Texas Winter 2021-2022

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Christmas week is looking, at worst, normal temps.

I’ll take 50s/low 60s for highs and cold at night. Better than upper 60s and 70s/80s. With that said, there’s a possibility we could see some 30s and 40s in the afternoon if things materialize like we have seen off and on for a few days.

[Ntxw]

I don't know, I've never seen anything like this before!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/What-is-this.gif

The MJO isn't actually 'looping' back. The wave is continuing across the Pacific, the look is actually from the WPAC tropical cyclone activity moving west causing the confusion on the RMM.

https://i.imgur.com/92QfG1B.png

Yeah, doesn’t look like anything to be too concerned about….Dec 20th +/- is when the Severe Cold should really start building in Western Canada with a tanking EPO and WPO. Then we wait for a delivery mechanism into our part of the country - root for a swing into Phase 8 to really get this party started

The upper pattern isn't great yet even 20th-25th. What's driving these fronts is the cold powering through with the slight opening. Remember long term guidance was torching through Christmas but little by little we are chipping away with various fronts now popping up during that week! Make bets surface cold wins.

[orangeblood]

The MJO isn't actually 'looping' back. The wave is continuing across the Pacific, the look is actually from the WPAC tropical cyclone activity moving west causing the confusion on the RMM.

https://i.imgur.com/92QfG1B.png

Yeah, doesn’t look like anything to be too concerned about….Dec 20th +/- is when the Severe Cold should really start building in Western Canada with a tanking EPO and WPO. Then we wait for a delivery mechanism into our part of the country - root for a swing into Phase 8 to really get this party started

The upper pattern isn't great yet even 20th-25th. What's driving these fronts is the cold powering through with the slight opening. Remember long term guidance was torching through Christmas but little by little we are chipping away with various fronts now popping up during that week! Make bets surface cold wins.

The 1-2 punch of WPO/EPO should really press this cold, will be difficult to hold back even if we loop around slowly in Phase 7

[Brent]

The GEFS has definitely trending colder for the weekend and early next week

[Ntxw]

Yeah, doesn’t look like anything to be too concerned about….Dec 20th +/- is when the Severe Cold should really start building in Western Canada with a tanking EPO and WPO. Then we wait for a delivery mechanism into our part of the country - root for a swing into Phase 8 to really get this party started

The upper pattern isn't great yet even 20th-25th. What's driving these fronts is the cold powering through with the slight opening. Remember long term guidance was torching through Christmas but little by little we are chipping away with various fronts now popping up during that week! Make bets surface cold wins.

The 1-2 punch of WPO/EPO should really press this cold, will be difficult to hold back even if we loop around slowly in Phase 7

You also have a retrograding -NAO. I think we are close to almost seeing the fruits of the discussion coming into view.

The biggest difference now from 2011 is there is actually cold air in Canada!

[Cpv17]

You know there’s not much to talk about when you come check on this board and see no one has posted anything in 7 hours lol

[Ntxw]

Not much to talk about for next 7 days. Absolute US torch. It has arrived!

But we may have a big severe weather outbreak that may make headlines mid to late week in the upper midwest.

[Cpv17]

Not much to talk about for next 7 days. Absolute US torch. It has arrived!

But we may have a big severe weather outbreak that may make headlines mid to late week in the upper midwest.

Yikes! Not that again

[Ntxw]

Not much to talk about for next 7 days. Absolute US torch. It has arrived!

But we may have a big severe weather outbreak that may make headlines mid to late week in the upper midwest.

Yikes! Not that again

All time December record heat from Kansas City to Wisconsin with a deep sub 980mb low very similar to what just happened in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin all in crosshairs of a potential outbreak.

[Brent]

There is some good news from Kentucky tonight apparently some of the feared dead at the factory in Mayfield were found safe somewhere else. Guess they got out or something before it hit and with communication down I'm sure probably couldnt call anyone. Hopefully that holds the death toll down a little but it's still ugly for sure. Maybe Wednesdays setup won't be as bad

[Cpv17]

There is some good news from Kentucky tonight apparently some of the feared dead at the factory in Mayfield were found safe somewhere else. Guess they got out or something before it hit and with communication down I'm sure probably couldnt call anyone. Hopefully that holds the death toll down a little but it's still ugly for sure. Maybe Wednesdays setup won't be as bad

It looked like an atomic bomb was set off. I haven’t seen damage that bad since Joplin. Mind blowing. I wonder when we’ll find out if it was an EF5 or not. Don’t see how it wouldn’t be.

[Brent]

There is some good news from Kentucky tonight apparently some of the feared dead at the factory in Mayfield were found safe somewhere else. Guess they got out or something before it hit and with communication down I'm sure probably couldnt call anyone. Hopefully that holds the death toll down a little but it's still ugly for sure. Maybe Wednesdays setup won't be as bad

It looked like an atomic bomb was set off. I haven’t seen damage that bad since Joplin. Mind blowing. I wonder when we’ll find out if it was an EF5 or not. Don’t see how it wouldn’t be.

