Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:-30 degrees in Canada at the end of that 12z GFS...sign me up!
I see down to -40 in Canada & down to the Mid-30s below Zero at the USA/Canada Border at the end of the 12z GFS
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
gpsnowman wrote:A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.
Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:gpsnowman wrote:A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.
Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .
Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year
Kind of makes you wonder
There's actually a low above 60 forecast next week here that might be more newsworthy but the weather apps show next week being short lived and more normal beyond that
Last edited by Brent on Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:gpsnowman wrote:A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.
Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .
Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year
Kind of makes you wonder
Last Year had snowstorms in December after the record highs, so maybe we have that again this year?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .
Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year
Kind of makes you wonder
Last Year had snowstorms in December after the record highs, so maybe we have that again this year?
I wish it were that simple
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
First signs that they are picking up on the coming pattern change:
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Haris wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:
Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year
Kind of makes you wonder
Last Year had snowstorms in December after the record highs, so maybe we have that again this year?
I wish it were that simple
Yeah and to be fair the whole lower 48 wasn't torching last December like this year so it is different
But even still I do see signs of a pattern change towards or beyond Christmas
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Hey Storm2k Winter gang, hope everyone is doing well, it's been awhile!!...boring start to winter so far but as previous posters have been discussing, things are looking really promising towards end of month/start of New Year. EPO/WPO tank, MJO 7-8-1 with brutal cold building in Western Canada. What's not to like ???
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1638921600-A0UeAB7uLeMgrb2.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1638921600/1640217600-nfJQCceiL6Q.png
I've been watching this and was planning to post something today but glad you stepped up!
We are now seeing convection on the move in the WPAC. We will want to see convection continue to move from the Maritime Continent/NW Australia out into the WPAC, where it can start to destructively interfere with the +ENSO background state. We'll also want to see the Pacific Jet shift equatorward in time and that combined with an active MJO should set the stage for a cold dump into the Southern Plains. Until then, we have a retracted poleward shifted Pacific Jet and that projects nicely onto the warm pattern we are about to see.
But with change coming to the Pacific, I'm confident for the first time this cool season that we are about to see some legit winter temps unleashed
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Cerlin wrote:-30 degrees in Canada at the end of that 12z GFS...sign me up!
I see down to -40 in Canada & down to the Mid-30s below Zero at the USA/Canada Border at the end of the 12z GFS
Not too long ago on one of the runs of the GFS I saw a -44 in northern Montana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?
That's near Record levels! The highest ever recorded was 1084 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?
That's near Record levels! The highest ever recorded was 1084 MB
If I remember correctly, last week the GFS was predicting a 1060mb high over Colorado with this coming weekend's front. Nope.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?
That's near Record levels! The highest ever recorded was 1084 MB
If I remember correctly, last week the GFS was predicting a 1060mb high over Colorado with this coming weekend's front. Nope.
Yes, there was a 1060 MB high that was predicted over Colorado last week for this weekend, I knew it was very unlikely, but there's always a chance of something like this to really happen.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Something to keep in mind, the Euro's extended MJO forecast is not in a big hurry moving the MJO out of the western Pacific while the GFS ensembles has been too progressive with it.
I'm with wxman57, I don't believe anything the GFS shows past 5-7 days, IMO. At least timewise with a pattern change, if it happens.
I'm with wxman57, I don't believe anything the GFS shows past 5-7 days, IMO. At least timewise with a pattern change, if it happens.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
MJO now in Phase 7
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/MJO-in-Phase-8.gif
EDIT: I meant to say Phase 7, why did I say Phase 8 so much?
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/MJO-in-Phase-8.gif
EDIT: I meant to say Phase 7, why did I say Phase 8 so much?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20
The GFS continues to hint at this every few runs or so….
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20
Is he talking east coast bias speak or east of the rockies including Texas?
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