EPAC: RICK - Remnants

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1452000584626851852

[Teban54]

It seems that Rick's massive outer band is robbing momentum from the core and causing it to struggle and remain extremely small. The core might be undergoing some dynamics as well; the IR appearance looks a little EWRC-y.
https://i.imgur.com/1s2CFnh.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/I1gCqGq.jpg

Since this post was made, the band started poofing and a large area of -80C convection has developed around the S eyewall.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably 80/978 per Recon despite the weak FL winds (which are not uncommon for a deepening system).

[Yellow Evan]

It seems that Rick's massive outer band is robbing momentum from the core and causing it to struggle and remain extremely small. The core might be undergoing some dynamics as well; the IR appearance looks a little EWRC-y.
https://i.imgur.com/1s2CFnh.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/I1gCqGq.jpg

Since this post was made, the band started poofing and a large area of -80C convection has developed around the S eyewall.

Convective bursts are still getting stuck a little but the overall structure is CDO dominant and the banding gap is fading, which means less room for dry air off the continent to get sucked in.

[cycloneye]

A west jog.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RICK'S PACE OF
STRENGTHENING HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 101.8 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rick is expected to resume strengthening by tonight
and become a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft
observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch



Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick continued to strengthen through the late morning, with a brief
appearance of an eye in visible satellite images. Over the past few
hours the eye has become less apparent, and the Central Dense
Overcast (CDO) has become a bit elongated. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the hurricane late this
afternoon and was able to provide beneficial data regarding Rick's
structure and intensity. During the flight, the aircraft measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 80 kt (which reduce to 72 kt at
the surface), and SFMR surface winds of 81 kt a little earlier in
the flight. A blend of these values suggests the initial advisory
intensity is 75 kt, which agrees well with unanimous 77-kt Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The
aircraft also confirmed that the core of Rick is compact, with
tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 50 n mi from the
center. However, earlier scatterometer data sampled winds to near
tropical storm force in the large curved band that wraps around much
of the hurricane's center at a distance of 100 to 150 n mi.

Rick has jogged west-northwest over the past couple hours, but the
12 h motion is about 335/05 kt. There is no change to the forecast
track reasoning. Rick is expected to resume a motion between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days.
The track model guidance has come into better agreement, and the
only notable change to the NHC forecast track was during the first
12 h to adjust for the recent left-of-track motion.

The environment of sea-surface temperatures near 30 degrees C and
very low shear should support a fast pace of strengthening over the
next day or so. The only factor that could inhibit the pace of
intensification is the presence of a dry moat between the CDO and
outer band, and some of this dry air could get drawn into the core
of Rick. However, based on the other favorable factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening through Sunday
morning. As the hurricane nears the coast in 36 h, dry air and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear may weaken the cyclone.
The latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for Rick to reach
major hurricane intensity on Sunday, despite the recent pause in
strengthening. This forecast remains on the high end of the
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 101.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[InfernoFlameCat]

The storm is bombing out right now. It really is getting its act together with a pin hole eye developing in a -70C ring.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1452017298022281216

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1452023584201887746

[aspen]

The storm is bombing out right now. It really is getting its act together with a pin hole eye developing in a -70C ring.

It actually looks slightly worse because while convection is deepening, there’s no sign of an eye. The deepest convection might not be over the core right now.

[aspen]

Broken but still a pinhole.

[Ubuntwo]

[Yellow Evan]

Deep convection doesn’t seem to be wrapping around upshear at all again. If it lasts, we could have another bust on our hands.

[aspen]

If Rick’s pinhole eye is able to close off, then it could explode in the last 24-30 hours before shear picks up. The system has become CDO-dominant, the large band robbing momentum is gone, SSTs are extremely favorable, shear remains low for now, and Rick’s outflow setup is quite good.

The good news about a pinhole is that it makes Rick far more prone to rapid structural collapse when shear increases. Just look at Delta or Parma.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.1 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. While Rick has strengthened little during the past few
hours, it is expected to resume strengthening tonight and become a
major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Ubuntwo]

Tongue of dry air rotated into Rick's core, eroding away the pinhole.

I am guessing this will wrap up into a larger eye eventually. That disruption should place a ceiling on its potential.

[aspen]

Tongue of dry air rotated into Rick's core, eroding away the pinhole.
https://i.imgur.com/GPo6bUh.png
I am guessing this will wrap up into a larger eye eventually. That disruption should place a ceiling on its potential.

It still looks like there’s a partial pinhole structure in there. Maybe the pinhole becomes dominant again, maybe the outer bands take over. Who knows. Recon should give us a better assessment of the internal dynamics in a few hours.

[Yellow Evan]

17E RICK 211024 0000 15.1N 101.9W EPAC 75 978

Not sure what justifies this.

[Yellow Evan]

Tongue of dry air rotated into Rick's core, eroding away the pinhole.
https://i.imgur.com/GPo6bUh.png
I am guessing this will wrap up into a larger eye eventually. That disruption should place a ceiling on its potential.

Much better here.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

17E RICK 211024 0000 15.1N 101.9W EPAC 75 978

Not sure what justifies this.

It looks like they're holding steady from the previous recon flight's data, as there hasn't been an incredibly notable improvement (or much of a change while the thing fights a tongue of dry air) in convective appearance/structure. I wouldn't be surprised to see this value being an underestimate, though.

Next recon is up and out from Biloxi.