Texas Winter 2021-2022
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Yeah, at the end of the 12Z GFS run the GFS is predicting possibly a light freeze in the Houston area on January 4th. Warms up the next day as onshore flow resumes. Another brief cold shot. Hopefully, it's warmer with future runs.
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TropicalTundra
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- Posts: 703
- Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: Temple, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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bubba hotep
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- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:Iceresistance wrote:12z GFS is already really up to something, it's priming the cold air way faster compared to 6z!
The end of the 12z GFS has the arctic air plunging south….yeah, it’s always 2 weeks out…The rest of the run is crap..
There was actually pretty good support from both the 00z Euro EPS and GEFS of the cold flip occurring as we move into the new year. As others have pointed out, the cold will be there. It's just a matter of when and how it is delivered. Tropical forcing and teleconnections still support a colder flip in the longer range.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
What is this? Thanks.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
Only 564 hours to go
But seriously I'm hearing a lot of talk about a pattern change early January
Of course it's still 38 here today... So yeah it's quite cold
thehyped Christmas torch still isn't as bad as last week here. The lows are still in the upper 40s there was a night last week we barely got below 70!
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#neversummer
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TropicalTundra
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- Posts: 703
- Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: Temple, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
What is this? Thanks.
A snowstorm only 570 hours out. 100% verified to happen.
Last edited by TropicalTundra on Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
What is this? Thanks.
A snowstorm only 570 hours out. 100% verified to happen.
I'm not sure about that. And 'only' 570 hours out? It's 3 Weeks out!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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HockeyTx82
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2540
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
What is this? Thanks.
A snowstorm only 570 hours out. 100% verified to happen.
Like my refinance mortgage guy said lock it now because in 10 minutes the rate could change.
1 likes
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
I guess I meant what model is showing this?
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TropicalTundra
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- Location: Temple, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
I guess I meant what model is showing this?
CFS
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
I guess I meant what model is showing this?
It's the CFS - Climate Forecast System. Yes, I'm 100% positive that it will verify.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Forecast_System_(NCEP)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I’m glad you do!!wxman57 wrote:harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
I guess I meant what model is showing this?
It's the CFS - Climate Forecast System. Yes, I'm 100% positive that it will verify.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Forecast_System_(NCEP)
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:I’m glad you do!!wxman57 wrote:harp wrote:I guess I meant what model is showing this?
It's the CFS - Climate Forecast System. Yes, I'm 100% positive that it will verify.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Forecast_System_(NCEP)
Hey, he's trying to fool you into thinking that this will verify, the CFS is notoriously bad for predicting the Winter Weather Precip. but it's good for patterns.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I’m glad you agree!! If it was heat, you would! Lol!!!wxman57 wrote:harp wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FosYzh7.jpg
I guess I meant what model is showing this?
It's the CFS - Climate Forecast System. Yes, I'm 100% positive that it will verify.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Forecast_System_(NCEP)
1 likes
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:I’m glad you agree!! If it was heat, you would! Lol!!!wxman57 wrote:harp wrote:I guess I meant what model is showing this?
It's the CFS - Climate Forecast System. Yes, I'm 100% positive that it will verify.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Forecast_System_(NCEP)
Oh absolutely
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
KFOR is saying that we (Including Cerlin, Brent & Weather Dude) could get a chilly blast after Christmas
https://kfor.com/weather/latest-long-range-jet-stream-shows-an-oklahoma-cold-blast-possible-after-christmas/
https://kfor.com/weather/latest-long-range-jet-stream-shows-an-oklahoma-cold-blast-possible-after-christmas/
2 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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rwfromkansas
- Category 5
- Posts: 2627
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
That CFS model has a snowstorm for the entire state. That’s basically impossible, lol.
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
rwfromkansas wrote:That CFS model has a snowstorm for the entire state. That’s basically impossible, lol.
Of course the models think that nothing is impossible.
But, everything is possible given the right conditions, a snowstorm for Entire States of Oklahoma & Texas must require a lot of conditions: Very Cold Air mass already in place, powerful storm system that rides along the northern end of the Jet Stream, & there is no Warm nose (Or below freezing if there is one) for the entire area, those conditions must be PERFECT for this to happen, & it does not happen very often.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Gonna be in California from the 29th through early next year…maybe I’m bad luck and something will happen then! LOL
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Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
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