Texas Winter 2021-2022

[NDG]

Houston, we have a problem, the GEFS has now joined the ECMWF in delaying the MJO going into phase 8

[HockeyTx82]

Houston, we have a problem, the GEFS has now joined the ECMWF in delaying the MJO going into phase 8

https://i.imgur.com/n5KwLAN.gif

Problem for who exactly?

[cheezyWXguy]

Ive been saying for at least 6 weeks now that there wont be any winter to speak of this year...

This feels like a troll but I’m going to try to take this in good faith. Claims require substantiation, and just saying “I’ve been saying X thing for Y time” doesn’t establish credibility, especially since your first post was 5 days ago. We would probably need answers to the below questions to make your statement verifiable.

- Based on what sources?
- For what area?
- What do you define as winter?

[gboudx]

Ive been saying for at least 6 weeks now that there wont be any winter to speak of this year...

This feels like a troll but I’m going to try to take this in good faith. Claims require substantiation, and just saying “I’ve been saying X thing for Y time” doesn’t establish credibility, especially since your first post was 5 days ago. We would probably need answers to the below questions to make your statement verifiable.

- Based on what sources?
- For what area?
- What do you define as winter?

Snowman65's "6 weeks" may extend to his/her posts on the WxInfinity board as well.

[NDG]

Houston, we have a problem, the GEFS has now joined the ECMWF in delaying the MJO going into phase 8

https://i.imgur.com/n5KwLAN.gif

Problem for who exactly?

The Southern & SE US.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ive been saying for at least 6 weeks now that there wont be any winter to speak of this year...

This feels like a troll but I’m going to try to take this in good faith. Claims require substantiation, and just saying “I’ve been saying X thing for Y time” doesn’t establish credibility, especially since your first post was 5 days ago. We would probably need answers to the below questions to make your statement verifiable.

- Based on what sources?
- For what area?
- What do you define as winter?

Snowman65's "6 weeks" may extend to his/her posts on the WxInfinity board as well.

Hopefully their posts were more detailed over there.

[wxman57]

Why would one think that the GFS' MJO forecast 16 days out is good?

[HockeyTx82]

Houston, we have a problem, the GEFS has now joined the ECMWF in delaying the MJO going into phase 8

https://i.imgur.com/n5KwLAN.gif

Problem for who exactly?

The Southern & SE US.
https://i.imgur.com/iMU0g99.jpg

So what are you saying exactly? Delaying and problem. Not sure I understand your post. So we are not going to 8?

[bubba hotep]

Boo!!!

Rick Mitchell
@RickMitchellWX
·
5m
Latest output from the National Blend of Models. If this verifies it would be a record high temperature for DFW on Christmas. Current record high on Christmas is 80 set in 2016. #NBCDFWWeather
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FHJQvBCWQAA ... name=small

[gboudx]

Why would one think that the GFS' MJO forecast 16 days out is good?

You must be new here.

[bubba hotep]

Houston, we have a problem, the GEFS has now joined the ECMWF in delaying the MJO going into phase 8

https://i.imgur.com/n5KwLAN.gif

Destructive interference with the La Nina background state. It was always a possibility that the background state would overwhelm the MJO and either slow it down or stop it.

[dhweather]

Why would one think that the GFS' MJO forecast 16 days out is good?

Who would anyone think any model >7 days out is good?

[wxman57]

Why would one think that the GFS' MJO forecast 16 days out is good?

Who would anyone think any model >7 days out is good?

There are times when the models do well beyond 7 days. Last February's freeze was one case. Models picked up on it 9-10 days out. The Christmas snow event of 2004 was picked up in the long-range by the GFS. However, the current pattern, at least across the U.S., has proven difficult for the GFS to predict beyond 5-7 days. Just because the GFS can't predict the weather across the U.S. very far out recently, does that mean it is having the same issues elsewhere around the world? I don't know, just wondering.

[dhweather]

It's hard being patient especially when it's warm. Just hope it's not like 2011 and it's always 2 weeks out.

That being said COME ON GUYS. Last year nothing happened until like the 2nd week of January! . It was hardly cold or any snow event (of note) in Texas last December either!!! Even though we've been talking about possible pattern change (looking ahead) but the big Aleutian ridge and MJO didn't even go on the move until this week!

One thing is bad though, we need rain. This growing drought is becoming a major issue. Moderate and severe drought is expanding across the state as well as much of Oklahoma.

I'm pretty sure in the fine print of Storm2k it reads "The weather you desire is always two weeks out"

[dhweather]

Why would one think that the GFS' MJO forecast 16 days out is good?

Who would anyone think any model >7 days out is good?

There are times when the models do well beyond 7 days. Last February's freeze was one case. Models picked up on it 9-10 days out. The Christmas snow event of 2004 was picked up in the long-range by the GFS. However, the current pattern, at least across the U.S., has proven difficult for the GFS to predict beyond 5-7 days. Just because the GFS can't predict the weather across the U.S. very far out recently, does that mean it is having the same issues elsewhere around the world? I don't know, just wondering.

The GFS did an exceptional job sniffing out the February blast, and did rather well with the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. As for the rest of the world, I cannot say how it is performing right now. For me, generally beyond 5-7 days, all models start to become suspect.

[Cpv17]

Why would one think that the GFS' MJO forecast 16 days out is good?

Who would anyone think any model >7 days out is good?

There are times when the models do well beyond 7 days. Last February's freeze was one case. Models picked up on it 9-10 days out. The Christmas snow event of 2004 was picked up in the long-range by the GFS. However, the current pattern, at least across the U.S., has proven difficult for the GFS to predict beyond 5-7 days. Just because the GFS can't predict the weather across the U.S. very far out recently, does that mean it is having the same issues elsewhere around the world? I don't know, just wondering.

I’ve yet to even reach the 30’s here in Wharton. We’ve hit 40°F twice. I’m thinking we won’t hit the 30’s till January. Pretty crazy if you ask me. These fronts that have been coming in really aren’t even knocking the temps down to below normal, only back to near normal conditions.

[Ntxw]

At this rate New Year's day could rival Christmas' heat .

[wxman57]

Let's see, how does that saying go? The trend is my friend! Hang tight, winter lovers. The 384hr panel of the 12Z GFS shows a big Arctic airmass moving south down the Plains (again). It MUST be correct this time, right?

[wxman57]

Plotting the extended range GFS, there's a big cool-down on January 3rd. Possibly down to the upper 30s in Houston. This is before that strong cold front moves through around the 6th (according to the GFS).

[Ntxw]

Man the Euro has the Arctic Polar Vortex coming down the US/Canadian border with stupid cold in Montanta, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. If only there were some big HP sitting up there what a show it could be!

Maybe we can beat the models here and the cold just plows under its own weight?