Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is saying it's going to be 80 on Christmas Eve! Like, Seriously?

[Brent]

Cold in Kansas..30s today and teens last night. Only brought my jacket. lol.

Will warm up when we head back to Texas though.

It's going to be in the 20s across Oklahoma & Kansas tonight!

Yeah it's definitely cold here almost to freezing already

[kingwood_tx1999]

58 here too warm

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Ntxw]

February 2021 was triggered by a stretching of the polar vortex, which happened because of above normal snow cover in northern Siberia and below normal sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea during October 2020. Neither of those happened in October 2021.


See, e.g.,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

There certainly can be other reasons for the PV to stretch other than the noted above. Numerous things can happen to deflect the Strat PV, including tropical interference. Likewise we've had years both the same features that didn't feature such a cold stretch as well.

Sources?

There are a wide variety of peer review works one can easily search for a further understanding of PV/SSW perturbing events. Judah Cohen developed a SAI index for the factors you mentioned with snow cover in October and below sea ice in the Beaufort, which unfortunately has not worked so well since 2010. Both factors were present in 2015-2016 October and 2012 that did not provide such a blast as noted by the SAI in the tenth month. While it can be a helpful factor there is so much more at play. First the stratosphere is more than just what is sitting at the North Pole, the tropical stratosphere too can perturb.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020RG000708

One can also easily defer to the years and browse through the Rutgers Cryosphere page and look for the anomalies to match.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/docs.php?target=cdr

Some of these may prove more insightful than news articles.

[wxman57]

58 here too warm

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

57F here. Too cold to even think about going outside.

[Brent]

58 here too warm

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

57F here. Too cold to even think about going outside.

Ha you'd be miserable up here we weren't even close to that this afternoon

[Cpv17]

58 here too warm

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

57F here. Too cold to even think about going outside.

Ha you'd be miserable up here we weren't even close to that this afternoon

There’s probably a 15 degree temperature difference between Tulsa, OK and southeast TX..maybe more than that. Brent, you really have nothing to complain about. You’ll have way more of a winter than we ever will barring some ridiculous event lol

[Brent]

57F here. Too cold to even think about going outside.

Ha you'd be miserable up here we weren't even close to that this afternoon

There’s probably a 15 degree temperature difference between Tulsa, OK and southeast TX..maybe more than that. Brent, you really have nothing to complain about. You’ll have way more of a winter than we ever will barring some ridiculous event lol

yeah I don't want another February but I just hope we get one good snowstorm... most years in Dallas did not

and we should its been a long time since we had a snowless winter here apparently

[AustinTXResident]

There certainly can be other reasons for the PV to stretch other than the noted above. Numerous things can happen to deflect the Strat PV, including tropical interference. Likewise we've had years both the same features that didn't feature such a cold stretch as well.

Sources?

There are a wide variety of peer review works one can easily search for a further understanding of PV/SSW perturbing events. Judah Cohen developed a SAI index for the factors you mentioned with snow cover in October and below sea ice in the Beaufort, which unfortunately has not worked so well since 2010. Both factors were present in 2015-2016 October and 2012 that did not provide such a blast as noted by the SAI in the tenth month. While it can be a helpful factor there is so much more at play. First the stratosphere is more than just what is sitting at the North Pole, the tropical stratosphere too can perturb.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020RG000708

One can also easily defer to the years and browse through the Rutgers Cryosphere page and look for the anomalies to match.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/docs.php?target=cdr

Some of these may prove more insightful than news articles.

I've read peer reviewed articles he authored. And it's a fact that the February 2021 Arctic outbreak was predicted by him in accordance with his peer reviewed research, which he continues to write about in science journals.

For Austin, only 4 previous Arctic outbreaks in the climate record matched the February 2021 outbreak: December 1989, December 1983, January 1930, and February 1899. I am talking about the most severe of outbreaks, not the ones that occur annually, every 5 years, or even every 10 years.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

[Haris]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!

Which is something because I can't remember a January that had a good winter storm or big cold blast. Maybe someone can find one but they seem to be timed in December, February, or even March the last several years.

I completely agree. I don’t recall anything memorable happening in January.

We had the Austin TX special with 3” of snow just earlier this year. What a pure luck of a system that was. Even San Antonio completely missed out

[Ntxw]

Sources?

There are a wide variety of peer review works one can easily search for a further understanding of PV/SSW perturbing events. Judah Cohen developed a SAI index for the factors you mentioned with snow cover in October and below sea ice in the Beaufort, which unfortunately has not worked so well since 2010. Both factors were present in 2015-2016 October and 2012 that did not provide such a blast as noted by the SAI in the tenth month. While it can be a helpful factor there is so much more at play. First the stratosphere is more than just what is sitting at the North Pole, the tropical stratosphere too can perturb.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020RG000708

One can also easily defer to the years and browse through the Rutgers Cryosphere page and look for the anomalies to match.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/docs.php?target=cdr

Some of these may prove more insightful than news articles.

I've read peer reviewed articles he authored. And it's a fact that the February 2021 Arctic outbreak was predicted by him in accordance with his peer reviewed research, which he continues to write about in science journals.

For Austin, only 4 previous Arctic outbreaks in the climate record matched the February 2021 outbreak: December 1989, December 1983, January 1930, and February 1899. I am talking about the most severe of outbreaks, not the ones that occur annually, every 5 years, or even every 10 years.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

December 1983 and 1989 were not -AO driven which is what the October snow cover is used to predict and they were also not impressive with much more beaufort sea ice back then. So that method didn't work in those cases. So it works in some cases and not others, which was my point there are other factors involved as well.

[TropicalTundra]

KXXV really said “Don’t be surprised to see a snowflake or two tomorrow morning!”

[TropicalTundra]

KXXV really said “Don’t be surprised to see a snowflake or two tomorrow morning!”

Also by KVUE:

[TropicalTundra]

 https://twitter.com/nwssanantonio/status/1472522947743076354

[Iceresistance]

Bitterly cold this morning, 9°F in Watonga, 14°F in OKC, & 15°F at my house.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 19. Forecast was 24.

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 13 here in KS. I expected a definite freeze IMBY in north FW, but my station says it barely reached 32. Figured 30 or something at least.

I usually run 2-3 degrees below DFW or so, and they didn’t get to freezing at all.

[wxman57]

BITTER cold down here in Houston this morning - upper 40s!! However, we should see mid-70s by Thursday, upper 70s by Christmas Eve, then lows in the mid-60s with highs near 80 on Christmas Day! Low 80s from Christmas to New Year's. Almost warm enough for cycling without cold weather gear. Nearly perfect winter weather.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is already really up to something, it's priming the cold air way faster compared to 6z!

[harp]

12z GFS is already really up to something, it's priming the cold air way faster compared to 6z!

The end of the 12z GFS has the arctic air plunging south….yeah, it’s always 2 weeks out… The rest of the run is crap..