Texas Fall 2021
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
The PNA is more Neutral than expected, we could pull this off at this rate.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
18z GFS is very interesting to me actually. Multiple close calls for snow, and while none of them really hit, a small change in initial conditions or a slightly different evolution of the flow patterns could allow for us to all cash in. Thanksgiving day has snow in the Panhandle, that Friday has snow in NWA, that following Monday has more snow in the Panhandle, and December 3rd has snow in Eastern Oklahoma. All it would take would be slightly more moisture at one time, or a slightly less progressive, deeper initial trough, or a slight change in direction for one of those to verify. So, while it’s discouraging that the operational models are inconclusive, the potential is more than there. We could easily see something like February-March 2015 again over a week period if the teleconnections work with us, and that’s something the models have always struggled with. Just waiting for the 00z GFS to finish to see if it changes much!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Cerlin wrote:18z GFS is very interesting to me actually. Multiple close calls for snow, and while none of them really hit, a small change in initial conditions or a slightly different evolution of the flow patterns could allow for us to all cash in. Thanksgiving day has snow in the Panhandle, that Friday has snow in NWA, that following Monday has more snow in the Panhandle, and December 3rd has snow in Eastern Oklahoma. All it would take would be slightly more moisture at one time, or a slightly less progressive, deeper initial trough, or a slight change in direction for one of those to verify. So, while it’s discouraging that the operational models are inconclusive, the potential is more than there. We could easily see something like February-March 2015 again over a week period if the teleconnections work with us, and that’s something the models have always struggled with. Just waiting for the 00z GFS to finish to see if it changes much!
Oh yeah I'm definitely not ruling out some kind of event that's for sure. The other point about it being November/first of December is it wouldn't take much to be a big event for this early
Just likely not what the Euro showed yesterday

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
I think we could get some flurries or a light dusting here in OK sometime around Thanksgiving but I think anything more than that is a stretch at this point. Should definitely get cold though. As long as there's no freezing rain and I don't have to drive back in snow then I'd be fine with it.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Weather Dude wrote:I think we could get some flurries or a light dusting here in OK sometime around Thanksgiving but I think anything more than that is a stretch at this point. Should definitely get cold though. As long as there's no freezing rain and I don't have to drive back in snow then I'd be fine with it.
Speaking of cold already below freezing here and the forecast was marginal for a freeze

I know this has nothing to do with next week probably but still

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
The Models expected the PNA to become more negative right now, but it's way more neutral than expected.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Nice brisk run this morning. Had to pull out the cold gear. Like they say, summer miles equals fall smiles!
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Colder than I expected at my house, heavy frost as well with ice on the pet's water before I went to school, 29°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Ended up at 31.5, so pretty impressive for here in north Fort Worth just west of 35. Far enough outside of the urban core still.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Got down to 27 in Norman. Another pretty significant temperature bust here (forecast was only about 30) just like the other morning here. It’s busts like these that make me hopeful for next week!
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Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9278
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Fall 2021
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.


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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
bubba hotep wrote:Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.
https://i.ibb.co/yXnhNZM/gfs-z500-vort-us-fh132-198.gif
If I can't have snow, I'll take rain any day!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- gboudx
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
bubba hotep wrote:Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.
In his daily POW Ponder Weather video today, Roy Ponder showed the multi-inch rain setup for a lot of Texas into Oklahoma. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
gboudx wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.
In his daily POW Ponder Weather video today, Roy Ponder showed the multi-inch rain setup for a lot of Texas into Oklahoma. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend.
Wouldn't that be a nice snow ratio..............
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- Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Fall 2021
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
PNA trends today were not that great. Too positive for next week.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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