Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Was seeing tweets that Chicago has yet to measure any snow this fall. May be the latest first snow in Chicago ever. Could occur the first week of January.

[Ntxw]

-40s to -50 in Montana..jesus.

[Cpv17]

-40s to -50 in Montana..jesus.

Look at the temperature gradients..incredible. The ridge over us and the southeast is holding strong.

[Golf7270]

-40s to -50 in Montana..jesus.

Hopefully we arent chasing unicorns all winter. Webberweather is pretty smart and he tweets alot said that phase 7 in negative enso, which is laniña is a colder signal in phase 7 for January. Starting to doubt him. Definitely need a shakeup in the pattern whatever way we can get it

[orangeblood]

-40s to -50 in Montana..jesus.

Look at the temperature gradients..incredible. The ridge over us and the southeast is holding strong.

That ridge will be undercut with that kind of cold

There is just an insane amount of cold coming into North America over the next 10 days, particularly the Western US....once that PV elongates/moves off to the east, this kind of cold usually overwhelms the entire lower 48. It's not just going to disappear.

Get ready, WINTER IS COMING!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ive been saying for at least 6 weeks now that there wont be any winter to speak of this year...

This feels like a troll but I’m going to try to take this in good faith. Claims require substantiation, and just saying “I’ve been saying X thing for Y time” doesn’t establish credibility, especially since your first post was 5 days ago. We would probably need answers to the below questions to make your statement verifiable.

- Based on what sources?
- For what area?
- What do you define as winter?

This poster sucks. All they do is post drivel with no substance. I’m disappointed he found this board as did Kingwood. I left the Houston board because of posters like this.

They do this every Winter. And every Winter they are wrong.

[Cpv17]

-40s to -50 in Montana..jesus.

Look at the temperature gradients..incredible. The ridge over us and the southeast is holding strong.

That ridge will be undercut with that kind of cold

There is just an insane amount of cold coming into North America over the next 10 days, particularly the Western US....once that PV elongates/moves off to the east, this kind of cold usually overwhelms the entire lower 48. It's not just going to disappear.

Get ready, WINTER IS COMING!!!

Don’t we need the PNA to go more towards neutral though? That’s an extremely heavy airmass up there. At some point the dam has to break you would think..

[Brent]

I don't understand this PNA. Is it so negative it's a problem? Because, usually, I know we want a -PNA like that's been when we've had winter before

[Ntxw]

I don't understand this PNA is it so negative it's a problem? Because usually I know we want a -PNA like that's been when we've had winter before

The -PNA generally is a preconditioning requirement to prepare brutal cold into Western Canada. Generally it favors the buildup of cold in the Northwestern half of North America. In almost all of the severe Arctic outbreaks you have a prior -PNA episode in tandem with a -EPO. It is a requirement in McFarland's paper.

The issue is, during the big -PNA the SE ridge (sometimes south-central ridge) battles back. This is most evident early and very late in the winter when the wavelengths aren't as long. Eventually you do want the PNA to relax and the floodgates open.

During positive PNA the reverse happens, Western Canada has a massive ridge and they warm up. You'll see wxman57 constantly post W-Canada isn't that cold.

For Texas and the middle part of the country in general you want to start with a -PNA that creates the cold in W-Can. Then you want it to relax to unleash it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't understand this PNA. Is it so negative it's a problem? Because usually I know we want a -PNA like that's been when we've had winter before

A mildly negative PNA isn’t bad at all.

A severely negative PNA and a neutral to positive NAO can flex that SE ridge.

A severely negative PNA and a very negative NAO can actually displace the SEX ridge to Texas.

I’m general, a very negative PNA is no bueno for Texas unless that polar vortex lobe is positioned in a manner that overwhelms the ridge.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't understand this PNA is it so negative it's a problem? Because usually I know we want a -PNA like that's been when we've had winter before

The -PNA generally is a preconditioning requirement to prepare brutal cold into Western Canada. Generally it favors the buildup of cold in the Northwestern half of North America. In almost all of the severe Arctic outbreaks you have a prior -PNA episode in tandem with a -EPO. It is a requirement in McFarland's paper.

The issue is during the big -PNA the SE ridge (sometimes south-central ridge) battles back. This is most evident early and very late in the winter when the wavelengths aren't as long. Eventually you do want the PNA to relax and the floodgates open.

During positive PNA the reverse happens, Western Canada has a massive ridge and they warm up. You'll see wxman57 constantly post W-Canada isn't that cold.

For Texas and the middle part of the country in general you want to start with a -PNA that creates the cold in W-Can. Then you want it to relax to unleash it.

Said it better than me.

[Ntxw]

I don't understand this PNA is it so negative it's a problem? Because usually I know we want a -PNA like that's been when we've had winter before

The -PNA generally is a preconditioning requirement to prepare brutal cold into Western Canada. Generally it favors the buildup of cold in the Northwestern half of North America. In almost all of the severe Arctic outbreaks you have a prior -PNA episode in tandem with a -EPO. It is a requirement in McFarland's paper.

The issue is during the big -PNA the SE ridge (sometimes south-central ridge) battles back. This is most evident early and very late in the winter when the wavelengths aren't as long. Eventually you do want the PNA to relax and the floodgates open.

During positive PNA the reverse happens, Western Canada has a massive ridge and they warm up. You'll see wxman57 constantly post W-Canada isn't that cold.

For Texas and the middle part of the country in general you want to start with a -PNA that creates the cold in W-Can. Then you want it to relax to unleash it.

Said it better than me.

Basically step one is made, the -PNA is building extreme cold in W-Can and Northern Rockies. Now we want the PNA to rise and dislodge it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just realized I made a Freudian slip with “SEX ridge”

Guess we can call it that when the SE ridge comes over and starts to screw Texas winter lovers.

[Cpv17]

The clash of the titans:

[wxman57]

Above-normal temps in Alaska is never a good thing for Texas (in winter).

[orangeblood]

Most aggressive EURO ENS winter weather output for DFW I've seen so far this winter. And this doesn't even show numerous ice storms with some members as well....the pieces are beginning to enter the playing field!!

[HockeyTx82]

Above-normal temps in Alaska is never a good thing for Texas (in winter).

Are you saying cold might be coming?

[Cpv17]

Above-normal temps in Alaska is never a good thing for Texas (in winter).

You still have the SE ridge protecting you.

[Iceresistance]

Today is the official first day of Winter, but it does not feel like it outside . . .

[Ntxw]

Above-normal temps in Alaska is never a good thing for Texas (in winter).

Are you saying cold might be coming?

The cold left Alaska and sitting right in the backyard. Or should I say 'dammed' up right behind his wall. It is creaking. Is what he's saying. He is quickly putting up a make-shift earthen dam around the 45th parallel to thwart it.