BOB: INVEST 94B

[Hayabusa]

I am usually not bothered by storms here (unless it's a cat 5) but the model track is interesting.

ABIO10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/170200Z-171800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 152232Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94B WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD MYANMAR WITHIN
THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

Man, models have gone from interesting to nothing with this one. Last week, they were showing it becoming a TS and moving east into the WPAC. A NIO to WPAC crossover would have been unprecedented.

[Sciencerocks]