Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

I knew things were going to turn bad svr wx wise for the target area as soon as that Rockwall cell went from nothing to dumping quarter inch hail on us yesterday afternoon. It literally went from partly cloudy to dumping hail in a matter of minutes. Sad to see that was a harbinger of what was to come.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS wants a widespread ice storm for Texas in 8 days. Fun! (not)

[cheezyWXguy]

The Tornado derailed a train & has thrown several train cars a good distance from the railroad, no sign of the tracks torn up.

Saw that. Will have to see what the survey says but the picture looks like ground scouring is present to me

[AustinTXResident]

18z GFS wants a widespread ice storm for Texas in 8 days. Fun! (not)

With the forecast temperatures of 30° or higher, that's unlikely.

[Brent]

It's there again mostly between OKC and Wichita Falls

Most of DFW too warm

CMC keeps it further south where it's all rain. Oklahoma mostly dry

I should note the TV forecasts earlier here were very cold for next weekend not quite winter storm but yeah compared to lately for sure

[Cpv17]

It's there again mostly between OKC and Wichita Falls

Most of DFW too warm

CMC keeps it further south where it's all rain. Oklahoma mostly dry

I should note the TV forecasts earlier here were very cold for next weekend not quite winter storm but yeah compared to lately for sure

Still doesn’t look too great especially for my area but I’ll admit it’s looking a lot better than it was for sure.

[Golf7270]

I still feel it will take a while before we have a noticable colder pattern and models fully adjust

[Ralph's Weather]

By far the coldest night of the season so far. Freeze warning in East Texas should have included another row of counties south. Some mid and even low 20s north of I-20.

[Iceresistance]

NWS Norman hinting Wintry Mix across most of Oklahoma next Weekend

[Iceresistance]

GFS is still showing an Ice Storm for Western Texas

[gpsnowman]

DFW officially got to freezing."Bout time.

[Iceresistance]

The models are now having a very difficult time with the possible December Winter Weather because the MJO is now expected to Retrograde back to Phase 6 from Phase 7.

[kingwood_tx1999]

The models are now having a very difficult time with the possible December Winter Weather because the MJO is now expected to Retrograde back to Phase 6 from Phase 7.

Wtf?!?! So it's not going to get cold anymore?

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[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 27 IMBY. Uh, didn’t expect that so it was still on a/c. Brrr.

I am seeing my family for Christmas next weekend in Kansas. So, I hope Saturday is clear.

Though, we will see if the pattern even really shifts.

[TropicalTundra]

Got down to 27 IMBY. Uh, didn’t expect that so it was still on a/c. Brrr.

I am seeing my family for Christmas next weekend in Kansas. So, I hope Saturday is clear.

Though, we will see if the pattern even really shifts.

It got down to 27 degrees here in Temple as well. It's finally nice to feel some arctic air considering last week we had a day of 70's for LOWS. Even 70 degrees for lows in summer here is lucky.

[harp]

Larry Cosgrove still thinks the cold is coming and says the MJO is not always a good forecast tool.

[Brent]

NWS Norman hinting Wintry Mix across most of Oklahoma next Weekend

Rain/snow mix here Saturday morning now from the NWS

About half of the GEFS
solutions are also hinting at wintry precipitation for late Friday
night into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Sunday
but atmospheric thickness appears to be a little too high for any
significant wintry precip. With that said, it is reasonable that a
brief period of light wintry precip including some minor icing
could occur late Saturday night into Sunday given temperatures
dipping into the upper 20s for some.

[Iceresistance]

The models are now having a very difficult time with the possible December Winter Weather because the MJO is now expected to Retrograde back to Phase 6 from Phase 7.

Wtf?!?! So it's not going to get cold anymore?

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I don't know, I've never seen anything like this before!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif

[Ntxw]

The models are now having a very difficult time with the possible December Winter Weather because the MJO is now expected to Retrograde back to Phase 6 from Phase 7.

Wtf?!?! So it's not going to get cold anymore?

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I don't know, I've never seen anything like this before!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif

The MJO isn't actually 'looping' back. The wave is continuing across the Pacific, the look is actually from the WPAC tropical cyclone activity moving west causing the confusion on the RMM.

[orangeblood]

Wtf?!?! So it's not going to get cold anymore?

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I don't know, I've never seen anything like this before!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif

The MJO isn't actually 'looping' back. The wave is continuing across the Pacific, the look is actually from the WPAC tropical cyclone activity moving west causing the confusion on the RMM.

https://i.imgur.com/92QfG1B.png

Yeah, doesn’t look like anything to be too concerned about….Dec 20th +/- is when the Severe Cold should really start building in Western Canada with a tanking EPO and WPO. Then we wait for a delivery mechanism into our part of the country - root for a swing into Phase 8 to really get this party started