Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Very broad Enhanced risk for Sunday.
This is a May-Like Setup from Northern Texas to Southern Nebraska, a very broad Slight Risk, an Enhanced risk may be needed in the next couple days given the model trends.
This is a May-Like Setup from Northern Texas to Southern Nebraska, a very broad Slight Risk, an Enhanced risk may be needed in the next couple days given the model trends.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I skimmed through the SPC archive and found that up until 10/10, there had not been a moderate risk in Oct anywhere in the US since 2014. We have had 2 already this month, with potential for 2 more in the next several days. Unreal
Really shows how crazy this month has been
Really shows how crazy this month has been
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
10 hatched tor risk up for day 2, mostly over MO. Probably a good chance this goes moderate at some point, but they'll probably wait until the day of to make that call.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:41 am
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I'm curious what the Fall severe weather season is going to hold since it's already this active in October, usually things don't ramp up until November & December, especially in the Southeast/Dixie Alley when they have their secondary tornado season.
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Old account "Newtotex"
Most memorable tornadoes: 1997 & 2000 Tuscaloosa Tornadoes, 1998 Oak Grove Tornado
Hurricane Opal/Ivan/Katrina
Most memorable tornadoes: 1997 & 2000 Tuscaloosa Tornadoes, 1998 Oak Grove Tornado
Hurricane Opal/Ivan/Katrina
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Strongly concerned with the Dewpoints right now, they're already at the Low to Mid 60s right now in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma (Basically I-35 & East of it, even though that some Observations has Mid-60s Dewpoints elsewhere like Enid)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Today's event is well underway now, with multiple tornado watches up and a few confirmed tornadoes already. It appears Purdin, MO has taken a direct hit from a powerful tornado.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Tornado on the ground near Sedalia, MO, they got lucky.
Another Tornado on the Ground SW of Kirksville, I know a relative living in Kirksville
Another Tornado on the Ground SW of Kirksville, I know a relative living in Kirksville
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Never thought I would say this anytime soon but whats happening in MO right now looks like 4/12. Both PDS warned with huge debris ball. That's up there with craziest couplets I've seen.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Oh great now there's a third big couplet following the other 2. Wow
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Fredericktown and Junction City just took a big hit. Next town up is Perryville. They took a huge hit from an EF4 a few years ago so that would not be good if they get another strong one.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
This outbreak is right up there with 3/25 for the event of the year in terms of intensity IMO. Seems like every tornado touching down is strong and plows into a town, similar to that event. Tragic.
EDIT: TOR-E for the town of Chester. Just got obliterated
EDIT: TOR-E for the town of Chester. Just got obliterated
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Enhanced risk in place AGAIN for from Kansas to Texas, it's May all over again.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Based on the latest model runs and 1630z SPC disco, today doesn't really look very impressive. They have trimmed the enhanced risk down and removed the hatched area for wind, and most of the model runs really don't even have much getting going at all in the enhanced risk, besides a line that develops and moves through central OK late tonight before quickly weakening as it moves east.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Instability increasing in SW Oklahoma with clearing & daytime heating, CAPE is over 2000 & Dewpoints are in the mid-60s
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Turns out the HRRR has absolutely whiffed on moisture return today. Could get more serious than what the models are showing. I'm more concerned now than I was this morning.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Welp. Just had a tornado warning here and that was a close call it may have passed right over right before the sirens went off. Might be on the ground now right by the radar
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
A bunch of inflow notches on this line. Might need a warning soon for Shawnee
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
PDS Tornado warning near Orange, TX, crossing over into Louisiana
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Look at these, happened in Orange, TX this morning: https://twitter.com/12NewsNow/status/1453382563960168459
https://twitter.com/p_orchardwxguy/status/1453383985933996045
https://twitter.com/p_orchardwxguy/status/1453383985933996045
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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