Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gpsnowman]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

[Cpv17]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

[wxman57]

Quite an interesting 12Z GFS run, I'd say. A bit of cross-Polar flow setting up around New Year's. That's the way Arctic outbreaks start. But, the question is, is the GFS correct about the flow pattern so far out when it's had so much difficulty with the 7-10 day pattern of late? Well, I'm not worried. My wall is strong, and the Arctic air diverter is in place. Just in case, though, I'm checking on that NASA hypersonic jet just in case I need to evacuate to Australia in early January.

[AustinTXResident]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

1/15-17/2007
In Austin: 36-29, 31-29, 33-29
In Dallas: 32-25, 31-26, 32-26

1/8-10/2010
In Austin: 35-21, 42-17, 48-20
In Dallas: 30-16, 36-13, 44-17

1/8-10/2015
In Austin: 36-23, 38-34, 36-32
In Dallas: 38-16, 39-27, 38-31

1/6-8/2017
In Austin: 34-23, 44-19, 53-21
In Dallas: 27-19, 40-14, 49-20

1/1-3/2018
In Austin: 32-25, 32-26, 56-22
In Dallas: 30-17, 28-21, 50-19

[Iceresistance]

GEPS has -30F Mean Temperature in Southern Canada in the long range at +264 hours, that is unusual for a Ensemble model run to do that.

[Brent]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

Last year... Snowstorm in Waco Austin but not DFW

[AustinTXResident]

Chilly day today puts me in a mood for an optimistic post.

Do not lose hope my friends despite the coming torchmas. We torch but the broader pattern has changed. As prior mention the MJO forecast thus far have verified and the overall Cryosphere is beginning to set up the high latitude blocking (it hasn't happened yet but on the verge.) As a result the AO forecast is on the road to tank.

https://i.imgur.com/Lr5SDLx.gif

So for the first time this young meteorological winter the AO is now negative. That means the Arctic and Polar regions is ripe to disperse the bottled cold air eventually. We have plenty of it to disperse.

Needless it has happened before, can it happen again? Is the Arctic regions ready to go inside out and dislodge itself?


Some posts mid to late Jan 2021. It was desolate with the same ridge/trough configuration we are in now.

Go from exciting times to doom and gloom just like that :x Gotta love it.

This isn't getting anyone hyped lol

https://i.ibb.co/vYfr8Gg/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif

As the cold built in Canada eventually the -PNA relaxed and the -NAO/AO came. It was then unloaded...can we do it again but earlier?

Some posted maps from that period.

https://i.imgur.com/uhVrLxs.png
https://i.imgur.com/KqxeMAq.png

Maybe?...Wxman57's miscalculation is that the more he fortifies his seemingly impenetrable wall...the more it is pressured up behind it just waiting...for now...

https://i.imgur.com/DTSai6L.png

February 2021 was triggered by a stretching of the polar vortex, which happened because of above normal snow cover in northern Siberia and below normal sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea during October 2020. Neither of those happened in October 2021.


See, e.g.,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

[AustinTXResident]

GEPS has -30F Mean Temperature in Southern Canada in the long range at +264 hours, that is unusual for a Ensemble model run to do that.

Source?

[Iceresistance]

GEPS has -30F Mean Temperature in Southern Canada in the long range at +264 hours, that is unusual for a Ensemble model run to do that.

Source?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2021121812&fh=264

[wxman22]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

In January 2018 we had a pretty good sleet storm in southeast Texas.With temps in the 20s and some thundersleet.

[Iceresistance]

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

In January 2018 we had a pretty good sleet storm in southeast Texas.With temps in the 20s and some thundersleet.

January 2016, Temperatures fell to 1°F at my house & at school

[AustinTXResident]

GEPS has -30F Mean Temperature in Southern Canada in the long range at +264 hours, that is unusual for a Ensemble model run to do that.

Source?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2021121812&fh=264

Where does that give the average temp and how anomalous that is?

[wxman57]

Source?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2021121812&fh=264

Where does that give the average temp and how anomalous that is?

GFS ensembles don't even have freezing temps down to D-FW on Jan 3. You can check out the links below on Levi's page. For now, I'd day it's something to keep an eye on (possible cold), but it's too early to be confident in anything.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2021121812/gem-ens_T2m_us_65.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2021121812/gem-ens_T2ma_us_65.png

[Brent]

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

In January 2018 we had a pretty good sleet storm in southeast Texas.With temps in the 20s and some thundersleet.

Ah yeah I believe it snowed down south somewhere but not DFW

Yeah until February DFW had that ridiculous streak

[Ntxw]

February 2021 was triggered by a stretching of the polar vortex, which happened because of above normal snow cover in northern Siberia and below normal sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea during October 2020. Neither of those happened in October 2021.


See, e.g.,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

There certainly can be other reasons for the PV to stretch other than the noted above. Numerous things can happen to deflect the Strat PV, including tropical interference. Likewise we've had years both the same features that didn't feature such a cold stretch as well.

[Ntxw]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

You are correct for DFW January has been quite boring. You'll have to go back to the mid 80s and late 70s when January was the show. Now those to the south in central and south Texas, January has been quite fun.

[rwfromkansas]

Cold in Kansas..30s today and teens last night. Only brought my jacket. lol.

Will warm up when we head back to Texas though.

[AustinTXResident]

February 2021 was triggered by a stretching of the polar vortex, which happened because of above normal snow cover in northern Siberia and below normal sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea during October 2020. Neither of those happened in October 2021.


See, e.g.,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

There certainly can be other reasons for the PV to stretch other than the noted above. Numerous things can happen to deflect the Strat PV, including tropical interference. Likewise we've had years both the same features that didn't feature such a cold stretch as well.

Sources?

[Cerlin]

February 2021 was triggered by a stretching of the polar vortex, which happened because of above normal snow cover in northern Siberia and below normal sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea during October 2020. Neither of those happened in October 2021.,

See, e.g.,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

There certainly can be other reasons for the PV to stretch other than the noted above. Numerous things can happen to deflect the Strat PV, including tropical interference. Likewise we've had years both the same features that didn't feature such a cold stretch as well.

Sources?

The following link was really helpful in helping my understanding of the PV.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex

Mentions SSW events, ridging, and the differences between the PV and the polar jet, in addition to the factors you and Ntxw mentioned.

[Iceresistance]

Cold in Kansas..30s today and teens last night. Only brought my jacket. lol.

Will warm up when we head back to Texas though.

It's going to be in the 20s across Oklahoma & Kansas tonight!