Quad State / Mayfield Kentucky Tornado Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

As of this time of posting, the deadly tornado that leveled Mayfield along other small towns is not rated. If a mod would kindly make a poll on whether the tornado was EF3, 4, or 5, that would be great. I personally think it was an EF5 due to widespread destruction and bare slabs along with complete destruction of a 5 story factory.

[ElectricStorm]

As of this time of posting, the deadly tornado that leveled Mayfield along other small towns is not rated. If a mod would kindly make a poll on whether the tornado was EF3, 4, or 5, that would be great. I personally think it was an EF5 due to widespread destruction and bare slabs along with complete destruction of a 5 story factory.

This is near Bremen from the long tracker. Honestly this seals the deal for me. There's always a chance the house wasn't built solid enough but ripping up a concrete foundation and driveway is just ridiculous. This is an EF5 in my book.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Oakhurst_Wx/ ... 8864546819

[cheezyWXguy]

I think it will be an ef5. Several pictures I’ve seen suggest ground scouring, some of which are in areas where the radar velocities weren’t at peak. Other pictures show foundations wiped clean. As a weather weenie who is hundreds of miles away, my opinion doesn’t mean a whole lot, but the damage I’ve seen so far looks similar to Joplin, and worse than Bassfield last year.

[FireRat]

I just saw the drone footage from Dawson Springs...

EF-5.
After 3125 days, the EF-5 drought may have ended. Who would've thought it would happen in December. This destruction is perhaps going to make this tornado a top-ten event, both in strength and cost.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Preliminary estimate for this tornado is EF3.

[ElectricStorm]

Preliminary estimate for this tornado is EF3.

Yeah they sent that out last night. That's definitely not from the worst damage areas though. They said they are bringing in extra experts starting tomorrow to get it all sorted out. My guess is this will take several weeks to get a final rating and track all sorted out.

I think the damage near Bremen will be the highest rated but I could be wrong.

[tolakram]

Latest NWS graphic.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Not making this a poll, but discussion is welcome.

[Iceresistance]

The Mayfield tornado appears to have estimated wind speeds of between 165–206 mph

[FireRat]

It can sometimes be tough to discern between EF4 and EF5 damage. While browsing around I came across this image below...



That's actually a picture taken from a factory in Van Wert, Ohio that got leveled by an F4 tornado during the November 10 2002 tornado outbreak. It looks eerily similar to the destruction of the candle factory from Mayfield.

[ElectricStorm]

Quad state track in KY has been added to the map, along with a few damage points near Mayfield, but not much. Highest so far is mid-EF3.
https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/StormDamage/DamageViewer/

[ElectricStorm]

Potential EF5 DI near Princeton, KY
https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonStormRi ... 9690340358

Key word is "potential" but either way that's unreal

 https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/1470855739690340358

[InfernoFlameCat]

Potential EF5 DI near Princeton, KY
https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonStormRi ... 9690340358

Key word is "potential" but either way that's unreal

That’s absurd. Then again, the Chapman tornado was rated ef4 even though it did something similar, aka snapped a well anchored home off the slab and cracked the slab in the process

[Iceresistance]

Potential EF5 DI near Princeton, KY
https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonStormRi ... 9690340358

Key word is "potential" but either way that's unreal

That’s absurd. Then again, the Chapman tornado was rated ef4 even though it did something similar, aka snapped a well anchored home off the slab and cracked the slab in the process

The Chapman, KS tornado was from a Stationary Supercell, making EF-5 Damage very difficult since the consistent winds weakened the Home & Slab over time, when this situation pops up, it makes the EF-5 rating even harder because the damage can be indistinguishable from a EF-5 Tornado moving at 30-50 mph to an EF-3/EF-4 moving very slowly.

[ElectricStorm]

Mayfield tornado now a prelim EF4/190mph. Good chance of an upgrade imo

[Iceresistance]

Mayfield tornado now a prelim EF4/190mph. Good chance of an upgrade imo

It's currently at >190 mph/ EF4+, this WILL become the EF-5 Tornado, the one what WILL break the EF-5 Drought.

[ElectricStorm]

Mayfield tornado now a prelim EF4/190mph. Good chance of an upgrade imo

It's currently at >190 mph/ EF4+, this WILL become the EF-5 Tornado, the one what WILL break the EF-5 Drought.

It's not certain that it will be an EF5. But I think it will be

[Iceresistance]

Mayfield tornado now a prelim EF4/190mph. Good chance of an upgrade imo

It's currently at >190 mph/ EF4+, this WILL become the EF-5 Tornado, the one what WILL break the EF-5 Drought.

It's not certain that it will be an EF5. But I think it will be

The Soso, Mississippi EF-4 in April 2020 got really close to EF-5 with 195 mph winds.

[cheezyWXguy]

The dearth of ef5s since 2013 seems so…artificially constructed. Almost every year since then has featured a tornado that just misses the mark because it didn’t hit a well enough constructed building.

2014 - Villonia, AR
2015 - Rochelle, IL
2016 - Sulphur, OK and Chapman, KS
2017 - Dimmitt, TX (questionable, but I recall >200mph winds being observed on radar)
2018 - none
2019 - none
2020 - Bassfield, MS