Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cerlin]

So if memory serves me correctly a week or so ago this weekend looked like a possible snow storm around today. Thinking on it we had cold, last night, and now we have rain today. Just a timing thing again.

Yeah, we keep getting these glancing blows of semi cold air either preceding or following precipitation. Models line it up until about 10 days out where they drop it

[Iceresistance]

One of Heat Miser's biggest fears is a sudden stratwarm that will cause the extreme cold to come here, that is exactly what happened in February 2021, with the Stratwarm the month before (January 2021)

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wxman57, you will enjoy this winter most likely . Your wall looks pretty good. this winter appears to favor ridging that will keep the cold air out of most of texas.

[Cpv17]

Wxman57, you will enjoy this winter most likely . Your wall looks pretty good. this winter appears to favor ridging that will keep the cold air out of most of texas.

I don’t think the whole winter will be above average. We should see a few cold shots.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, you will enjoy this winter most likely . Your wall looks pretty good. this winter appears to favor ridging that will keep the cold air out of most of texas.

I don’t think the whole winter will be above average. We should see a few cold shots.

There are always "cold shots" each winter. My favorite winter was 1985-1986, when it was sunny and mild/warm all winter. Highs hit 90 in February, allowing me to go swimming at my apartment complex. I don't think this is shaping up to be a similar winter. La Nina winters are frequently warmer and drier than average, but it doesn't mean there won't be a chance of some significant cold (and maybe ice) at some point.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has colder air closer to Texas at 7-10 days out compared to the 12z GFS

[AustinTXResident]

One of Heat Miser's biggest fears is a sudden stratwarm that will cause the extreme cold to come here, that is exactly what happened in February 2021, with the Stratwarm the month before (January 2021)

Actually, that's not what caused the February 2021 Arctic outbreak. Instead, stretching of the polar vortex was the cause.

[Cerlin]

One of Heat Miser's biggest fears is a sudden stratwarm that will cause the extreme cold to come here, that is exactly what happened in February 2021, with the Stratwarm the month before (January 2021)

Actually, that's not what caused the February 2021 Arctic outbreak. Instead, stretching of the polar vortex was the cause.

You guys are both right! SSW events cause a weakening of the polar vortex, and weak polar vortexes can easily split and stretch as we saw in February 2021. One causes the other.

[TheProfessor]

February 2021 was a combination of an SSW weakening the PV allowing it to stretch and displace as well as a -EPO regime. Either one on it's own can bring the cold. Both of them together can lead to what we just saw and other extreme events. Frankly I don't think we want to see that again, especially with how much cold has stacked up in NW Canada and Alaska. (Also I have like have as much winter clothes now than I did a few years ago.)

[ElectricStorm]

I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.

[HockeyTx82]

I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.

I'm like you on this. Cold and snow is fun, but not life threatening cold and no power for 2 plus days. I was ready for the most part. But it still sucked.

[wxman57]

I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.

Note that there was little comparison temperature-wise to the 1983 and 1989 severe cold across Texas. The cold was more extreme and longer-lasting in each of those events. Never had any power issues back then, though.

[Iceresistance]

This is what Srainhoutx said in Wx Infinity not too long ago

Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.

[HockeyTx82]

I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.

Note that there was little comparison temperature-wise to the 1983 and 1989 severe cold across Texas. The cold was more extreme and longer-lasting in each of those events. Never had any power issues back then, though.

https://www.tsl.texas.gov/ref/abouttx/census.html

Our population has grown quite a bit since then and newer builds are not as gas dependent for heat it seems. Well, at least homes I was looking at 5 years ago. Most homes I've looked at or been in from that decade were gas for heat which is way less draw on the grid. Build, build, build but don't increase power demands for output and redundancy.

It appears we have doubled in population since 1980-1990.

All those Californians and folks from the northern midwest and NE moving in.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.

[Iceresistance]

Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.

The EPO was extremely positive & is being positive longer than the models expected, that's why the models have been trying to bring in the cold in the long range, only to back it off completely.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.

But there’s a big -EPO at 384hr! This time it’ll verify for sure.

[Iceresistance]

Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.

But there’s a big -EPO at 384hr! This time it’ll verify for sure.

The PNA is also Negative as well.


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

[aggiecutter]

[wxman57]

I'm almost certain that the 12Z GFS 384hr panel will be accurate. Yeah, right. Maybe a light freeze for D-FW on the 9th.