Texas Winter 2021-2022

[kingwood_tx1999]

What frame is that? I don’t see it yet.

+288 Hours, towards Houston, TX

Lock it in.... it's got to be correct now

Anyone have a graphic?

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[WinterMax]

+288 Hours, towards Houston, TX

Lock it in.... it's got to be correct now

Anyone have a graphic?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Looks more like down around Brownsville, some fantasy snow

[kingwood_tx1999]

Fantasy or not it's still a good sign it's atleast showing something lol

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[Ntxw]

It's way out there still. Don't believe any verbatim GFS OP runs beyond 5 days.

What we can talk about is why are things going to change? The MJO of course. It has moved out of the maritime continent (Indonesia) that's been a staple since October. More importantly it is moving into the *opposite* composites than what has been AND of a good amplitude (strengthening) wave. That tells you a proverbial 'change' because that's the math. Just as important is sinking air, or subsidence will be behind it where the Nina standing wave was.



The Nina, or what's left as it is a weakening event now, will attempt to slow it down as the wave moves east out of the WPAC into cooler waters of the Eastern tropical Pacific. For us that's not too important right now it just needs to get out of the bad phases which it has.

Being the Nina resisting I would expect changes to gradually be slow at first. Models tend to rush these changes.

1984-1985 is a decent analog right now with national weather along with MJO behavior/Arctic/and 2nd year Nina comparisons. You just have to account for the warmer period we are in compared to back then.

[Iceresistance]

+288 Hours, towards Houston, TX

Lock it in.... it's got to be correct now

Anyone have a graphic?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/228-Hours.png

[NDG]

12z GEFS not in agreement with the 12z GFS.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS not in agreement with the 12z GFS.

This has been an issue lately with the models.

[Ntxw]

Interesting the Euro is even faster than GFS at cutting down the warmth. Front comes in 18th.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's called "Garbage in, Garbage out" with the current changes in the teleconnections It's going to take time for the models to get on board with better panel sets.

On a brighter note, we can start getting excited about Jan-Feb and all the possibilities that will come from the changing teleconnections.

[Golf7270]

It's way out there still. Don't believe any verbatim GFS OP runs beyond 5 days.

What we can talk about is why are things going to change? The MJO of course. It has moved out of the maritime continent (Indonesia) that's been a staple since October. More importantly it is moving into the *opposite* composites than what has been AND of a good amplitude (strengthening) wave. That tells you a proverbial 'change' because that's the math. Just as important is sinking air, or subsidence will be behind it where the Nina standing wave was.

https://i.imgur.com/c259pki.png

The Nina, or what's left as it is a weakening event now, will attempt to slow it down as the wave moves east out of the WPAC into cooler waters of the Eastern tropical Pacific. For us that's not too important right now it just needs to get out of the bad phases which it has.

Being the Nina resisting I would expect changes to gradually be slow at first. Models tend to rush these changes.

1984-1985 is a decent analog right now with national weather along with MJO behavior/Arctic/and 2nd year Nina comparisons. You just have to account for the warmer period we are in compared to back then.

Do you think the standing wave has weakened enough or fallen apart to allow the mjo to propagate to get to the colder phases, because 4-6 in winter is very warm? I personally dont like those phases lol

[Ntxw]

Do you think the standing wave has weakened enough or fallen apart to allow the mjo to propagate to get to the colder phases, because 4-6 in winter is very warm? I personally dont like those phases lol

I don't think anything happens in a vacuum. The idea of a 'snap' has merit. Everything works together. With the bad standing wave the convection in the WPAC never occurred and the water there continued to warm and eventually it was going to break out. Now that it has, it can generate the Okhotsk -> Aleutian low and attack the Arctic with heat flux. In winter there are two major drivers, the tropics and the cryosphere.

Maybe this MJO will do the work long term and we get an El Nino next year?

The good news is we are following closer to 1984-1985 than 2011-2012 regarding MJO. 2011-2012 it hovered the bad phases (4-6) December through Feb. When it finally moved to p7 in Feb 2012 it was too late and winter was essentially over by the time we could generate cold.

[Golf7270]

Do you think the standing wave has weakened enough or fallen apart to allow the mjo to propagate to get to the colder phases, because 4-6 in winter is very warm? I personally dont like those phases lol

I don't think anything happens in a vacuum. The idea of a 'snap' has merit. Everything works together. With the bad standing wave the convection in the WPAC never occurred and the water there continued to warm and eventually it was going to break out. Now that it has, it can generate the Okhotsk -> Aleutian low and attack the Arctic with heat flux. In winter there are two major drivers, the tropics and the cryosphere.

Maybe this MJO will do the work long term and we get an El Nino next year?

The good news is we are following closer to 1984-1985 than 2011-2012 regarding MJO. 2011-2012 it hovered the bad phases (4-6) December through Feb. When it finally moved to p7 in Feb 2012 it was too late and winter was essentially over by the time we could generate cold.

