Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#641 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:38 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I’m still not totally giving up hope yet. We will have cold air as a source region in Canada and teleconnections are still largely forecasted to be negative from next week through January. I’d like the PNA to be more neutral but I don’t think we’re in a horrible spot. Unless I’m wrong, but I think a negative EPO mixed with a negative NAO should be a good thing for us.


February 2021 had a -PNA & the extreme cold STILL came to Texas with the -NAO, -AO, & -EPO


Correct. Why did it still work out? Blocking on both sides of the arctic. Alaska and Greenland and over the top. Pushed the PV to the US/Canada border. As the upper level lows ran down towards Texas, (they had no other path to take) they pulled down air from the PV towards the gulf coast. Wasn't a massive HP which brought down the cold.


It was not JUST the massive HP, there were 1060 MB HP's in the Arctic that helped to push it down. (And it lead to Below-Zero Temperatures)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#642 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:48 am

Seriously 12z GFS? Now you want to make Heat Miser happy now?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#643 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:50 am

Iceresistance wrote:Seriously 12z GFS? Now you want to make Heat Miser happy now?


Looks way too cold, to me. Colder than yesterday's 12Z.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#644 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:51 am

What's it showing

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#645 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:55 am

kingwood_tx1999 wrote:What's it showing

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Highs in Houston Christmas Day only in the lower 70s vs. near 80.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#646 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:05 pm

kingwood_tx1999 wrote:Can we just move to spring if it's going to stay like this?

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I love cold and look forward to winter every year but I’m with you this, this year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#647 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:34 pm

What really suck is I have to keep pulling up all the Christmas decorations in the yard to keep mowing lol..I figured it would've died by now ..but with this weather it just keeps growing

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#648 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:12 pm

You all see the insane wind in Kansas and Colorado? 107 mph gust in southeast CO!

As for the pattern change, it's crazy how you can see the mood change with the whims of the models and the inevitable delays of cold. You see the posts decline when models aren't showing cold also.

It does tend to take a long time for the pattern to change, so it isn't surprising me that it is holding firm longer than it looked like last week. I just hope it changes in January.

If not by mid-January, then I will start to worry. For now, not too upset since I'm used to not getting snow at Christmas anyway. What's another year. There was one year we drove up for my family holiday event and had a blizzard with a foot of snow (our old Prius was literally pushing snow into the driveway, and we had to stop on the interstate to de-ice numerous times because the snow was that heavy and plows couldn't even keep up). But, normally it's mild and dry. Cold and snowy is actually the exception.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#649 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:41 pm

I will say one thing... If we ever get cold and get a storm to go with this wind.... :double: this has been a consistent theme for weeks every storm has been super windy
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#650 Postby NDG » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:08 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I’m still not totally giving up hope yet. We will have cold air as a source region in Canada and teleconnections are still largely forecasted to be negative from next week through January. I’d like the PNA to be more neutral but I don’t think we’re in a horrible spot. Unless I’m wrong, but I think a negative EPO mixed with a negative NAO should be a good thing for us.


February 2021 had a -PNA & the extreme cold STILL came to Texas with the -NAO, -AO, & -EPO


The NAO was a western based -NAO, not a true Greenland Block which the Arctic air would had slid more to the east.
The pattern protected FL from getting into that Arctic airmass.

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#651 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:18 pm

Do y'all see the dust storm behind the severe weather system? wow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#652 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:43 pm

The only hope I see for cold weather is the last frame of the 12Z CFS... What a bummer. We need something to break this pattern.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#653 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:06 pm

Absolutely insane wind storm here right now, never seen anything like this. Been on midnight shifts for the last week and between today and last Friday it's been pretty tiring (I've been issuing the high wind watches and warnings for my area). Gonna be treating myself to good food tomorrow, a movie, and then a relaxing haircut on Saturday with a head massage and hot shave.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#654 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:56 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Absolutely insane wind storm here right now, never seen anything like this. Been on midnight shifts for the last week and between today and last Friday it's been pretty tiring (I've been issuing the high wind watches and warnings for my area). Gonna be treating myself to good food tomorrow, a movie, and then a relaxing haircut on Saturday with a head massage and hot shave.


100 mph gust near where I grew up in KS. Crazy. Never seen anything like it in my life there, just when we lived in West Texas, but this is much worse.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#655 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:03 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Absolutely insane wind storm here right now, never seen anything like this. Been on midnight shifts for the last week and between today and last Friday it's been pretty tiring (I've been issuing the high wind watches and warnings for my area). Gonna be treating myself to good food tomorrow, a movie, and then a relaxing haircut on Saturday with a head massage and hot shave.


I remember a storm in the 1980s. It was during the spring, I think. The low was over Oklahoma and we had west wind to 50 kts here in Houston. Stronger wind to our north. Major dust storm in Texas. Maybe 1983? Long time ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#656 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:04 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Absolutely insane wind storm here right now, never seen anything like this. Been on midnight shifts for the last week and between today and last Friday it's been pretty tiring (I've been issuing the high wind watches and warnings for my area). Gonna be treating myself to good food tomorrow, a movie, and then a relaxing haircut on Saturday with a head massage and hot shave.


100 mph gust near where I grew up in KS. Crazy. Never seen anything like it in my life there, just when we lived in West Texas, but this is much worse.


Yeah apparently strongest wind gust in Dodge City history
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#657 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Absolutely insane wind storm here right now, never seen anything like this. Been on midnight shifts for the last week and between today and last Friday it's been pretty tiring (I've been issuing the high wind watches and warnings for my area). Gonna be treating myself to good food tomorrow, a movie, and then a relaxing haircut on Saturday with a head massage and hot shave.


I remember a storm in the 1980s. It was during the spring, I think. The low was over Oklahoma and we had west wind to 50 kts here in Houston. Stronger wind to our north. Major dust storm in Texas. Maybe 1983? Long time ago.


I know a Custodian (Basically a Janitor, except she monitors the school for damage & unruly students) that she said that there was a very bad Dust Storm in Shawnee, OK in the 1970s.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#658 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:56 pm

70° and 70% humidity. Is this spring?
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Re: RE: Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#659 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:59 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:70° and 70% humidity. Is this spring?
Might as well be spring..sure as hell isn't winter

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#660 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:10 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:70° and 70% humidity. Is this spring?


I was saying earlier it felt like a tornado day in April or May.. :spam:
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