EPAC: TERRY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2021110306, , BEST, 0, 85N, 858W, 25, 1008, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system located over the far eastern Pacific more than
100 miles southwest of Costa Rica is gradually becoming better
defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show
signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. The system is forecast to move slowly westward
to west-northwestward away from the coast of Central America during
the next several days. Regardless of development, this disturbance
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of
Costa Rica through today, which could result in flooding and
mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2021110312, , BEST, 0, 85N, 861W, 25, 1008, LO

[MHC Tracking]

Looks rather good already. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a TC within 12-24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks almost there already yeah.

[cycloneye]

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure
system located over the far eastern Pacific a couple of hundred
miles southwest of Costa Rica continues to become better defined.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is also showing signs of
organization. A tropical depression is now likely to form during
the next day or two as the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward away from the coast of Central America.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Costa Rica through today,
which could result in flooding and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

HWRF, as usual for its first run(s), has a pinhole major. If this verifies then I’ll eat my shoe. A November EPac major is so unusual for a Nina year, especially a season that has had a lot of struggles.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF, as usual for its first run(s), has a pinhole major. If this verifies then I’ll eat my shoe. A November EPac major is so unusual for a Nina year, especially a season that has had a lot of struggles.

Don’t use HWRF on an invest ever. Although FWIW 1 of 2 November majors did occur in a La Niña.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932021 11/03/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 26 27 28 33 38 42 47 50 52 54 58 62
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 26 27 28 33 38 42 47 50 52 54 58 62
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 31 28 26 24 22 21 21 20 21 20 20 20 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 7 9 9 9 7 10 10 13 8 12 11 8 6 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 5 3 2 0 0 1 3 -3 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 225 187 209 243 274 281 322 315 346 10 27 15 348 353 347 251 243
SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.8 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.3 27.8 27.8 27.6 28.2 28.9 28.9 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 131 132 140 145 143 143 137 142 142 141 147 153 152 152
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 71 68 74 76 76 74 75 72 68 66 67 70 73 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 13 16
850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 28 20 10 4 -8 -22 -19 -31 -31 -31 -35 -39 -28 -29 -25
200 MB DIV 22 27 24 -16 -38 17 1 23 32 41 57 84 90 114 68 81 70
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 234 290 349 392 441 460 510 574 688 804 836 842 861 864 815 792 775
LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.2 88.8 89.3 89.8 90.8 91.9 93.2 94.9 96.9 98.8 100.7 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 10 10 9 9 11 11 9 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 3 5 5 5 10 13 13 16

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. 3. 8. 12. 18. 20. 22. 24. 28. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.8 87.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 11/03/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.8% 5.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 21.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.7% 5.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 7.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 11/03/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 031812
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 03/1730Z

C. 8.5N

D. 86.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLCC POSITION AND UNCLEAR CLOUD
FEATURES. BANDING IS RELATIVELY LINEAR AND NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
THUS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE

[Kingarabian]

Looks good for what it is. Still some localized subsidence in parts due to the same old N shear affecting it. Let's see if it can become something notable and get the season to 100 ACE. Hopefully avoids a landfall.

[bob rulz]

Seems really far south. How common are TC formations in this area? I honestly can't recall any in the 15 or so years I've been tracking cyclones.

[Yellow Evan]

93E INVEST 211104 0000 8.7N 88.3W EPAC 30 1007

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Costa Rica continue
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two
while the system moves generally westward away from the coast of
Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 032355
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 03/2330Z

C. 8.6N

D. 88.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER A
LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A
DEVELOPMENT TREND AND THE PT IS 2.0 AFTER AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Yellow Evan]

Probably classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 040555
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 04/0530Z

C. 8.7N

D. 88.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER A
LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A
DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION AND BECAUSE A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[cycloneye]

Recent satellite wind data indicates that the area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador has become
better-defined. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has become more concentrated overnight. If this
developmental trend continues, then the disturbance will likely
become a tropical depression later today. The system is expected to
move generally westward well to the south of the coast of Central
America and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.