Texas Fall 2021
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Take any model run 2 weeks out with a grain of salt. By tomorrow those same models may have a snowstorm across Austin.
Remember NTX average 1st freeze is November 22, so plenty of time for changes.
Remember NTX average 1st freeze is November 22, so plenty of time for changes.
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- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
GFS is a warm biasCaptinCrunch wrote:Take any model run 2 weeks out with a grain of salt. By tomorrow those same models may have a snowstorm across Austin.
Remember NTX average 1st freeze is November 22, so plenty of time for changes.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
starsfan65 wrote:is that good or bad?Iceresistance wrote:starsfan65 wrote:What are they saying about Thanksgiving?
Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
will we still get cold?Iceresistance wrote:starsfan65 wrote:is that good or bad?Iceresistance wrote:
Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
starsfan65 wrote:will we still get cold?Iceresistance wrote:starsfan65 wrote:is that good or bad?
Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)
Winter Cancel. I'll be over in the Spring and Summer threads.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
We have 12 days until Thanksgiving. The forecast will change.HockeyTx82 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:will we still get cold?Iceresistance wrote:
Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)
Winter Cancel. I'll be over in the Spring and Summer threads.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
starsfan65 wrote:We have 12 days until Thanksgiving. The forecast will change.HockeyTx82 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:will we still get cold?
Winter Cancel. I'll be over in the Spring and Summer threads.
Oh I know, just getting my winter cancel for the season out of the way.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
starsfan65 wrote:will we still get cold?Iceresistance wrote:starsfan65 wrote:is that good or bad?
Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)
Chilly, but no cold for most of Texas
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.
One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?
One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.
One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?
One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Ntxw wrote:In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.
One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?
One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.
Seems to me like models are suggesting too much of a positive PNA for us to cash in but that’s pretty far out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
The 12z euro is colder and has a big cold outbreak next week... But it's largely focused east of us. If this is valid the cold would peak Tuesday before Thanksgiving then start warming up for Thanksgiving more towards normal but it is the day 10 Euro so use with caution
Too early to tell but we need less PNA for sure if we're really gonna get cold



Last edited by Brent on Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.
One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?
One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.
Seems to me like models are suggesting too much of a positive PNA for us to cash in but that’s pretty far out.
The OPs all over different trough placement and what happens to a big ULL in the southwest/baja region. It's way out there though, it'll change 10x in the next 10 days. But it's good to see cold air around to use.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Brent wrote:The 12z euro is colder and has a big cold outbreak next week... But it's largely focused east of us. If this is valid the cold would peak Tuesday before Thanksgiving then start warming up for Thanksgiving more towards normal but it is the day 10 Euro so use with cautionToo early to tell but we need less PNA for sure if we're really gonna get cold
https://i.ibb.co/vDvMmk2/ecmwf-T850a-us-10.png
Only 24 hours after that, look what's coming from the NW of the first wave.


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
You can see on the 18z GFS the -NAO retrogrades more of west-based block that is more favorable vs mid Atlantic block. But it's just another solution of many until Turkey week.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Ntxw wrote:In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.
One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?
One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.
Do you have a link to the temperature anomalies?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
What a GFS run up here
big Thanksgiving storm one thing I'm getting from these models is that any kind of weather is possible for Thanksgiving lol warm and sunny warm and wet cold and dry cold and a storm?





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#neversummer
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
It will not be warm on Thanksgiving.Brent wrote:What a GFS run up here![]()
![]()
big Thanksgiving storm one thing I'm getting from these models is that any kind of weather is possible for Thanksgiving lol warm and sunny warm and wet cold and dry cold and a storm?
https://i.ibb.co/18BMfhH/gfs-asnow-scus-50.png
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
starsfan65 wrote:It will not be warm on Thanksgiving.Brent wrote:What a GFS run up here![]()
![]()
big Thanksgiving storm one thing I'm getting from these models is that any kind of weather is possible for Thanksgiving lol warm and sunny warm and wet cold and dry cold and a storm?
https://i.ibb.co/18BMfhH/gfs-asnow-scus-50.png
Can't rule anything out yet... Need to keep our expectations in check given it's day 10 if the PNA doesn't cooperate the fun could be east of us and we're seasonal or so
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Fall 2021
West based -NAO and connecting -AO showing up on the ensembles. Chances of a colder Thanksgivings growing. That block has been the persistent theme of the past 12 months.
It's also important to understand what it is you are blocking. That was a key I've been mentioning the past few days, build the cold air first then when you block it, you are working with colder continental air vs maritime.
These are all precursor signs of a pattern that has potential for winter storms moving beyond through December.
It's also important to understand what it is you are blocking. That was a key I've been mentioning the past few days, build the cold air first then when you block it, you are working with colder continental air vs maritime.
These are all precursor signs of a pattern that has potential for winter storms moving beyond through December.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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