Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

20z special OUN sounding shows a pretty hefty cap in place. It's gonna take some work to break that. On the other hand, that could mean the storms could remain discrete since only some of them would break the cap. Also have a lot more cloud cover here now, although I'm not sure that will hurt it much since it's been sunny most of the day.

[Stormgodess]

I just came across this Tweet. What is yalls opinions of what he is saying? Being from SE Louisiana, and especially since the August 2016 floods we had here. Ive had a bit of a negative view of some forecasts, feeling like sometimes they are too conservative and dont give us the worst case scenario. Personally I would rather be over prepared and safe. Than possibly have my loved ones put in a life threatening weather event?

Ok sorry, hope I didnt derail any discussion. Just came across the tweet and it struck a nerve.

Stay safe any of you out there in the path of these storms. Sending clear sky and sunshine vibes out your way.

 https://twitter.com/StormChaseTV/status/1447286691786543104

[ElectricStorm]

Cell near Roosevelt looks like it could be a major problem. Will likely be tor warned soon. Currently severe warned for tennis ball hail

[Iceresistance]

Confirmed tornado seen on News 9 near Roosevelt, but the Reflectivity is INSANE!

[ElectricStorm]

If that thing holds together for another hour it'll be right on top of me

[ElectricStorm]

Circulation about to go right over me. Getting pounded by hail now.

80+ mph winds went through OKC. In the inflow notch here but the rotation isn't very strong thankfully

[ElectricStorm]

Thankfully this has been mostly a squall line/linear event, besides that one long lived supercell that is now part of the line. The 15 hatched has nowhere near verified so far however with the LLJ increasing, that could always change as it moves east.
The 30 hatched hail and 45 hatched wind have definitely verified

[Brent]

Nothing overly impressive here. Seem to be between storms with a stronger cell north and a tornado warning to the southeast. The linear aspect really helped in general for sure

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like Coweta, OK just took a direct hit from a strong QLCS tornado. I've got some relatives near there but it seemed to miss their area.

[Iceresistance]

My rain gauge recorded 2.3 inches, but it's likely closer to 2.5 & 2.75 inches because most of the heaviest rain was windblown

[ElectricStorm]

My thoughts on yesterday's event:
The supercellular strong tornado threat never fully materialized, although that was one heck of a supercell that tracked from Altus to Norman. It did manage to produce several tornadoes, although it appears none of them were very strong. Besides that storm, we didn't really see any other discrete cells initially.

The straight line wind threat most definitely verified, as did the the hail threat, especially in Norman, where areas of 3 inch hail were reported. The overnight QLCS tornado event was well-forecasted and certainly verified, with a couple of the spin ups even producing debris balls.

This was a very impressive event that you don't see in October very often, and I would say overall, the moderate risk certainly verified.

And on top of all that, we have another potentially significant severe weather event tomorrow.

[ElectricStorm]

Today is getting very serious. It's even more dangerous since it will be a nocturnal event. SPC mentions an upgrade is possible.

"However, 16Z surface observations suggest
warmer/moister surface conditions are running ahead of schedule
across southwest KS through the TX Panhandle. An upgrade to a
tornado-driven Moderate Risk may be needed in later outlooks should
this trend continue given the spread in guidance with regard to
near-surface thermodynamics and longevity of discrete supercell
structures."

[ElectricStorm]

Moderate risk is up. The parameters are extremely rare for this area in October

[Iceresistance]

Western Oklahoma Supercell near Willow needs to be watched.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Warning for Downtown OKC for a QLCS Mesocyclone that I managed to spot first develop near Mustang


EDIT: TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN DOWNTOWN OKC!

[Iceresistance]

There is a random Marginal risk today over most of Oklahoma

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS says another severe weather event may be on the way for the Plains. Pretty far out for now, but considering the GFS sniffed out the 10/10 and 10/12 events pretty far out (especially 10/12), we'll have to see if it may be on to something here. Euro also has some sort of dryline moving through around the same period, and as usual it's slower than the GFS. It's a week out, but we might have to watch for an event in the 10/26-10/27 range. With continued warm temps and rising temps by early next week, this could definitely become a possibility.

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD this morning raised my interest

The numerical models begin to diverge significantly by Sunday,
with the GFS staying the course on unseasonable warmth lasting
into early next week, while the ECMWF develops a strong upper
level storm system over Kansas, allowing a cold front to move
across the area with a severe weather threat late Sunday and
Sunday evening. The UKMET splits the difference with a lean
towards the ECMWF, with a cold front but a much weaker upper level
system. For now, will add low pops for Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Another storm system looks to affect the area by Tuesday night and
Wednesday of next week, but the details are sketchy and will need
to be ironed out with time.

Stayed close to the National Blend of Models forecast until
Sunday. Significant changes to the forecast for Sunday and beyond
may occur over the coming days, so stay tuned!

[Iceresistance]

Broad Slight Risk for Sunday, it appears that Dry Line is along I-35

[ElectricStorm]

The next SPC disco for Sunday should be interesting. I'm not expecting a Day 3 enhanced at this point, although the way this month has gone so far anything is possible. I do think this will eventually be enhanced+ at some point though. I believe OK has set a state record for number of tornadoes in October (around 27-28 I believe), which is more than double the previous record, and more than double what we had in May this year, and that's not including whatever we get from Sun. and Tuesday.

Also the SPC mentioned they may highlight an area for next week in the next few outlooks so that could get interesting as well.