J.Bastardi 20" possible over PR and possibly Gulf-bound

[Vortex]

Joe B exerpt from today:

In any case, here we are approaching mid-month and there it is over the eastern Caribbean. The system is forecasted by the European and UKMET to be near Hispaniola Wednesday and then we will have to see what the big trof coming off the east coast will do with it. If it survives till late week, it may wind up in the Gulf early next week. This of course assumes it develops. Even if it does not, tremendous rain, perhaps in excess of 20 inches, may fall on parts of Puerto Rico over the next three days. The parallel to 1985 was Kate's appearance around the 15th in that area.

The development will be slow. The GFS is feeding back and developing the system well to the northeast of Puerto Rico which would spare them the doom and gloom I am talking about. Let's see where the development occurs if it does, though. It is interesting to see it there, and it is the system we have been tracking for several days.

Our subscribers in the northeast Caribbean should be ready for a prolonged siege of heavy rain.

[cycloneye]

I hope that JB is wrong about the 20 inches.

[*StOrmsPr*]

Joe B exerpt from today:

In any case, here we are approaching mid-month and there it is over the eastern Caribbean. The system is forecasted by the European and UKMET to be near Hispaniola Wednesday and then we will have to see what the big trof coming off the east coast will do with it. If it survives till late week, it may wind up in the Gulf early next week. This of course assumes it develops. Even if it does not, tremendous rain, perhaps in excess of 20 inches, may fall on parts of Puerto Rico over the next three days. The parallel to 1985 was Kate's appearance around the 15th in that area.

The development will be slow. The GFS is feeding back and developing the system well to the northeast of Puerto Rico which would spare them the doom and gloom I am talking about. Let's see where the development occurs if it does, though. It is interesting to see it there, and it is the system we have been tracking for several days.

Our subscribers in the northeast Caribbean should be ready for a prolonged siege of heavy rain.

:bcry: i hope JB is wrong too . i don't know cycloneye but i'm soaking wet already

[cycloneye]

Yeah it has rained a lot in the past 5 days.

[Rainband]

Well the GOM thing is not gonna happen!!!! so the 20inches might not either

[george_r_1961]

Well im really concerned now that JB is watching this

[*StOrmsPr*]

Well the GOM thing is not gonna happen!!!! so the 20inches might not either

yea that may be right but with all the rain in the last 5 days or so . 5 more inches and i will have to use a boat to go to work instead of my car LOL

[cycloneye]

yea that may be right but with all the rain in these days. 5 more inches and i will have to use a boat to go to work instead of my car LOL[/quote]

I hope that another Hortense event like 1996 doesn't happen with this not likely a hurricane this time but a flooding event when 23" fell in Adjuntas at that event.

[Rainband]

Well im really concerned now that JB is watching this

Do I sense sarcasm All kidding aside Stay safe down there guys

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Well guys...I have to say that I don't like the look of it. It look's very ugly downthere and we have been under a long period of rain so our soils are already saturated with water. Any aditional rain will produce heavy floods and looking that big area of convection, if it comes our way it could be a very dangerous situation for the next two days or more. Please God!!! Leave this downthere!!!

Cycloman.

[cycloneye]

AMEN!!!!!

[*StOrmsPr*]

yea that may be right but with all the rain in these days. 5 more inches and i will have to use a boat to go to work instead of my car LOL[/quote]

I hope that another Hortense event like 1996 doesn't happen with this not likely a hurricane this time but a flooding event when 23" fell in Adjuntas at that event.

yea i'll never foget Hortense i almost lost my home in a mudslide!!

NO NO is not gonna happen again!!

[wxman57]

I agree with the very heavy rain potential in PR, but there is absolutely nothing to steer it west toward the Gulf. There is a BIG mid-level ridge over the Gulf and south U.S. now, and that ridge gets stronger and farther east by late this week. So unless this disturbance has its own propulsion system to move it against the mean 400-700mb flow, it isn't going anywhere near the Gulf. The map below is today's mean flow, but it doesn't change much 5 days out.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturbflow.gif">

[GulfTide]

Since I live near the Gulf and work at the beach, I'm glad it won't be heading my way. I still remember the late year storms on Juan and Kate in 1985. When it gets to this time of the year, you tend to think that you are out of the woods.

[Stormsfury]

I agree with the very heavy rain potential in PR, but there is absolutely nothing to steer it west toward the Gulf. There is a BIG mid-level ridge over the Gulf and south U.S. now, and that ridge gets stronger and farther east by late this week. So unless this disturbance has its own propulsion system to move it against the mean 400-700mb flow, it isn't going anywhere near the Gulf. The map below is today's mean flow, but it doesn't change much 5 days out.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturbflow.gif">

Bingo ... IMHO, JB is assuming the system stays or becomes more shallow and escapes the main steering currents ... or ... nevermind, I won't go there ...

SF

[Rainband]

Go where SF?? I hate to be left hanging..............

[wxman57]

Even if it didn't develop at all, it probably still wouldn't head into the Gulf - the lowest level flow would take it maybe into the southern Yucatan Peninsula or Honduras/Nicaragua as a tropical wave.