Texas Fall 2021

[Brent]

New GFS and CMC runs have freezing temps in Texas panhandle and the GFS has 3 (yes, 3) snowstorms across the entire panhandle from Amarillo to Lubbock. Some very nice looking eye candy.

https://i.imgur.com/lD4Iyqv.jpg

[Ntxw]

Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png

Ensembles are in good agreement that we will see a period of below normal temps across Texas. However, as you pointed out above, if our source region was currently below normal then this would be a rather significant early season cold snap. One thing to watch, is this transition period setting the stage for a winter with repeating blocking episodes in the NAO region or is it going to be transitory? IMHO, there are reasons to believe that we will see some sustained -NAO periods resulting in a rather chilly Nov & Dec.

I think so too on the blocking. Blocking and non-blocking years tends to come back to back/bunches together. The big difference will be the PDO.

[Haris]

EURO now showing highs in the 40s too with snow in OK

[Brent]

EURO now showing highs in the 40s too with snow in OK

[Cpv17]

The CPC isn’t really sold on any big cool down. At least not yet.

[Brent]

Low 60s for highs at the end of the forecast here that would be below normal and of course the Euro would be colder

[Ntxw]

The CPC isn’t really sold on any big cool down. At least not yet.

I think that's a decent approach. There really isn't any major cold air masses, it's barely freezing in a lot of Canada. It's just the broad pattern is going to change so no more persistent returning heat.

Snow in the higher ground of the Panhandles isn't unusual with big upper low features this time of year but not always associated with a major cold snap.

[Ntxw]

Some more evidence a shift is coming. Pacific jet retraction pulls back the GOA low to the Aleutians (more El Nino-y) position. So there is support for the PNA or EPO ridge to appear.


Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.

[lukem]

Some more evidence a shift is coming. Pacific jet retraction pulls back the GOA low to the Aleutians (more El Nino-y) position. So there is support for the PNA or EPO ridge to appear.


Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.
https://i.imgur.com/dWUAkr3.png

12Z GFS showing major rain in Texas for the first part of November.

[Haris]

Snow near DFW on euro

[bubba hotep]

Snow near DFW on euro

Was just coming to post that

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.

[Brent]

Snow near DFW on euro

Was just coming to post that

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.

one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe

I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today

[bubba hotep]

Svr Wx Day on Tap for Tomorrow across the Region

[HockeyTx82]

Snow near DFW on euro

Was just coming to post that

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.

one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe

I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today

https://i.ibb.co/LzvT8cM/sn10-acc-us-sc.png

Lock it in. That's crazy if that were to verify that early in the season. I remember last Winter we all doubted the models and we got hammered with once and a lifetime cold snap.

I remember reading something about this Winter being the second shot of cold because we are just in that pattern. Anyone buying that with all the cold we had last year?

[cheezyWXguy]

Was just coming to post that

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.

one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe

I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today

https://i.ibb.co/LzvT8cM/sn10-acc-us-sc.png

Lock it in. That's crazy if that were to verify that early in the season. I remember last Winter we all doubted the models and we got hammered with once and a lifetime cold snap.

I remember reading something about this Winter being the second shot of cold because we are just in that pattern. Anyone buying that with all the cold we had last year?

It’s possible, but social media is definitely overstocking the hype train. I’ve seen several instances and even heard from relatives that they’re worried because “it’s going to happen again this winter”. The projected certainty I hear and see from these people can frustrating, considering how rare of an event that was.

Granted, there seems to be basis for consideration, and it sounds like some of the large scale pattern indicators will be there. TheProfessor has a good post going into detail on this in the winter weather thread.

It does make me a little on edge, because the current vulnerability of our power infrastructure means we may not need an event as severe as last winter’s to cause problems. A classic Texas ice/sleet storm like December 2013 could do the trick. My personal opinion is we should keep an eye out and be prepared for a situation like this, but we’re not even close to sounding the alarm bells.

[Iceresistance]

[TheProfessor]

The 0z Canadian would be insane. 3" of snow for Wichita in the first week of November. Lock it in!

[gpsnowman]

The 0z Canadian would be insane. 3" of snow for Wichita in the first week of November. Lock it in!

Yeah the middle of next week is looking a little cooler down here with perhaps a couple days in the 60's. We shall see but the fall weather could be here to stay.

In the meantime get ready for a good line of storms overnight.

[Brent]

GFS drops the winter hammer next week

[gpsnowman]

:cold: GFS drops the winter hammer next week

https://i.ibb.co/2PNWSK6/gfs-T2ma-scus-38.png

Wow!! The 60's next week might need to be adjusted!! And that is not that far out. Yes please.