ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

AL, 96, 2021111000, , BEST, 0, 353N, 602W, 60, 982, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 40, 60, 60, 1010, 240, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 052, SPAWNINVEST, al772021 to al962021,

[Category5Kaiju]

When 96L had a 0/0 chance merely 12 hours ago

[Nancy Smar]

TXNT27 KNES 100038
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 09/2330Z

C. 35.3N

D. 61.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. NO
MET AND PT AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM ST TO TROPICAL WITH NO
CLASSIFICATION 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[zhukm29]

Already 60kts imagine if it transitions with 65kt winds, I don't think that has ever happened before...

Definitely brings up the age-old question over whether a storm's first advisory could be a hurricane!

[Sciencerocks]

Already looks like a tropical storm!!! I'd go pretty high on this.

[zhukm29]

Already 60kts imagine if it transitions with 65kt winds, I don't think that has ever happened before...

Definitely brings up the age-old question over whether a storm's first advisory could be a hurricane!

Did some digging and apparently Noel 2001's first advisory was a hurricane - however, it was a subtropical storm before becoming a hurricane, but subtropical storms were not named at the time.

[Hammy]

Already 60kts imagine if it transitions with 65kt winds, I don't think that has ever happened before...

Definitely brings up the age-old question over whether a storm's first advisory could be a hurricane!

I believe both Lili in 1984 and Noel in 2001 started out as hurricanes on their first operational advisory, but shows how uncommon it is.

[Hurricanehink]

Up to 50%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong non-tropical low centered about 350 miles northeast of Bermuda continue to show signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite wind data indicate that winds of near hurricane force are occurring south of the center. This system has not yet acquired enough tropical cyclone characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. However, additional development is possible during the next day or two, and a subtropical storm could form during this time. After that time, the system is forecast to move over colder water and become absorbed by another non-tropical low. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That was unexpected

[zzh]

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.imgur.com/UMblMO0.jpg

Accounting for typical undersampling this is likely hurricane-force. Could see a Noel 2001-like transition.

I should also note that this further makes me believe Theta last year around this time did in fact achieve hurricane intensity since it was basically what 96L is now minus the fronts (sheared somewhat but had ASCAT of 60 kt). Appearance was identical too.

[Dean_175]

What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?

[wxman57]

What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?

The classification "subtropical" is intensity independent. It's still a subtropical storm whether winds are 35 kts or 135 kts. This storm system is still attached to a cold front. If it separates over the next 24 hours, then it will be STS Adria. Doesn't have much of a future.

[ChrisH-UK]

Invest 96L looking nice this morning.

Source GOES-16 CIRA GeoColor - https://col.st/2Wle4

[ChrisH-UK]

Latest ASCAT is showing winds in the 40-50 knt range.

[KirbyDude25]

Latest ASCAT is showing winds in the 40-50 knt range.

https://i.imgur.com/Mppb9vs.png

A lot of the wind barbs look like they're 55-60 knots, with a few in the 65-70 kt range. Almost definitely a hurricane-force low.

[Teban54]

What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?

The classification "subtropical" is intensity independent. It's still a subtropical storm whether winds are 35 kts or 135 kts. This storm system is still attached to a cold front. If it separates over the next 24 hours, then it will be STS Adria. Doesn't have much of a future.

Can a subtropical storm have 135 kts winds?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?

The classification "subtropical" is intensity independent. It's still a subtropical storm whether winds are 35 kts or 135 kts. This storm system is still attached to a cold front. If it separates over the next 24 hours, then it will be STS Adria. Doesn't have much of a future.

Can a subtropical storm have 135 kts winds?

Something is whacky with the climate if we have a 135 knot subtropical storm.

[Hurricanehink]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/07/GOES16-TAW-07-900x540.gif

There does seem to be more convection near/over the center, versus eight hours ago.

[Sciencerocks]

Looking good.