WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 211205 1800 7.5N 131.0E WPAC 15 0

The GFS in previous runs was like making this into a potent storm

[zzh]

Nice bot

[mrbagyo]

Most guidance are showing this to initially track eastward then make a U-turn towards the normal Westward to WNW track towards Central or Southern Philippines.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro now also developing assuming that's still 95W because models seem to show another circulation east of 95W

[ManilaTC]

95W INVEST 211207 0000 6.4N 134.7E WPAC 15 1003

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[dexterlabio]

I'm torn because GFS has been so notorious in showing this kind of stuff then it never verifies, plus the cold and dry air from the north has already spread in the area.

Although GFS was first to pick up on Nyatoh...and a broken clock can still get the time right once in a while

[ManilaTC]

I'm torn because GFS has been so notorious in showing this kind of stuff then it never verifies, plus the cold and dry air from the north has already spread in the area.

Although GFS was first to pick up on Nyatoh...and a broken clock can still get the time right once in a while

Yeah a stopped clock can get the time right twice a day

[Hayabusa]

The next name is Rai from Micronesia, a short but ominous sounding name

[mrbagyo]

It's time for some model stuff. GFS is on crack again.

[wxman57]

There is no 95W in the West Pac. JTWC dropped that invest days ago. Models are developing something that is currently around 160E.

[Hayabusa]

There is no 95W in the West Pac. JTWC dropped that invest days ago. Models are developing something that is currently around 160E.

There is still 95W, the latest fix is from today at 06Z and its tracking history

95W INVEST 211207 0600 6.0N 135.3E WPAC 15 1004
95W INVEST 211207 0000 6.4N 134.7E WPAC 15 1003
95W INVEST 211206 1800 6.7N 134.2E WPAC 15 1003
95W INVEST 211206 1200 6.7N 133.7E WPAC 15 1004
95W INVEST 211206 0600 6.6N 133.2E WPAC 15 1005
95W INVEST 211206 0000 6.3N 132.8E WPAC 15 1010

[wxman57]

There is no 95W in the West Pac. JTWC dropped that invest days ago. Models are developing something that is currently around 160E.

There is still 95W, the latest fix is from today at 06Z and its tracking history

95W INVEST 211207 0600 6.0N 135.3E WPAC 15 1004
95W INVEST 211207 0000 6.4N 134.7E WPAC 15 1003
95W INVEST 211206 1800 6.7N 134.2E WPAC 15 1003
95W INVEST 211206 1200 6.7N 133.7E WPAC 15 1004
95W INVEST 211206 0600 6.6N 133.2E WPAC 15 1005
95W INVEST 211206 0000 6.3N 132.8E WPAC 15 1010

That is not what the models are developing, it's something around 160E not 135E. The system the models are developing doesn't pass south of Guam for 5 days, and Guam is at 144E, which is 10 deg east of 134E. None of the models is developing what's left of 95W. JTWC did remove 95W from their web page.

[Hayabusa]

There is no 95W in the West Pac. JTWC dropped that invest days ago. Models are developing something that is currently around 160E.

There is still 95W, the latest fix is from today at 06Z and its tracking history

95W INVEST 211207 0600 6.0N 135.3E WPAC 15 1004
95W INVEST 211207 0000 6.4N 134.7E WPAC 15 1003
95W INVEST 211206 1800 6.7N 134.2E WPAC 15 1003
95W INVEST 211206 1200 6.7N 133.7E WPAC 15 1004
95W INVEST 211206 0600 6.6N 133.2E WPAC 15 1005
95W INVEST 211206 0000 6.3N 132.8E WPAC 15 1010

That is not what the models are developing, it's something around 160E not 135E. The system the models are developing doesn't pass south of Guam for 5 days, and Guam is at 144E, which is 10 deg east of 134E. None of the models is developing what's left of 95W. JTWC did remove 95W from their web page.

It may be that 95W is not the models are showing but 95W is still being tracked and 12Z fix is now updated

95W INVEST 211207 1200 5.8N 135.9E WPAC 15 1004

[wxman57]

On the TPW loop, I can see what the models are developing. It's near 6N/162E on the last frame. No invest out for it yet:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=wpac&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

95W INVEST 211208 0000 5.6N 139.5E WPAC 15 1005

95W continues to move eastward riding along the strong low latitude westerlies.

[ElectricStorm]

Now it looks like this could actually be the potential low rider the GFS is showing.

[dexterlabio]

GFS up to its old tricks again with sub 940mb typhoon..in December..in the year 2021

[Hayabusa]

GFS up to its old tricks again with sub 940mb typhoon..in December..in the year 2021

It only gets that strong if it tracks in a higher latitude. The ensemble also shows this the higher lat the stronger it gets. Probably when it's a flat track it tracks faster so less time over water.

[Hayabusa]

Here we go first advisory mention

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N
142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS
PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.