Texas Winter 2021-2022
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
It's POURING outside with Lightning right now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NDG wrote:Maybe some possible hopes for TX in early January with the 06z GEFS showing the NAO becoming more western based or neutral along with a continuing -PNA, possible Arctic air sliding down east of the Rockies towards towards the south central US.
Yeah, looking at all of the extended/long range indices something is brewing for the 1st week of January. Coincides with the much anticipated MJO swing into Phase 8....with the Massive Build Up of Siberian Air in Western Canada, the hammer should drop down into the lower 48 when the Phase 8 swing happens. Mother Nature always seems to "balance" things out over extended periods and with the extreme Warm December, the pendulum could easily swing the other way quickly
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Overnight GFS says "Ho! Ho! Ho!, Merry Warm Christmas!" Time for some bike riding.
http://wxman57.com/images/Christmas.png
Wow. These temps could help trigger some severe holiday storms. The warm muggy 70+ December mornings are getting ridiculous.
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
rwfromkansas wrote:See you in February maybe.
Larry Cosgrove signals the death knell. I do note a week or so ago he was saying it would get cold in Texas, so though I love the guy, he follows the models as much as anybody else.
"Now if you live in the south central states or Dixie (sorry, Texas...) you will be bypassed by the winter weather. The Midwest and Northeast stand to see the best chance for snow and ice (not a sure thing, but at least better odds than the southern and central tier. The Intermountain Region should see plenty of frozen precipitation, largely west of the Continental Divide. Alberta and Saskatchewan may have to endure routine bitter cold, with snow and wind events, until the January Thaw shows up around 1-10-2022."
But where is February?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:NDG wrote:Maybe some possible hopes for TX in early January with the 06z GEFS showing the NAO becoming more western based or neutral along with a continuing -PNA, possible Arctic air sliding down east of the Rockies towards towards the south central US.
Yeah, looking at all of the extended/long range indices something is brewing for the 1st week of January. Coincides with the much anticipated MJO swing into Phase 8....with the Massive Build Up of Siberian Air in Western Canada, the hammer should drop down into the lower 48 when the Phase 8 swing happens. Mother Nature always seems to "balance" things out over extended periods and with the extreme Warm December, the pendulum could easily swing the other way quickly
But the extended ECMWF keeps throwing a curve ball in the MJO forecast not in a hurry moving it out of phase 7 through early January.
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Most did not think that the MJO would Retrograde back to Phase 6, but it did!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/It-did-Retrograde.gif

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/It-did-Retrograde.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NDG wrote:orangeblood wrote:NDG wrote:Maybe some possible hopes for TX in early January with the 06z GEFS showing the NAO becoming more western based or neutral along with a continuing -PNA, possible Arctic air sliding down east of the Rockies towards towards the south central US.
Yeah, looking at all of the extended/long range indices something is brewing for the 1st week of January. Coincides with the much anticipated MJO swing into Phase 8....with the Massive Build Up of Siberian Air in Western Canada, the hammer should drop down into the lower 48 when the Phase 8 swing happens. Mother Nature always seems to "balance" things out over extended periods and with the extreme Warm December, the pendulum could easily swing the other way quickly
But the extended ECMWF keeps throwing a curbed ball in the MJO forecast not in a hurry moving it out of phase 7 through early January.
It's a little more delayed than GFS but most indications point towards the swing happening....although painstakingly slow!!


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- TropicalTundra
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 703
- Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: Temple, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
No one going to talk about the NAMs, especially 12k and 3k? They have snow particularly in Midland/Abilene.
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:No one going to talk about the NAMs, especially 12k and 3k? They have snow particularly in Midland/Abilene.
06Z GFS has it out there, too. Atmosphere may be cold enough in the higher elevations of west Texas tomorrow night. 00Z Euro has snow, too. The new 12Z GFS says "nope".
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The models are really trying to bring in the cold to Texas, but Heat Miser has discovered that he has the power to control the Texas Ridge! 

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas
?

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The GFS may be hinting at some cold coming down around January 1st. I know it’s La La land. If it follows the same pattern, it will probably get shunted off to the east again.
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- starsfan65
- Category 2
- Posts: 704
- Age: 47
- Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:18 pm
- Location: Garland,Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
He doesn't control our weather!!!!Iceresistance wrote:The models are really trying to bring in the cold to Texas, but Heat Miser has discovered that he has the power to control the Texas Ridge!
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- gboudx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4080
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
- Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas?
Our begonias are still alive and thriving. Normally they would've been long dead by now. 57's voodoo control over the weather is quite strong this year.
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1798
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- Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas :lol:?
Of course. In Austin, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2000, 1998, 1990, 1987, 1985, 1984, 1983....
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
gboudx wrote:Ntxw wrote:Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas?
Our begonias are still alive and thriving. Normally they would've been long dead by now. 57's voodoo control over the weather is quite strong this year.
Yep I've seen some good blooms still. Since 2000 and especially since 2010 warm December's have greatly outnumbered cold ones with the 2 hottest ever since 2015. Doesn't matter el nino, la Nina, or neutral December is representing more and more a Fall month rather than winter.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas?
2009
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Warmest Decembers on Record So Far
Austin airport
Austin Camp Mabry
Brownsville
College Station
Dallas
Dallas/Fort Worth
Del Rio
Galveston
Laredo
Longview
McAllen
Midland/Odessa
San Angelo
Tyler
December records will not be set for a number of Texas locations, including Abilene, Amarillo, El Paso, San Antonio, and Victoria.
On the "possible" list are Beaumont/Port Arthur, Childress, Corpus Christi, Houston, Lubbock, Texarkana, Waco, and Wichita Falls.
Austin airport
Austin Camp Mabry
Brownsville
College Station
Dallas
Dallas/Fort Worth
Del Rio
Galveston
Laredo
Longview
McAllen
Midland/Odessa
San Angelo
Tyler
December records will not be set for a number of Texas locations, including Abilene, Amarillo, El Paso, San Antonio, and Victoria.
On the "possible" list are Beaumont/Port Arthur, Childress, Corpus Christi, Houston, Lubbock, Texarkana, Waco, and Wichita Falls.
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