EPAC: RICK - Remnants

[Ubuntwo]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/901641187599999016/image0.png?width=406&height=406

Much better here.

Yes, the 00:47z pass shows marked improvement.

[Hurricane2021]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/901641187599999016/image0.png?width=406&height=406

Much better here.

Yes, the 00:47z pass shows marked improvement.
https://i.imgur.com/TlyQulm.png

Im nearly 100% confident that was the outer that paused the RI of Rick now...

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.0 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night, and make
landfall on the coast of Mexico late Sunday night or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. While Rick has strengthened little during the past several
hours, it is expected to strengthen tonight and become a major
hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

17E RICK 211024 0000 15.1N 101.9W EPAC 75 978

Not sure what justifies this.

It looks like they're holding steady from the previous recon flight's data, as there hasn't been an incredibly notable improvement (or much of a change while the thing fights a tongue of dry air) in convective appearance/structure. I wouldn't be surprised to see this value being an underestimate, though.

Next recon is up and out from Biloxi.

Except Dvorak estimates from TAFB have reached T5.0 when it was previously T4.5 and there’s definitely been inner core improvement. And I didn’t like how the NHC blended flight level winds with SFMR at the 21z advisory either.

[Ubuntwo]

Except Dvorak estimates from TAFB have reached T5.0 when it was previously T4.5 and there’s definitely been inner core improvement. And I didn’t like how the NHC blended flight level winds with SFMR at the 21z advisory either.

I am seeing T4.5 from both SAB and TAFB at 23:30z. Agree with you on the blending.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240239
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick appears to have stopped strengthening for the moment. The eye
seen earlier in visible imagery has disappeared, and recent
microwave imagery shows that the eyewall located under the central
dense overcast has become less organized. There is an unusually
large spread of satellite intensity estimates from 60-90 kt, and
based on the satellite trends since the earlier reconnaissance
aircraft left the storm, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt.
Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus
outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

Rick has slowed its forward motion a little and is now moving 340/4
kt. The hurricane is expected to move slowly north-northwestward to
northward during the next couple of days as it moves through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from Mexico.
There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is basically the same as the
previous forecast through 36 h. After that, the new track is a
little of the west of the previous track. On the forecast track,
the center of Rick will make landfall along the coast of Mexico near
or just after the 36 h point, then move farther inland over Mexico
during the subsequent 24 h.

Rick is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light
shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 18-24 h. Based
on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to
begin again in the next few hours and for Rick to reach major
hurricane strength in about 24 h. After that, some weakening could
occur before landfall due to increasing shear and land interaction
with the coastal mountains of Mexico. Rick should rapidly weaken
after landfall, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over
Mexico by 72 h. Before landfall, the new intensity forecast is at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 102.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 26/0000Z 19.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 20.8N 104.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Both of these are 75 knots apparently.

Also SATCON is being held down by AMSU which hasn’t updated in a couple days so not sure why weight is being given towards that.

[MarioProtVI]

If Rick fails to intensify much further then the NHC needs to do some serious investigation into their modelling and intensity forecasting post-season because that would be two massive busts in a row after the intensity disaster that was Pamela in terms of intensity and investigation into what models missed in the atmosphere that kept the actual intensity far below what was modeled.

[Ubuntwo]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/901665527062204436/20211023.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/901665532611293224/20211024.png

Both of these are 75 knots apparently.

Also SATCON is being held down by AMSU which hasn’t updated in a couple days so not sure why weight is being given towards that.

This subjective analysis kept it 75kt. Maybe written before the newer microwave pass which paints a different picture.

Rick appears to have stopped strengthening for the moment. The eye
seen earlier in visible imagery has disappeared, and recent
microwave imagery shows that the eyewall located under the central
dense overcast has become less organized.

[Kingarabian]

If Rick fails to intensify much further then the NHC needs to do some serious investigation into their modelling and intensity forecasting post-season because that would be two massive busts in a row after the intensity disaster that was Pamela in terms of intensity and investigation into what models missed in the atmosphere that kept the actual intensity far below what was modeled.

It's due to unmodeled mid shear that the models suck at regardless, and more subsidence than normal from the Mexican terrain. I thought Rick had that look and was destined to be a major hurricane... but alas it is a La Nina in place.

[zzh]

From NHC's discussion:

Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus
outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

[Kingarabian]

From NHC's discussion:

Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus
outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

Clear as day for the past 8 hours it was localized subsidence over the system. However it looks like it's trying again.

[Yellow Evan]

Although Rick clearly has struggled to rotate convection upshear at times, I’m not really sure the storm had a particularly like leveling off period - maybe from 18z to 22z or so cold tops then quickly cooled and microwave suggests a solid improvement in structure shortly thereafter. A warm spot is starting to appear in IR imagery so the door remains open for a quick round of intensification overnight.

[Yellow Evan]

If Rick fails to intensify much further then the NHC needs to do some serious investigation into their modelling and intensity forecasting post-season because that would be two massive busts in a row after the intensity disaster that was Pamela in terms of intensity and investigation into what models missed in the atmosphere that kept the actual intensity far below what was modeled.

How much of a bust is this even if this caps up at Category 2? That was what the expectation was until yesterday evening really. Certainly not on the level of a bust that was Pamela.

[Ubuntwo]

From what I can gather, the earlier outer banding entrained continental dry air. This heavily eroded the eastern eyewall. A burst did eventually wrap and insulate the core. Allowing for continued deepening.

For a moment there core collapse was on the table as convection struggled to wrap. Due to modest mid level shear which the GFS has modeled very well (unlike w/ Pamela).


Edit: ^ Was never off the table and indeed has happened. The dry tongue never really mixed out so that and mid shear was enough to kill the pinhole.

[Yellow Evan]

Definitely expected a lower pressure than what Recon has found.

[Yellow Evan]

No eye and VDM comes with rising pressure. This is going absolutely nowhere.

[Ubuntwo]

No eye and VDM comes with rising pressure. This is going absolutely nowhere.

Indeed it looks like the core collapse has happened. We'll see what Rick can scrape together with less than 24 hours to landfall.

[MarioProtVI]

Seems like Rick is rickrolling itself