WPAC: INVEST 90W

[Hayabusa]

90W.INVEST

90W INVEST 211027 0600 7.6N 159.5E WPAC 15 0

90W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.7.6N.159.5E

[Hayabusa]

Euro was showing a low previously but latest run nada.

[Hayabusa]

Hmm don't know if it's still 90W but GFS 12Z has a big increase in ensemble (and also a strong operational run)

[Hayabusa]

Now low chance

ABPW10 PGTW 291930 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/291930Z-300600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N
150.3E, APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291156Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS
EVIDENCE OF A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WSW OF CHUUK,
ALBEIT A WEAK SIGNATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HOWEVER REVEALS THE
SYSTEM TO BE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE OUTLIER AND
CONSOLIDATES THE WAVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON OR BEFORE 01/00Z
IVO OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF A FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

[Hayabusa]

GFS is currently the only one (aside from ICON) developing this, even the CMC is not developing but t'was in the previous long range runs. Euro too it was showing a low forming and then dropped but ensembles still show support.
Latest Euro 18Z

[Hayabusa]

Latest 00Z multimodel, that NAVGEM track but meh it's the NAVGEM. But I wouldn't point too much on the GFS, it loves to do east/recurve tracks.
Euro is now tracking it too but it doesn't intensify.

Euro ensemble, lots of west trackers

[MHC Tracking]

Can we not...

[Hayabusa]

06Z

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS backed off on intensity, it also became a west tracker

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the operational GFS dropped this like hot potato but the ensembles are still pretty much showing something strong enough to warrant another named storm.

[Hayabusa]

Gone from the latest advisory, even the GFS op too, only the vort is discernible

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2021-010600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Gone from the latest advisory, even the GFS op too, only the vort is discernible

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2021-010600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

https://i.imgur.com/4mZ0NzQ.jpg

Looks like it's making a comeback (sort of)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... _loop.html

[Hayabusa]

Gone from the latest advisory, even the GFS op too, only the vort is discernible

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2021-010600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

https://i.imgur.com/4mZ0NzQ.jpg

Looks like it's making a comeback (sort of)
https://i.imgur.com/nwtrZZC.gif
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... _loop.html

As 90W is already offline, it's going to be 91W soon™
Latest ensemble, even after GFS has dropped it, its ensemble including Euro still continues to show possible development despite being weaker.