WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Rai's center appears to have passed near Guihulngan City in Negros Oriental after crossing Cebu. The PAGASA AWS there stopped sending data after 11:20pm PhT. It last recorded TY-force wind speeds of 119kph and a pressure of 958.3 mb at 75m elev (SLP equivalent: 966.6 mb).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cebu City basically in ruins.

Not Haiyan-esque but in a really bad state. Our house is basically unlivable for the next few weeks if not months. My room's entire ceiling disappeared and leaks are all over the place. Poles all over fallen down. Never would've fathomed I'd witness this. Almost everyone I know lost part if not all of their roofs. Their businesses also destroyed. We were caught off guard. Hearing many reports of people trapped and injured, including my own relatives.

People saying this was worse than Mike/Ruping in terms of Metro Cebu impacts.

 https://twitter.com/sergieeeo/status/1471539285111177220




It's much calmer now but recovery could take a while. I'm thankful I made it out alive, but the eyewall was one of the most terrifying moments I've ever been through.

Please keep us in your thoughts.

It's also even worse in S. Leyte and Dinagat. Cell service went out for hours but is now restored, over there it's not.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Cebu City basically in ruins.

Not Haiyan-esque but in a really bad state. Our house is basically unlivable for the next few weeks if not months. My room's entire ceiling disappeared and leaks are all over the place. Poles all over fallen down. Never would've fathomed I'd witness this. Almost everyone I know lost part if not all of their roofs. Their businesses also destroyed. We were caught off guard. Hearing many reports of people trapped and injured, including my own relatives.

People saying this was worse than Mike/Ruping in terms of Metro Cebu impacts.

https://twitter.com/sergieeeo/status/1471539285111177220?t=eUTV6rJQzQYzCjBQhb2v7Q&s=19

It's much calmer now but recovery could take a while. I'm thankful I made it out alive, but the eyewall was one of the most terrifying moments I've ever been through.

Please keep us in your thoughts.

It's also even worse in S. Leyte and Dinagat. Cell service went out for hours but is now restored, over there it's not.

Wow that's terrible. Glad that you are okay but I will definitely be praying for you guys

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’m glad you made it. Houses can be rebuilt. Families cannot. But you are alive and so is your family. I will also be praying for you.

[dexterlabio]

Hoping that there will be very minimal casualties from Rai, and I'm feeling positive that this will be true because of how proactive the people were when they first heard about the news of a storm entering the Philippine territory 4 days ago.

The official forecasts were not hinting on a Cat4-5 super typhoon at first, but I saw the local government units and the citizens actually preparing for a worst-case scenario. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated or have willingly evacuated. Even though the country had months worth of break from TC impacts, people did not become complacent at all.

That being said, even if the casualties were actually minimal, the damage to infrastructure and agriculture will be overwhelming.

[doomhaMwx]

These estimates look overblown. Rai is probably down to category 1 now.

28W RAI 211217 0000 10.0N 121.1E WPAC 100 961

T2122(Rai)
Issued at 2021/12/17 00:50 UTC
Analisys at 12/17 00 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center Position N10°0′(10.0°)
E121°5′(121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE150km(80NM)
30-kt wind area NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

[mrbagyo]

lo and behold, the eye is making a comeback before passing over Palawan

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

Wow what a comeback!

[doomhaMwx]

So JTWC goes for a lower intensity than 00Z when it has clearly restrengthened since then.

28W RAI 211217 0600 10.1N 119.9E WPAC 95 962

T2122(Rai)
Issued at 2021/12/17 06:45 UTC
Analisys at 12/17 06 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center Position N10°5′(10.1°)
E119°55′(119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE150km(80NM)
30-kt wind area N440km(240NM)
S280km(150NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Updates from Siargao island.

 https://twitter.com/gmanews/status/1471780852040634372



 https://twitter.com/coastguardph/status/1471769505781403652

[mrbagyo]

what a comeback

[cycloneye]

Does anyone have reports of how extensive the damage has been and if there were fatalities?

[Hurricane2021]

Does anyone have reports of how extensive the damage has been and if there were fatalities?

In total was 500 milion$ and 8 deaths per wikipedia

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hoping that there will be very minimal casualties from Rai, and I'm feeling positive that this will be true because of how proactive the people were when they first heard about the news of a storm entering the Philippine territory 4 days ago.

The official forecasts were not hinting on a Cat4-5 super typhoon at first, but I saw the local government units and the citizens actually preparing for a worst-case scenario. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated or have willingly evacuated. Even though the country had months worth of break from TC impacts, people did not become complacent at all.

That being said, even if the casualties were actually minimal, the damage to infrastructure and agriculture will be overwhelming.

I really wish you were right and wish you were but it is quite early to tell. Am hearing reports of some casualties in Metro Cebu alone that are in groups (trapped group of 7 and another 6 guards from a high-end resort in Mactan). Southern Leyte, Bohol and northern Caraga all incommunicado and in a really dire situation. People here in CC only started "panic buying" necessities on the day of the storm itself, when signal 4 was already issued. It was Tacloban and Ormoc that were most proactive and didn't get it as bad as we did, thankfully.

My close friend and my other relatives live in the said provinces and we can only barely communicate with them. The preparations were mostly for a category 1-2 and not a borderline 5. Lesson learned for us. The VP and Gov of Bohol said we can't confirm the casualties yet (could go either good or bad) because even command centers are damaged and comms are down.

[doomhaMwx]

This was taken in Siargao island during the onslaught of Rai. (Original Facebook post here)
 https://twitter.com/TyphoonKph/status/1471905265947533312




That video was taken after the eye had already passed over. Satellite images on Dec 16, 2:10pm PhT (0610Z):

[dexterlabio]

Rai is poised to enter the list of Top 10 costliest typhoons in the Philippines.

[mrbagyo]

It's safe to say Odette will be retired from PAGASA's naming list.

[Foxfires]

It's safe to say Odette will be retired from PAGASA's naming list.

Yep, without a doubt (Wikipedia states 25 billion Philippine Pesos which is probably true)
but whether the WMO will retire "Rai" is an entirely different situation altogether (names like Fengshen, Jebi, Megi, Nepartak, etc, were not retired because...?)