It's definitely possible but it's so hard to get an EF5 rating nowadays(they are extremely picky about how the structures were built). I definitely expect a high end 4 at least though

Either way I'm still amazed it was apparently one big long track tornado(beating the tristate tornado if it holds) and also the scope of how bad it is. There's so many other places besides Mayfield in bad shape. That reminds me more of April 27th 2011 tbh

[ElectricStorm]

There is some good news from Kentucky tonight apparently some of the feared dead at the factory in Mayfield were found safe somewhere else. Guess they got out or something before it hit and with communication down I'm sure probably couldnt call anyone. Hopefully that holds the death toll down a little but it's still ugly for sure. Maybe Wednesdays setup won't be as bad

It looked like an atomic bomb was set off. I haven’t seen damage that bad since Joplin. Mind blowing. I wonder when we’ll find out if it was an EF5 or not. Don’t see how it wouldn’t be.

It's definitely possible but it's so hard to get an EF5 rating nowadays(they are extremely picky about how the structures were built). I definitely expect a high end 4 at least though

Either way I'm still amazed it was apparently one big long track tornado(beating the tristate tornado if it holds) and also the scope of how bad it is. There's so many other places besides Mayfield in bad shape. That reminds me more of April 27th 2011 tbh

I'll be shocked if it's not an EF5. But the way some of these storms have been rated since 2013, it's not guaranteed. That's not the NWS's problem though, that's the EF scale's problem. It already need to be look at and revised, but if this gets rated less than EF5 then there really needs to be some changes to the scale. A good start would be adding some more EF5 DI's, as there's really not a whole lot of them. There's no way a storm this strong should be rated less than 200mph+.

[Brent]

It looked like an atomic bomb was set off. I haven’t seen damage that bad since Joplin. Mind blowing. I wonder when we’ll find out if it was an EF5 or not. Don’t see how it wouldn’t be.

It's definitely possible but it's so hard to get an EF5 rating nowadays(they are extremely picky about how the structures were built). I definitely expect a high end 4 at least though

Either way I'm still amazed it was apparently one big long track tornado(beating the tristate tornado if it holds) and also the scope of how bad it is. There's so many other places besides Mayfield in bad shape. That reminds me more of April 27th 2011 tbh

I'll be shocked if it's not an EF5. But the way some of these storms have been rated since 2013, it's not guaranteed. That's not the NWS's problem though, that's the EF scale's problem. It already need to be look at and revised, but if this gets rated less than EF5 then there really needs to be some changes to the scale. A good start would be adding some more EF5 DI's, as there's really not a whole lot of them. There's no way a storm this strong should be rated less than 200mph+.

Yeah I'm just a skeptic a bit because I was convinced in 2011 Tuscaloosa would be an EF5 and it missed by 2 mph

I agree the scale needs to be reworked though. I mean El Reno having 300 mph winds on radar but EF3 there has to be a better middle ground

[ElectricStorm]

Also, here is the map for all the tracks and DI's. Not really anything from the quad state cell on here yet, but most of the other ones are. The map updates as the NWS updates their surveys. You can click on each point to get the exact DI and estimated wind speed.
https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/StormDamage/DamageViewer/

[Cpv17]

The SPC doesn’t seem too concerned about the next possible outbreak. They’re saying instability will be on the weak side to keep it in check.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow
Unbelievable that thing was huge. Best video I've seen of the actual storm so far. Especially the lighting flash around 5 seconds in.
https://twitter.com/WX_ManMike/status/1 ... 9972796420

[AustinTXResident]

December 1-12, 2021, was the warmest first 12 days of December on record at Austin Camp Mabry. The cool weather on Sunday did not make much difference.

Here are the National Weather Service's temperature forecasts for Austin Camp Mabry for the next 7 days (Dec. 13-19):

64...44...Monday
78...58...Tuesday
80...66...Wednesday
79...68...Thursday
79...63...Friday
57...51...Saturday
54...42...Sunday

If these forecasts are accurate, Dec 1-19, 2021, will be the warmest first 19 days of December on record with an average temperature of 63.8°. Second place will be 1933 & 2012, when the average temperature was 62.8°.

One could extend this further by using the GFS deterministic temperature forecasts for Dec 20-22 and the GFS ensemble mean temperature forecasts for Dec 23-27. But nothing much changes: the first 27 days of Dec 2021 would be the warmest first 27 days of Dec on record.

[wxman57]

It appears that the GFS' long-range snow event for TX was pure fantasy. It just cannot handle this pattern beyond 5-7 days.

[Cerlin]

Now hold on! The GEFS does have 3 or so members with some snow storm for the central plains by a week from today. I can still hold out hope…right?