Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

We've seen some big tornado outbreaks the last quarter of this year. The -PDO/dragging Nina has proven itself. I fear the spring will be a huge tornado season for all of us.

Yup, I was thinking the same thing…

Spring 2020 & 2021 Storm Seasons did not perform very well, but every time something like this is happening, the sky will wake up again with a vengeance in the near future.

But when is the question . . .

[Texas Snowman]

Saw this, don’t know if it is accurate or not. But if so, just wow…

@TornadoStudy — 283mph gate to gate velocity at 5,000 feet above the ground in MO near Caruthersville, making this the strongest tornadic gate to gate couplet in Doppler radar history. Previous was a tie between Greensburg KS 2007 EF5 and Tuscaloosa AL 2011 EF4 at 280mph. So far hit 3 states.

[Texas Snowman]

Lots of bare slab photos from the Mayfield, Kentucky area…

[Iceresistance]

When was the last time an EF-5 Tornado struck in December?

[Brent]

When was the last time an EF-5 Tornado struck in December?

1950s I believe. 1957 in Illinois and 1953 Vicksburg (this one is disputed apparently)

I'm wondering how many people died especially at the factory in Mayfield

[Texas Snowman]

Early casualty numbers are always fluid, but the Kentucky governor’s assessment a few moments ago is indeed sobering…

@reenaroy — From Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear: Death toll will be over 70, could exceed 100 by end of day. He’s calling this the deadliest tornado system to hit the state

[cheezyWXguy]

Saw this, don’t know if it is accurate or not. But if so, just wow…

@TornadoStudy — 283mph gate to gate velocity at 5,000 feet above the ground in MO near Caruthersville, making this the strongest tornadic gate to gate couplet in Doppler radar history. Previous was a tie between Greensburg KS 2007 EF5 and Tuscaloosa AL 2011 EF4 at 280mph. So far hit 3 states.

I saw that. There was a reply that the frame shown is subject to a “dealiasing error”, but other more reliable frames show values even higher than that, closer to 300mph gate to gate. If this isn’t an ef5, I’m wondering what it will take to ever get one again.

[Texas Snowman]

@GarrettWKYT — Beshear: “I’m now certain [the death toll] is north of 70. It may in fact end up exceeding 100 before the day is done.”

[Ntxw]

It looks like the idea the Euro had a few days ago might end up being correct. We're now looking at a couple of fronts coming through. 18th and then 20thish. What the models had long range was the fronts would hold up and not make it south but they are now trending earlier that the boundaries will pass.

[Texas Snowman]

Video and photos from Mayfield—and there were MANY more areas hit—looks like Joplin.

Just gut wrenching destruction and loss of life.

Texted a friend in Bowling Green and he said they are ok, but also said that they know of fatalities in their circle of friends.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS indicates that my cold air deflector is working. No sub-freezing temps in DFW and no snow in TX.

[kingwood_tx1999]

12Z GFS indicates that my cold air deflector is working. No sub-freezing temps in DFW and no snow in TX.

Figures...I hate even looking at this board xuz I know you will ruin our hopes lol

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Texas Snowman]

@MJVentrice — The Madden Julian Oscillation will begin to destructively interfering with the La Nina standing wave, as we're seeing a robust shift in the intraseasonal tropical state to Western Hemispheric forcing (black dashed contours). This will inevitably lead to some changes.

[NDG]

12z GFS is an example of how inconsistent it has been during the last couple of days in the 7-14 day range, I rather rely more on the GEFS.
Ensembles still show the PNA staying negative, any cold air coming down will be shallow down the plains and hugging the Rockies. I am sure central and western TX will cool down in the 9-15 day range but will have a tough time heading east with the PNA staying negative.

[Ntxw]

@MJVentrice — The Madden Julian Oscillation will begin to destructively interfering with the La Nina standing wave, as we're seeing a robust shift in the intraseasonal tropical state to Western Hemispheric forcing (black dashed contours). This will inevitably lead to some changes.

It's very slow moving too. Whatever pattern sets in will have time to amplify. At first no change was expected until after the Christmas holiday but it does look like we get fronts before then.

In Texas I'd take a -PNA over a +PNA any day which is why McFarland states in his paper a -PNA continental trough is an ingredient. +PNA just shunts everything to our east. Our February outbreak came with a big -PNA.

2021 0.37 -2.15 -1.50 -0.29 -0.13 0.56 0.33 -0.24 -0.11 -0.63 0.61

[Ntxw]

Check out the trend for the solstice from the GEFs. It could poof still since 240 hours but hey the cold is showing up at least and trending better.

[Texas Snowman]

As bad as Mayfield, Kentucky looks, Dawson Springs looks even worse.

Looks like total devastation reminiscent of Homestead, Florida after Andrew.

[ElectricStorm]

As bad as Mayfield, Kentucky looks, Dawson Springs looks even worse.

Looks like total devastation reminiscent of Homestead, Florida after Andrew.

Here's Dawson Springs. Looks pretty much just as bad as Mayfield.
https://twitter.com/JMichaelsNews/statu ... 1343336454

[Iceresistance]

The Tornado derailed a train & has thrown several train cars a good distance from the railroad, no sign of the tracks torn up.

[Iceresistance]

11 Confirmed dead in Bowling Green . . .