting with a front.

[SFLcane]

Who says we can’t get another Happy hour gfs run before season is lights out. If that happens I will get a tattoo of that run on my back.

Gfs your just spam.

[Ubuntwo]

Nothing on the ensembles, probably just another ghost storm

Not a 'ghost' because the wave is trackable. But as with the last modeled Caribbean system, this wave has to not dive into South America to actually have a chance. GFS has a trough lifting the wave northward and permitting development. I'm a little doubtful on this particular wave, because other models have stronger ridging burying it without a chance at development. The GFS does have a tendency to overdo troughing. I guess the wave has another shot if it emerges back offshore near Panama, but would probably be less amplified/weaker at that point. Just speculating there.

[Iceresistance]

That Trough would eventually force the Hurricane to either Florida, or just east of it, but it's beyond the GFS limit & we would never know what happens next.

[johngaltfla]

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif

There's the GFS, then there is the GFS-c (GFS on crack)...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1450980279057850368

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1450980279057850368

TOO Funny, and yet SO true

[Teban54]

0z GFS develops it again, but this time stays just to the south of PR and intensifies much slower. Would bring heavy rainfall to PR though.

Edit: Lol what? 989 mb to 969 mb in 6 hours?

[kevin]

00z GFS run: