Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Oh, and I would completely trust that the 6Z 384hr GFS panel is correct...
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Looks bad right now.
But MJO still showing some life as the ensembles and OP are now trying to move it to P7 and out into the Pacific. That'll help with the EPO. In turn, the models are showing some Okhotsk ->Aleutian low activity that may start to disturb the TPV. But that's way out there if it still sticks around.
The MJO is currently stuck in Phase 6, but it's still expected to move into Phase 7 in the next several Days.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Oh, and I would completely trust that the 6Z 384hr GFS panel is correct...
http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
I think I speak for all/most of us Lucy, I mean Wxman57: “Go away.”
All kidding aside, I fear we may get plenty of hot and dry weather next year. Especially next summer. You may get plenty of bike riding weather in 2022.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:This progressive pattern is not conducive to bringing the cold air south to Texas. I don't see a pattern change in the works prior to Christmas. Meanwhile, let's all enjoy the much above normal temperatures and be thankful that we're not dealing with ice and snow. La NIna winters are generally warm and dry across Texas.
I thought you liked snow? I thought that’s the only time you’re ok if it’s cold..
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
8-14 Day CPC is looking extremely ugly.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- starsfan65
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- wxman57
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:wxman57 wrote:This progressive pattern is not conducive to bringing the cold air south to Texas. I don't see a pattern change in the works prior to Christmas. Meanwhile, let's all enjoy the much above normal temperatures and be thankful that we're not dealing with ice and snow. La NIna winters are generally warm and dry across Texas.
I thought you liked snow? I thought that’s the only time you’re ok if it’s cold..
Correct, I do like snow, and if I ever see snow REALLY coming, then I'll be shouting from the highest overpass about it. Ideally, it would only snow when it's hot, like in July, but I can't have everything.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
starsfan65 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:8-14 Day CPC is looking extremely ugly.
warm?
Warm, heat, near records for December.
Still seeing subtle signs for the MJO. It's our chance to shake up the pattern but nothing immediate. I would say if this does come to fruition then a slow step down process after we pass the extreme mild pattern for the next 2 weeks.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
- TropicalTundra
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- Location: Temple, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up
The ICON's still holding on. Don't give up yet!
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:Cerlin wrote:I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up
The ICON's still holding on. Don't give up yet!
The ICON has some snow in the Panhandle Saturday morning and highs in the mid to upper 40s in the D-FW area. Not exactly a snow forecast. At least the high is below 80F this weekend up there.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:Cerlin wrote:I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up
The ICON's still holding on. Don't give up yet!
Even then, the ICON is losing snow as well.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
It does show warming over Asia into the Bering Sea/Aleutians which is where it needs to start. Once you see big low pressures sending heat flux into the Arctic then we can start to believe something may happen. The MJO into P7-8 is when you see the tropics force the lows in the North Pacific.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
12 days out looks horrible. Sigh.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
MJO is amping up and going on the move. This is a catalyst that could reverse the pattern. It won't happen right away but 2-3 weeks for things to get reflect the shift. I'd start believing on some modeled cold by week 3 or 4 so towards the end of the month once it arrives at the dateline.
Some hope!
Some hope!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?
It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Dec-Jan 1984-1985 did a similar strut of the MJO but not quite as quick. December spent most of it in p6 (and hot) like we are now and moved in early Jan. I made a post last week if we were taking a 1984 or 1990 path and it seems 1990 is not happening but 1984 is not a bad compromise, just have to wait it out a little longer.
If this does happen we are liable for a major cold dump tail end of the month and January.
If this does happen we are liable for a major cold dump tail end of the month and January.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?
It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.
And I think that’s a sign of the GFS overestimating the strength of events (PV, troughs, moisture, etc.) rather than being a good indicator
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
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