ATL: WANDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1454228062887944193

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1454231876508418049

[Ubuntwo]

Improving with the strongest winds just west of center. Still embedded in a broader circulation but not far off.

Models have convection waning before ramping up again late Saturday into Sunday morning. That should be 94's best shot at getting a name.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

[MHC Tracking]

Personally, I've had it as an STC since around 18z yesterday. I expect the TCR will extend the duration rather significantly, provided it ever gets designated. It likely will though, as it is fully sparated from its fronts. The next TWO will likely raise the chances further, and we might have an SS at 10am, or 4pm.

[aspen]

Improving with the strongest winds just west of center. Still embedded in a broader circulation but not far off.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/686965241266962434/903808362624483348/20211029.png?width=676&height=676
Models have convection waning before ramping up again late Saturday into Sunday morning. That should be 94's best shot at getting a name.

So far 94L has followed those model solutions. Convection has waned overnight. We’ll see later today if convection deepens again.

[cycloneye]

Showers continue to show some signs of organization near a strong,
frontal low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The nontropical low is
likely to lose its associated fronts this weekend while it moves
southeastward toward slightly warmer waters, and thereafter it could
transition to a subtropical storm later this weekend or early next
week over the central Atlantic. The system is expected to turn
northward and move toward colder waters by the middle of next week.
For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/903832175126933515/GOES16_1km_swir_202110300215_35.png?width=928&height=676

Classifiable

[tolakram]

I see the experts have come out to tell the NHC they are wrong.

[wwizard]

I see the experts have come out to tell the NHC they are wrong.

You act like they can't be wrong. They change things post analysis all the time.

[Ubuntwo]

A strong low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues to produce
some shower activity near and to the east of its center while moving
southeastward at around 15 mph. The low appears to be gradually
losing its frontal structure, and the system is likely to transition
to a subtropical storm by early next week while it meanders over the
central subtropical Atlantic. By the middle of next week, the
system is expected to turn northward and move toward colder waters.
For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[CrazyC83]

It's borderline but you could make an argument now that it is a TC or STC. However, since no land is in the way, there is no need to pull the trigger until it is obvious.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

It's borderline but you could make an argument now that it is a TC or STC. However, since no land is in the way, there is no need to pull the trigger until it is obvious.

Thinking it'll be named in time to avoid a storm-free October?

[zzh]

It's borderline but you could make an argument now that it is a TC or STC. However, since no land is in the way, there is no need to pull the trigger until it is obvious.

Even though there is no land, there are ships.

[aspen]

Have there been any documented impacts of solar storms on weather? 94L is pretty close to the range of latitudes that will experience auroras from the Coronal Mass Ejection tonight.

[zzh]

I see the experts have come out to tell the NHC they are wrong.

Please tell us where the front is and how you find it.

[AnnularCane]

Up to 90/90 already.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the
center of a gale-force low pressure system located over the central
Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
The low continues to lose its frontal structure, and the system is
likely to transition to a subtropical storm later tonight or on
Sunday while it moves southeastward over the central subtropical
Atlantic. By the middle of next week, the system is expected to
turn northward and move toward colder waters. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.