Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The CPC outlook for the next 4 weeks is ugly! Hopefully it’s wrong.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Starting to get a bit more optimistic for the end of the week next weekend system here in the Central Plains. That will be around the time we may be entering phase 7 with a -PNA and what seems to be a +NAO (though the most uncertain tele right now) and a mostly positive AO that the ensembles have bouncing around. With that setup I'm less concerned about cold air bleeding east and southeast but instead a storm that intensifies too quickly west of here like the CMC has (but if we get rain out of it I'd be happy). 12z Euro looked fun, not too much snow in Wichita proper, but would be a fun forecast for our CWA. I just want to see some run to run consistency though lol. Hopefully we will have some agreement (in favor of snow) by Tuesday so I can make a fancy AFD for my long range forecast.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TheProfessor wrote:Starting to get a bit more optimistic for the end of the week next weekend system here in the Central Plains. That will be around the time we may be entering phase 7 with a -PNA and what seems to be a +NAO (though the most uncertain tele right now) and a mostly positive AO that the ensembles have bouncing around. With that setup I'm less concerned about cold air bleeding east and southeast but instead a storm that intensifies too quickly west of here like the CMC has (but if we get rain out of it I'd be happy). 12z Euro looked fun, not too much snow in Wichita proper, but would be a fun forecast for our CWA. I just want to see some run to run consistency though lol. Hopefully we will have some agreement (in favor of snow) by Tuesday so I can make a fancy AFD for my long range forecast.
The CPC isn’t buying it:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Models definitely look less bleak than before but I'm still concerned about the Southeast ridge being too big and we largely torch outside of a cold day here and there
Yeah the CPC map is horrible no doubt but it's not like they've been perfect before
Yeah the CPC map is horrible no doubt but it's not like they've been perfect before
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:TheProfessor wrote:Starting to get a bit more optimistic for the end of the week next weekend system here in the Central Plains. That will be around the time we may be entering phase 7 with a -PNA and what seems to be a +NAO (though the most uncertain tele right now) and a mostly positive AO that the ensembles have bouncing around. With that setup I'm less concerned about cold air bleeding east and southeast but instead a storm that intensifies too quickly west of here like the CMC has (but if we get rain out of it I'd be happy). 12z Euro looked fun, not too much snow in Wichita proper, but would be a fun forecast for our CWA. I just want to see some run to run consistency though lol. Hopefully we will have some agreement (in favor of snow) by Tuesday so I can make a fancy AFD for my long range forecast.
The CPC isn’t buying it:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
We've seen CPC forecasts bust before, not to mention that to them above normal can be as simple as 1 degree and with us being above normal Friday ahead of the front and then possibly above normal towards the end of that period on the 12th and 13 it's reasonable to have above normal odd over those days and still have a short below normal period with winter precip. Though if the 12z Euro is right their forecast will be wrong.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I believe that there is a SSW going on right now . . .
10m Temp & Height is saying it all on the models.
10m Temp & Height is saying it all on the models.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:I believe that there is a SSW going on right now . . .
10m Temp & Height is saying it all on the models.
There is a tendency to overuse the SSW events. The vortex is quite strong top to bottom, there's always shifting and stretching here and there but overall it's stable. For a true SSW you need significant actual temperature warming of the stratosphere, wind reversal, a split, or significant displacement none of which is occurring or imminent.
You'll need a big Aleutian low or Eurasia heat flux events to begin the disruption process.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG
To be fair, the GEFS has also been very consistent and has actually progressed the colored contour line ever so slightly south over the day. Euro wins 7 days out 9/10 times but I wouldn’t necessarily toss aside the GFS ensembles just yet.
Last edited by Cerlin on Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
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All opinions independent of employers and the university.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG
Travis Herzog has 30’s in his forecast for Houston at the end of his forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG
Maybe not down there but definitely up here. May still not be that cold for December but compared to this week certainly. Actually Tuesday originally looked to be a quick warmup back near 70 and instead it's trended down to near 50 for a high. Next weekend looks like a potentially more significant cold. The snow yeah we'll see I'm not remotely buying it yet but it's certainly never gonna happen with a torch
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG
To be fair, the GEFS has also been very consistent and has actually progressed the colored contour line ever so slightly south over the day. Euro wins 7 days out 9/10 times but I wouldn’t necessarily toss aside the GFS ensembles just yet.
https://i.ibb.co/gd5mLM3/13318-B39-E5-BD-4-EA7-A93-E-1702-A401513-A.gif
I take it back. 00z GEFS was not promising.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:Cerlin wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG
To be fair, the GEFS has also been very consistent and has actually progressed the colored contour line ever so slightly south over the day. Euro wins 7 days out 9/10 times but I wouldn’t necessarily toss aside the GFS ensembles just yet.
https://i.ibb.co/gd5mLM3/13318-B39-E5-BD-4-EA7-A93-E-1702-A401513-A.gif
I take it back. 00z GEFS was not promising.
6z GEFS is even worse
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
Doesn't that has to happen over the NP and not over middle of Asia for the PV to get disrupted?
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NDG wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
Doesn't that has to happen over the NP and not over middle of Asia for the PV to get disrupted?
The SSW usually occurs on the outer edges of the PV (Usually near the Arctic Circle) & it can cause it to become unstable, the GFS is now hinting it as well on the 6z runs, showing the PV bending towards the CONUS at around Christmas Week.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Now the GFS moved the snow back north to Kansas and the European has snow down to Wichita Falls around the 11th.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021120400&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021120400&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
That Tuesday/Wednesday system is going to be sneaky for me. I think someone in my CWA sees there first measurable snowfall. The NAM is a little more excited than the GFS right now, but it has some ensemble support.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:NDG wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
Doesn't that has to happen over the NP and not over middle of Asia for the PV to get disrupted?
The SSW usually occurs on the outer edges of the PV (Usually near the Arctic Circle) & it can cause it to become unstable, the GFS is now hinting it as well on the 6z runs, showing the PV bending towards the CONUS at around Christmas Week.
From past experiences that I have seen the disruption in the PV doesn’t happen that fast after a SSW with the SSW usually happening much closer to the NP and not over the middle of Central Asia. I’m not holding my breath of it happening that quick.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I think the GFS just showed us how DFW could cash in on this next weekend's storm. This run actually screws me over as the GFS sends multiple energies around the trough so the first one goes north of me and the second one to the south. However, if we take that solution and shift the first storm where the Euro has it (Over Kansas) then that baroclinic zone sets up further south and the 2nd storm dumps snow over North Texas instead of Oklahoma. I'm personally rooting for this solution, but I know we'll probably get the one where I get nada lol.
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