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EPAC: SANDRA - Remnants
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139487
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or
early next week while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or
early next week while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139487
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Nov 5 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the coast of Guatemala.
Showers and thunderstorms remain concentrated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. In addition, recent satellite wind
data indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined and is producing winds of 30-35 mph. Environmental
conditions are marginally favorable for additional development and a
tropical depression is now likely to form by this weekend while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Nov 5 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the coast of Guatemala.
Showers and thunderstorms remain concentrated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. In addition, recent satellite wind
data indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined and is producing winds of 30-35 mph. Environmental
conditions are marginally favorable for additional development and a
tropical depression is now likely to form by this weekend while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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- Yellow Evan
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- InfernoFlameCat
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- Location: Buford, GA
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Its la nina, November, and we are about to have two tropical cyclones in the east pacific.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- weeniepatrol
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- Location: WA State
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its la nina, November, and we are about to have two tropical cyclones in the east pacific.
Yeah, all slop. Every metric but named storm count is still pathetic.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
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- Category 5
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
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- KirbyDude25
- Tropical Storm
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3467/ligwOQ.gif
One of these is a TC, and it's not the one on the left. What?
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New Jersey, Rutgers '27
Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Fay 2020 | Isaias 2020 | Ida 2021
Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Fay 2020 | Isaias 2020 | Ida 2021
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
I expect an NHC upgrade to at least a TD this afternoon. Weakening and dissipating Mon/Tue as it heads out to sea to the west.
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was
still elongated, only a small increase in organization will likely
lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression later
today as the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
further development by late Sunday into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was
still elongated, only a small increase in organization will likely
lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression later
today as the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
further development by late Sunday into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061751
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Nov 6 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located more than 500 miles south of Salina
Cruz, Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Only a small increase in organization will likely lead to the
formation of a short-lived tropical depression either today or
tomorrow as the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
ABPZ20 KNHC 061751
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Nov 6 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located more than 500 miles south of Salina
Cruz, Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Only a small increase in organization will likely lead to the
formation of a short-lived tropical depression either today or
tomorrow as the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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- Category 5
- Posts: 7293
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
707
ABPZ20 KNHC 071143
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Sun Nov 7 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located about 600 miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad low pressure system located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Recent polar-orbiting satellite data also suggests the
circulation is becoming better defined. If these trends continue,
this system is likely to become a short-lived tropical depression
later today while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for
further development by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
ABPZ20 KNHC 071143
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Sun Nov 7 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located about 600 miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad low pressure system located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Recent polar-orbiting satellite data also suggests the
circulation is becoming better defined. If these trends continue,
this system is likely to become a short-lived tropical depression
later today while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for
further development by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
**********************************************************************
CIRA/NESDIS Experimental AMSU-A TC Intensity/Size Estimation - NOAA18
Tropical Cyclone EP192021 NINETEEN
Current date/time: 2021 1107 1405 UTC
ATCF file date/time: 2021 1107 1200 UTC
AMSU swath date/time: 2021 1107 1200 UTC
INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION FAILED
Storm too far from center of AMSU data swath
Observed Distance: ***** km
Max allowable distance: 700. km
**********************************************************************
CIRA/NESDIS Experimental AMSU-A TC Intensity/Size Estimation - NOAA18
Tropical Cyclone EP192021 NINETEEN
Current date/time: 2021 1107 1405 UTC
ATCF file date/time: 2021 1107 1200 UTC
AMSU swath date/time: 2021 1107 1200 UTC
INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION FAILED
Storm too far from center of AMSU data swath
Observed Distance: ***** km
Max allowable distance: 700. km
**********************************************************************
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139487
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
800 AM MST Sun Nov 07 2021
The broad area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the last
several days well south of the Baja California Peninsula has
improved in organization this morning. Overnight scatterometer
data suggested that a better defined center was trying to develop
close to the deep convection. Microwave data from an 0857 UTC AMSR2
pass also indicated low-level cloud curvature on the 37-GHz
channel, suggesting a well-defined center had formed. Indeed, first
light 1-min visible imagery from a GOES-17 mesoscale domain now
shows a tight low-level swirl located just to the west of a new
burst of deep convection. All these data suggest the system's
circulation is now well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are both at CI 2.5/35 kt,
suggesting the depression may already be close to tropical storm
intensity.
The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 290/7 kt,
though uncertainty exists since the center only recently became
well-defined. The system currently lies along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This synoptic
pattern should allow the depression to maintain a west-northwest
motion over the next 12-24 hours while it remains vertically coupled
to the deep-convection. Afterwards, the remaining deep convection
is expected to dissipate and the leftover shallow vortex is
expected to be increasingly steered around a low-level ridge
offshore of the west coast of Mexico. This pattern should cause the
cyclone to turn westward and then west-southwestward over the
remainder of its lifespan. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement on this general solution, and the NHC official track lies
close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.
As mentioned above, the subjective satellite estimates already
suggest that this system could be near tropical storm intensity and
the peak wind from the overnight scatterometer data was 31 kt.
While the system is currently battling about 20-25 kt of
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, this magnitude is not
expected to change much during the next 12-24 hours. Thus, there is
an opportunity for some slight intensification, which is reflected
in the NHC intensity forecast which takes the system up to a
35-kt tropical storm by tonight. However, increasing shear and a
drying mid-level environment should result in weakening beginning by
36 hours with the storm forecast to become a remnant low by
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the consensus
aids, but a bit below the latest HWRF/HMON runs which suggests a
slightly higher 40-45 kt peak intensity.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.6N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0000Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
800 AM MST Sun Nov 07 2021
The broad area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the last
several days well south of the Baja California Peninsula has
improved in organization this morning. Overnight scatterometer
data suggested that a better defined center was trying to develop
close to the deep convection. Microwave data from an 0857 UTC AMSR2
pass also indicated low-level cloud curvature on the 37-GHz
channel, suggesting a well-defined center had formed. Indeed, first
light 1-min visible imagery from a GOES-17 mesoscale domain now
shows a tight low-level swirl located just to the west of a new
burst of deep convection. All these data suggest the system's
circulation is now well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are both at CI 2.5/35 kt,
suggesting the depression may already be close to tropical storm
intensity.
The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 290/7 kt,
though uncertainty exists since the center only recently became
well-defined. The system currently lies along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This synoptic
pattern should allow the depression to maintain a west-northwest
motion over the next 12-24 hours while it remains vertically coupled
to the deep-convection. Afterwards, the remaining deep convection
is expected to dissipate and the leftover shallow vortex is
expected to be increasingly steered around a low-level ridge
offshore of the west coast of Mexico. This pattern should cause the
cyclone to turn westward and then west-southwestward over the
remainder of its lifespan. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement on this general solution, and the NHC official track lies
close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.
As mentioned above, the subjective satellite estimates already
suggest that this system could be near tropical storm intensity and
the peak wind from the overnight scatterometer data was 31 kt.
While the system is currently battling about 20-25 kt of
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, this magnitude is not
expected to change much during the next 12-24 hours. Thus, there is
an opportunity for some slight intensification, which is reflected
in the NHC intensity forecast which takes the system up to a
35-kt tropical storm by tonight. However, increasing shear and a
drying mid-level environment should result in weakening beginning by
36 hours with the storm forecast to become a remnant low by
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the consensus
aids, but a bit below the latest HWRF/HMON runs which suggests a
slightly higher 40-45 kt peak intensity.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.6N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0000Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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