WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Any possible direct SAR or SMAP pass before landfall?

[Hayabusa]

Just imagine if it gets to +eye while maintaining that -88C cloud

2021DEC15 224000 6.1 944 117 6.1 6.3 7.7 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -20.47 -88.61 EYE -99 IR 38.8 9.61 -127.95 ARCHER HIM-8 18.6

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 DEC 2021 Time : 224000 UTC
Lat : 9:36:35 N Lon : 127:56:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 944mb / 117kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -20.5C Cloud Region Temp : -88.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

[zzh]

That is a perfect pinhole eye. wow. This puts Eta to shame!

"Perfect pinhole eye"? This thing doesn't even have a single pixel of wmg. Eta had a lot wmg pixels

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1471257801049710596

[aspen]

130-135 kt seems like a good bet for right now. I keep thinking back to Eta and how its huge CDG CDO was that cold mainly to the cool late autumn tropopause. If Rai can maintain >+10C eye temps for a few hours, it will probably be worthy of 145-150 kt.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That is a perfect pinhole eye. wow. This puts Eta to shame!

"Perfect pinhole eye"? This thing doesn't even have a single pixel of wmg. Eta had a lot wmg pixels

shape wise.

[Hayabusa]

Any possible direct SAR or SMAP pass before landfall?

SMAP still has not performed a pass on Rai ever since it formed, hopefully it does before Rai makes landfall.

[dexterlabio]

Last night I was thinking Rai could be more of a Phanfone 2019 repeat. I did not expect this to be a Bopha 2012 redux. it's got only six hours from now to get that pinhole eye warmer while maintaining the extremely cold cloud tops, we might be looking at another intense Cat5 by then...

[Hayabusa]

TXPQ25 KNES 160011
TCSWNP

A. 28W (RAI)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 9.6N

D. 127.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN CDG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 7.0. FOR
AN EYE THAT IS OW AND SURROUNDED BY CDG, THE EADJ IS +0.5, MAKING THE
DT 7.5. THE MET IS 6.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
6 HOUR AVERAGE DT ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE
WAS 7.2, ALLOWING THE BREAKING OF CONSTRAINTS TO ALLOW THE FT TO BE 7.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[wxman57]

JMA is saying 85 kts 10-min wind. Might be a little bit of an underestimate.

[Yellow Evan]

JMA is saying 85 kts 10-min wind. Might be a little bit of an underestimate.

JMA should be completely disregarded when it comes to intensities of high end systems because their Koba Scale has an extreme low bias and is based off of distant land observations.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 160037

A. TYPHOON 28W (RAI)

B. 16/0000Z

C. 9.68N

D. 127.58E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1930Z 9.43N 128.55E SSMS


MARTIN

[mrbagyo]

this explains the extremely cold cloud tops.

[Yellow Evan]

Blend of JTWC, SAB, and ADT is 135 knots. That sounds about right here tbh.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA: 100kts, 925mb

T2122(Rai)
Issued at 2021/12/16 00:45 UTC
Analisys at 12/16 00 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center Position N9°40′(9.7°)
E127°40′(127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE200km(110NM)
30-kt wind area NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

[Hayabusa]

4th unofficial cat 5 of this season

28W RAI 211216 0000 9.7N 127.5E WPAC 140 920

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

I think storm surge in Siargao wont be as bad as what happened to Leyte. Bathymetry along the east coast of Siargao is just too steep and deep for that - it isn't the most optimal condition for storm surge. They'll get very tall waves though along the reefs.