8485 winter was intense after new years for a month and a half. I guess its better than 11 -12 winter where it was very warm. Like u said, tropics is very important to possibly get into a colder regime. I mentioned standing wave or easterly winds because if mjo cant make it pass 4-6 in winter, it's a very warm winter for sure. We got a SSW event that winter, but it was focused overseas.

[orangeblood]

Euro Ensembles continue to build Severe Cold in Western Canada right before Christmas...exactly what you want to start seeing in the long range for Arctic Outbreaks, we started a similar conversation at the end of January this year, a few weeks before the record February cold snap. Doesn't mean anything like that will come to fruition, however, this is the first few steps of many!! Also, happens to be the coldest air, relative to average, on the planet! This one has my attention....

[Iceresistance]

Do you think the standing wave has weakened enough or fallen apart to allow the mjo to propagate to get to the colder phases, because 4-6 in winter is very warm? I personally dont like those phases lol

I don't think anything happens in a vacuum. The idea of a 'snap' has merit. Everything works together. With the bad standing wave the convection in the WPAC never occurred and the water there continued to warm and eventually it was going to break out. Now that it has, it can generate the Okhotsk -> Aleutian low and attack the Arctic with heat flux. In winter there are two major drivers, the tropics and the cryosphere.

Maybe this MJO will do the work long term and we get an El Nino next year?

The good news is we are following closer to 1984-1985 than 2011-2012 regarding MJO. 2011-2012 it hovered the bad phases (4-6) December through Feb. When it finally moved to p7 in Feb 2012 it was too late and winter was essentially over by the time we could generate cold.

2011-2012 was too late for the favorable phases, but 1984-1985 did it just as we thought was a goner.

[Golf7270]

Euro Ensembles continue to build Severe Cold in Western Canada right before Christmas...exactly what you want to start seeing in the long range for Arctic Outbreaks, we started a similar conversation at the end of January this year, a few weeks before the record February cold snap. Doesn't mean anything like that will come to fruition, however, this is the first few steps of many!! Also, happens to be the coldest air, relative to average, on the planet! This one has my attention....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1639051200/1640304000-hpZ2VSsv3g4.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1639051200/1640304000-QLN15sHLjAY.png

I think the key is to get the epo negative and take our chances. And the progression of the mjo.

[orangeblood]

Euro Ensembles continue to build Severe Cold in Western Canada right before Christmas...exactly what you want to start seeing in the long range for Arctic Outbreaks, we started a similar conversation at the end of January this year, a few weeks before the record February cold snap. Doesn't mean anything like that will come to fruition, however, this is the first few steps of many!! Also, happens to be the coldest air, relative to average, on the planet! This one has my attention....


I think the key is to get the epo negative and take our chances. And the progression of the mjo.

Every Tele Index Mean is now forecast to go negative around Dec. 20th +/-

[Iceresistance]

Euro Ensembles continue to build Severe Cold in Western Canada right before Christmas...exactly what you want to start seeing in the long range for Arctic Outbreaks, we started a similar conversation at the end of January this year, a few weeks before the record February cold snap. Doesn't mean anything like that will come to fruition, however, this is the first few steps of many!! Also, happens to be the coldest air, relative to average, on the planet! This one has my attention....


I think the key is to get the epo negative and take our chances. And the progression of the mjo.

Every Tele Index Mean is now forecast to go negative around Dec. 20th +/-

Could this be similar to what happened in February 2021? When almost all major Teleconnections went Negative?

[rwfromkansas]

Forecast high of 87 today and 89 tomorrow...this is not right

I feel your pain Rgv20. My A/C has been on since last March. We need a big cold snap to cool the GOM.

Our A/C has been in the battle zone most of this fall into December. It's on a/c during the day, then switched to heat at night. We need it to get cold enough to just stay on heat. Lol.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is definitely discouraging, with all that cold air moving south across Texas. Fortunately, the GFS doesn't have a clue that far out. I suspect it'll end up being like this weekend's front. At least, I hope so.

[rwfromkansas]

I've alerted the School Officials about this, they will make an announcement about that Next Wednesday if this trend continues.

The thing with JB is he may be referring to his area specifically. Without more info, it's hard to know how wide he's casting that net.

Here are great MJO temp composites of what you typically see during this time of year....as you can see 8-1-2 is prime for most widespread cold!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

Nevermind on my original comment here. I was reading the wrong side of the chart. Oops.

Anyway, it's exciting to finally see some changes, though I am cautious.

I wish it would snow before my trip to Kansas for my family's Christmas on the 18th.

Unfortunately, we don't often have much luck with the timing being right before we get there. Maybe we will see some stuff later when we are in Abilene with my wife's family over the holiday itself.