SPAC: RUBY - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

93P INVEST 211207 1200 7.5S 155.0E SHEM 15 0

[InfernoFlameCat]

This guy could reach major H status. It will be Interesting to see how it plays out
Gfs actually has this at 945mb at peak intensity 126 hours out as of 18z.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS continues to make this a major. Could be a dangerous one for some of those islands down there. Might end up with twin majors between this and 95W, just in different hemispheres.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS continues to make this a major. Could be a dangerous one for some of those islands down there. Might end up with twin majors between this and 95W, just in different hemispheres.

GFS has a long history of not exactly delivering in the medium range when it comes to genesis here or any basin with a monsoon trough really.

[WAcyclone]

The current BoM forecast brings this system up to Category 3 (60 kt) before traversing the whole island of New Caledonia.

[ChrisH-UK]

Invest 93P is starting to form up at the lower levels. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get named soon, it is starting to coalesce and has a lot of convective development around it.

Source Himawari-8 CIRA Visible Albedo - https://col.st/9xARF

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think this is a tc for sure now

[Hurricane2021]

JTWC upgraded 93P to TS status
35 kt 1001 hPa
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0322.gif

[ElectricStorm]

75kt peak on the first JTWC advisory.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

It's not officially a cyclone until BoM upgrades it. They require TS winds in 3 quadrants for an upgrade.

[Subtrop]

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 1:15 pm EST on Sunday 12 December 2021

At 1 pm AEST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Ruby (Category 1) with central pressure
997 hPa was located near latitude 14.3 south longitude 157.3 east, which is
about 1150 km northeast of Mackay and 1310 km northwest of Noumea, is moving
south at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Ruby is currently moving in a general southwards direction,
though is forecast to adopt a track towards the southeast and intensify to a
category 2 system as it moves towards New Caledonia during Monday and into
Tuesday. This system will have no direct impact on the Australian mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm AEST Sunday.

[ChrisH-UK]

Source - https://col.st/9FKFp

[aspen]

Ruby is quickly developing an inner core, and has established a smooth CDO over the last several hours. It will probably reach hurricane intensity later today if it isn’t already one now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ruby is quickly developing an inner core, and has established a smooth CDO over the last several hours. It will probably reach hurricane intensity later today if it isn’t already one now.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2022sh03/amsusr89/2022sh03_amsusr89_202112121403.gif

Wow. Then again these tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere do get their act together rather fast.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Ruby

Source Himawari-8 Green Band - https://col.st/kdmZ2

[Sciencerocks]