Texas Winter 2021-2022

[harp]

The 18z GFS absolutely SUCKS.

how so?

70’s for highs all the way through January 5th.

[gboudx]

The 18z GFS absolutely SUCKS.

how so?

Mostly highs in 70s with some 60s and 80s thrown in.

[Snowman65]

shocker lol...

[Cerlin]

We’re going to need this overwhelmingly negative PNA to change if we want much hope at a big cold snap. It’s not the defining factor but it’s forecasted to become even more negative. We want it ideally in that +/- 1 range and it’s certainly not forecasted to be there any time soon. EPO is also trending back to neutral soon too. We’re at least not going to be dealing with a massive heat wave after the next few days but I’m not really optimistic yet on anything breaking our pattern over the next couple of weeks, even with a few promising GFS runs here and there.

[Iceresistance]

We’re going to need this overwhelmingly negative PNA to change if we want much hope at a big cold snap. It’s not the defining factor but it’s forecasted to become even more negative. We want it ideally in that +/- 1 range and it’s certainly not forecasted to be there any time soon. EPO is also trending back to neutral soon too. We’re at least not going to be dealing with a massive heat wave after the next few days but I’m not really optimistic yet on anything breaking our pattern over the next couple of weeks, even with a few promising GFS runs here and there.

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1640001600-QPJ3BkBMWuYgrb2.png

I've seen the AO & NAO expected to turn Negative but refused in November, could the PNA defy model expectations?

[Cpv17]

We’re going to need this overwhelmingly negative PNA to change if we want much hope at a big cold snap. It’s not the defining factor but it’s forecasted to become even more negative. We want it ideally in that +/- 1 range and it’s certainly not forecasted to be there any time soon. EPO is also trending back to neutral soon too. We’re at least not going to be dealing with a massive heat wave after the next few days but I’m not really optimistic yet on anything breaking our pattern over the next couple of weeks, even with a few promising GFS runs here and there.

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1640001600-QPJ3BkBMWuYgrb2.png

Yep! The PNA is killing us. If it were neutral right now we’d be getting hammered.

[kingwood_tx1999]

It's not going to change..we've been talking about this for what since November lol..let's just move on the March..Im tired of -removed- and hoping it goes negative or this goes positive or that goes this way and that way and turns north and south but goes east to west..blah,blah,blah..lol..when is hurricane season?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Iceresistance]

It's not going to change..we've been talking about this for what since November lol..let's just move on the March..Im tired of -removed- and hoping it goes negative or this goes positive or that goes this way and that way and turns north and south but goes east to west..blah,blah,blah..lol..when is hurricane season?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

We need to get past Storm Season first, & it looks bad.


We were in this mindset before this past winter, then February 2021 came & wiped that out, literally!

[Iceresistance]

If January 2022 does not produce, then I will get worried for February 2022, the cold air will just keep building & concentrating up there in Canada & Alaska, & it will become a ticking time bomb just waiting to spill over towards us when the Teleconnections & Blocking are ready to go & line up perfectly.

[gboudx]

It's not going to change..we've been talking about this for what since November lol..let's just move on the March..Im tired of -removed- and hoping it goes negative or this goes positive or that goes this way and that way and turns north and south but goes east to west..blah,blah,blah..lol..when is hurricane season?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Hopefully it’s skipped this year.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It's not going to change..we've been talking about this for what since November lol..let's just move on the March..Im tired of -removed- and hoping it goes negative or this goes positive or that goes this way and that way and turns north and south but goes east to west..blah,blah,blah..lol..when is hurricane season?
Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

100%. Winter is cancelled.

[AustinTXResident]

If January 2022 does not produce, then I will get worried for February 2022, the cold air will just keep building & concentrating up there in Canada & Alaska, & it will become a ticking time bomb just waiting to spill over towards us when the Teleconnections & Blocking are ready to go & line up perfectly.

That's not what those cold air masses do. They've been moving in and out of that region - just not in the direction of Texas. There's no "ticking time bomb."

[TheProfessor]

If January 2022 does not produce, then I will get worried for February 2022, the cold air will just keep building & concentrating up there in Canada & Alaska, & it will become a ticking time bomb just waiting to spill over towards us when the Teleconnections & Blocking are ready to go & line up perfectly.

That's not what those cold air masses do. They've been moving in and out of that region - just not in the direction of Texas. There's no "ticking time bomb."

Cold airmasses moderate unless there's something to replenish it. That's what's happening in our source region of NW Canada. The pattern has been favorable for cold air to load up there and in that regard it is a ticking time bomb as there will always be a threat for that cold to unload while this pattern continues. The catch is that we may never get a favorable pattern to unlatch that cold and send it southeast. That doesn't mean it isn't a ticking time bomb, it just means the bomb never went off.

[Texas Snowman]

Calling for a winter cancel…before Christmas?!?

Next year it will be before Thanksgiving.

And the year after that, before Halloween!

[Ntxw]

It's hard being patient especially when it's warm. Just hope it's not like 2011 and it's always 2 weeks out.

That being said COME ON GUYS. Last year nothing happened until like the 2nd week of January! . It was hardly cold or any snow event (of note) in Texas last December either!!! Even though we've been talking about possible pattern change (looking ahead) but the big Aleutian ridge and MJO didn't even go on the move until this week!

One thing is bad though, we need rain. This growing drought is becoming a major issue. Moderate and severe drought is expanding across the state as well as much of Oklahoma.

[Brent]

It's hard being patient especially when it's warm. Just hope it's not like 2011 and it's always 2 weeks out.

That being said COME ON GUYS. Last year nothing happened until like the 2nd week of January! . It was hardly cold or any snow event (of note) in Texas last December either!!! Even though we've been talking about possible pattern change (looking ahead) but the big Aleutian ridge and MJO didn't even go on the move until this week!

One thing is bad though, we need rain. This growing drought is becoming a major issue. Moderate and severe drought is expanding across the state as well as much of Oklahoma.

Oh I totally agree... It's easy to get caught up in the wild swings of fantasy land(I can speak from personal experience here ) but I still feel pretty confident that at least January will be more interesting than December. It's so early in the season still... Last year the first snow in the state was NYE out in West Texas and yeah the 35 corridor wasn't til mid January and remember what happened after that pretty sure you can go back to last year and find similar posts at this point

Oh and I agree on the rain even up here it's getting rough. Probably fire weather for Christmas yay /s

edit: 0z GFS again dumps cold at the end of the run

[AustinTXResident]

Only 4 times in Austin Camp Mabry's climate record has November been cooler than December. The last time was 50 years ago, in 1971. It's going to happen this year, too.

[bubba hotep]

FWD going with 79F for Christmas day in DFW and that is probably too conservative. What a horrible December.

[wxman57]

GFS keeps delaying the front, now until the 5th. Previously, it had Houston highs in the upper 20s on the 4th, then upper 50s, now near 80. It's best just not to look beyond the next 5-7 days. Looking in northern Canada for any sign of cross-Polar flow, I see it. However, it's going from Canada to Siberia in the long range. Wrong way for cold down here. I suspect we'll eventually get a strong cold front in Jan-Feb. Heck, today is only the first day of winter.

[Snowman65]

Ive been saying for at least 6 weeks now that there wont be any winter to speak of this year...